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COURSE PROJECT

by discipline: Risk management

on the topic of: Analysis of risks in the activities of OAO Gazprom

Introduction

Section 1. Calculation of risk tolerance scoreOJSC GAZPROM

Section 2. Identification and structuring of risks in the activities of the organization

2.1 Structuring the considered set of risks in the activities of OAO Gazprom

Section 3. Development of limits on risks in the activities of the organization

3.1 Calculating the risk tolerance limit for an organization

3.2 Calculation of the risk limit for the main activities of the organization

3.3 Calculation of liability limits for risk management

3.4 Materiality limits for risk accounting

3.5 Limits on the level of risk materiality for the organization's objectives

Section 4. Assessing the risk level of a business plan based on a probabilistic approach

4.1 Assessing the level of risk in OAO Gazprom's business plan for 2013

4.2 Calculation of the risk measure based on the concept of VAR-estimation

Section 5. Analysis of significant risks based on the Ishikawa diagram

5.1 Root cause analysis of significant risks in OAO Gazprom based on the Ishikawa diagram

Section 6. Analysis of the level of risk in the activities of the organization

6.1 Assessment of the degree of total risk in the activities of the organization based on the theory of fuzzy sets

6.2 Point score the level of risk in the organization's activities

6.3 Multivariate model for assessing the level of risk in the activities of the organization

Section 7. Calculation economic efficiency risk management

Section 8. Benchmarking the Effectiveness of an Insurance Strategy

8.1 Evaluation of net assets at the end of the period in the case of a property risk insurance strategy

Conclusion

List of used literature

Introduction

Today in the world energy there are many large companies. However, not all of them are able to implement projects that have no analogues in world practice. This is only possible for those companies that, in addition to scale, are also distinguished by high efficiency, thoughtful strategy, active use of advanced technologies. Gazprom is just such a company. Yes, in 2012 Gazprom commissioned the largest Bovanenkovskoye field on the Yamal Peninsula. A new gas production center has appeared on the map of Russia, which will become the largest in the country. Bovanenkovo's gas begins its journey to consumers through a unique gas transmission system. Prior to this, no country in the world has implemented such gigantic projects in the Arctic latitudes. Gazprom marked the beginning of a new era in world gas history.

Gazprom is the only company in Russia capable of creating a modern gas industry in the East of the country from scratch. As part of the Eastern Gas Program, two gas production centers have already been formed - in Sakhalin and Kamchatka, and Yakutia is next in line.

Gazprom is not only a global energy company, but also largest supplier natural gas on the planet - continues to diversify the supply of this type of fuel to foreign consumers.

successes Gazprom is the result of a great deal of work. Daily hard work of thousands of employees Gazprom made it one of the most reputable and dynamically developing global energy companies in the world. This work is forward-looking.

Already today, it ensures the reliability of future supplies of the main energy carriers to domestic and foreign consumers. This is the key to dynamic development. Gazprom, confidence in tomorrow for its shareholders.

OAO Gazprom sees its mission in the reliable, efficient and balanced supply of natural gas, other types of energy resources and products of their processing to consumers.

The strategic goal is to establish OAO Gazprom as a leader among global energy companies by diversifying sales markets, ensuring the reliability of supplies, increasing operational efficiency, and using scientific and technical potential.

Principles of operation of OAO Gazprom:

Constant efficiency improvement production activities through the use of accumulated experience and scientific and technical potential;

Effective management of available resources (natural, human, financial, innovative and technological);

Diversification of activities through high-performance projects that ensure the creation of high value-added products;

Observance of the interests of all shareholders of OAO Gazprom;

Improvement of corporate governance;

Increasing the transparency of financial and economic activities;

Personal responsibility of managers for making managerial decisions;

Minimization of the specific negative technogenic impact on the natural environment.

Competitive advantages of OAO Gazprom:

Rich raw materials and production base Companies;

Unique one system gas supply of Russia, providing the ability to quickly respond to changes in any of its links, including existing gas, gas condensate and oil and gas condensate fields, main gas pipelines with compressor stations installed on them, underground gas storage facilities, gas processing plants and distribution stations, allowing for guaranteed gas supplies consumers in Russian Federation and abroad;

Deep vertical integration Companies;

Profitable geographical position between the countries of Europe and Asia;

Years of experience working with foreign partners and a reputation as a reliable supplier;

Portfolio of long-term contracts for the supply of gas to European consumers;

Large production, research and design potential.

Risk management is one of the tools to improve the quality of decision making and sustainable development Gazprom Group. Company purposefully forms a system that allows you to clearly identify existing risks, inform stakeholders about them and minimize possible negative consequences for Gazprom.

OAO Gazprom's risk management within the framework of a unified corporate system is defined as a continuous cyclical process of making and implementing managerial decisions, consisting of identifying, assessing, responding to risks, controlling efficiency, and planning activities to manage and monitor risks, built into the overall management process company. This process is aimed at optimizing the magnitude of risks in accordance with the interests of OAO Gazprom and extends to all areas of its practical activities.

Development Companies in the direction of vertical integration and diversification of activities, as well as the improvement of global corporate governance practices require the appropriate development of the corporate risk management system.

Tasks for the development of the risk management system

Ensuring management decision-making based on complete information about risks;

Timely response to critical risks;

Monitoring the main risks that can significantly affect the achievement of goals Gazprom Group;

Improving the quality of disclosure of information about the risks to which Gazprom Group;

Planning and budgeting of activities, taking into account complete information about risks.

Chapter1. Calculation of the risk tolerance assessment of OAO GAZPROM

Approximate (expert) calculation is one of the simplest and most understandable methods for assessing the level of risk tolerance of an organization.

As a rule, ranges of deviations from such indicators as:

1. EBITDA- within 1-3%;

2. flow Money - within 5-10%;

3. profit available to shareholders- within 3-5%.

1. CalculationEBITDAcarried out according to the formula:

EBITDA= EBIT + Depreciation deductions for material and intangible assets - Revaluation of assets, (1.1)

Where, EBIT = Net income + (Income tax expense - Income tax refund) + (Extraordinary expenses - Extraordinary income) + (Interest paid - Interest received), (1.2)

Operating profit or EBIT (abbreviated from English. Earnings before interests and taxes) - Profit, before taxes and interest on borrowed funds are deducted from it.

Operating profit (EBIT) is the difference between gross profit And operating costs. The profit of an economic entity as a result of the main economic activity. Represents the balance after deducting operating overheads (rent, depreciation for buildings and equipment, fuel and other operating expenses) from trading income.

2. Cash flow calculation.

Cash flow (Cashflow) is the difference between the cash receipts and disbursements of the organization for certain period time (usually - for the financial year).

There are various indicators of cash flow.

· Gross cash flow (Grosscashflow) - the difference between cash receipts and payments of the company (usually at the end of the financial year). Gross cash flow is the money that a company keeps for investments, payment of dividends, payment of taxes.

The total cash flow ( Totalcashflow) - sum cash flows from operating, investment and financial activities enterprises.

free cash flow ( Freecashflow) - the cash flow that the company has after financing all the investments that it considers appropriate to make. Free cash flow is defined as operating income after taxes plus depreciation minus investments. It is believed that the presence of a significant amount of free cash flow is attractive to persons who buy controlling stakes (raiders).

· Net cash flow (Netcashflow) - the difference between the amounts of receipts and payments of funds of the company for a certain period of time. Net cash flow is calculated taking into account payments, dividends and taxes.

Cash flow risk (Cashflowrisk) - the risk of changes in the amount of future receipts and payments of funds associated with monetary financial instruments.

3. Calculation profit available to shareholders or net income (Earning).

Net income is financial indicator activities of the organization, projected for the period under review and reflected in the form No. 2 of the financial plan.

Keep in mind that net income (NI) is allocated to:

· payment of dividends on preferred shares (Dps);

· earnings available to ordinary shareholders (PC5).

Profit available to holders of ordinary shares (PC5), in turn, is distributed by the decision of the meeting of shareholders to:

· dividend payments on ordinary shares (Dcs);

· reinvested (i.e. retained) earnings (RP).

Analytically it looks like this:

N.I.= D ps + PCS= D ps + D cs + RP, (1.3)

When carrying out project calculations, the student is recommended to use the indicator net profit to assess the level of tolerance of the selected object.

For the purity of calculations for the project, the student can use:

A measure of earnings available to ordinary shareholders (PCS), which is calculated using the formula:

PCS= N.I. - D ps , (1.4)

· indicator of undistributed (residual) profit.

Revaluation of assets in organizations can be carried out once at the end of the year. Therefore, it is advisable (and mandatory) to calculate EBITDA for an annual period (in particular, for 2010). As a rule, this affects companies for which this indicator is not reflected in the media: in particular, public companies whose shares are traded on the RTS non-listed, that is, those that are not included in the listings A1, A2, B, C and I.

Tolerance assessment.

I. Tolerance calculation based onEBITDA:

1) Calculation of EBITDA for 2012

EBITDA = 1.716 trillion rub.

a) 1% of EBITDA: 0.01 * 1.716 trillion rub. = 17,160,000,000 rubles.

b) 2% of EBITDA: 0.02 * 1.716 trillion rub. = 34,320,000,000 rubles.

c) 3% of EBITDA: 0.03 * 1.716 trillion rub. = 51,480,000,000 rubles.

1) Calculation of EBITDA for the first half of 2013

EBITDA = RUB 907.5 billion

a) 1% of EBITDA: 0.01 * 907.5 billion rubles = 9,075,000,000 rubles.

b) 2% of EBITDA: 0.02 * 907.5 billion rubles. = 18,150,000,000 rubles.

c) 3% of EBITDA: 0.03 * 907.5 billion rubles. = 27,225,000,000 rubles.

II. Tolerance calculation based on cash flow

As an indicator of cash flow in this calculation, the indicator of net cash flow (Net cash flow) is taken.

Options for assessing tolerance by2012:

NCF= 358 246 098 338 rub.

a) 5% of NCF = 0.05 * 358,246,098,338 rubles. = 17,912,304,917 rubles.

b) 6% of NCF = 0.06 * 358,246,098,338 rubles. = 21,494,765,900 rubles.

c) 7% of NCF = 0.07 * 358,246,098,338 rubles. = 25,077,226,884 rubles.

d) 8% of NCF = 0.08 * 358,246,098,338 rubles. = 28 659 687 867 rub.

e) 9% of NCF = 0.09 * 358,246,098,338 rubles. = 32,242,148,850 rubles.

f) 10% of NCF = 0.1 * 358,246,098,338 rubles. = 35,824,609,834 rubles.

for the first half of 2013:

NCF = RUB 191,610,810,000

a) 5% of NCF = 0.05 * 191,610,810,000 rubles. = 9 580 540 500 rubles.

b) 6% of NCF F = 0.06 * 191,610,810,000 rubles. = 11,496,648,600 rubles.

c) 7% of NCF = 0.07 * 191,610,810,000 rubles. = 13 412 756 700 rubles.

d) 8% of NCF = 0.08 * 191,610,810,000 rubles. = 15 328 864 800 rubles.

e) 9% of NCF = 0.09 * 191,610,810,000 rubles. = 17,244,972,900 rubles.

f) 10% of NCF = 0.1 * 191,610,810,000 rubles. = 19,161,081,000 rubles.

III. Tolerance calculation based on profits available to shareholders.

The indicator of retained earnings (RP )

RP= 191,400,000,000 rubles

Options for estimates for the first half of 2013:

a) 3% of RP = 0.03 * 191,400,000,000 rubles. = 5,742,000,000 rubles.

b) 4% of RP = 0.04 * 191,400,000,000 rubles. = 7,656,000,000 rubles.

c) 5% of RP = 0.05 * 191,400,000,000 rubles. = 9,570,000,000 rubles.

for 2012:

RP = 357,800,000,000 rubles

a) 3% of RP = 0.03 * 357,800,000,000 rubles = 10,734,000,000 rubles.

b) 4% of RP = 0.04 * 357,800,000,000 rubles. = 14,312,000,000 rubles.

c) 5% of RP = 0.05* 357,800,000,000 rubles. = 17,890,000,000 rubles.

IV. The choice of a reasonable value of tolerance.

The closest estimates of tolerance for three of the above approaches were as follows:

For 2012:

Option Ib: 17,160,000,000 rubles.

Option IIc: RUB 17,912,304,917

Option IIIa: RUB 17,890,000,000

Projected values of indicators for 2013:

Option Ib: RUB 9,075,000,000

Option IIc: RUB 9,580,540,500

Option IIIa: RUB 9,570,000,000

Table 1.1 Calculation of tolerance for 2012

	Index		Calculation options

	1 716 000 000 000

	Net cash flow





	Profit Available to Shareholders


	Reasonable level of risk tolerance, billion rubles

Table 1.2 Calculation of tolerance for the first half of 2013

	Limit levels for calc. tolerance, in %	Calculation options	Choice of option, convergence of estimates



Net cash flow





Profit Available to Shareholders


Reasonable level of risk tolerance, million rubles

Estimated tolerance for the current year 2013 is 9,075,000,000 rubles.

In relation to 2012, the level of tolerance of OAO Gazprom, according to our calculations, decreased from 17,160,000,000 to 9,075,000,000 rubles.

For the final value of the tolerance assessment, we take the EBITDA indicator for 2013: 9,075,000,000 rubles.

The choice is explained as follows: Since, according to the results of the analysis of the company's profitability (according to Table 1.3.), it can be concluded that the company has been consistently profitable over the past five years. In this regard, EBITDA was chosen as an indicator of tolerance.

Table 1.3 Profit of OAO Gazprom for the last 5 years

Chapter2. Identification and structuringrisks in the organization's activities

Identification and classification of risks depending on the profile of the selected public company.

Since the company in question is a company in the real sector of the economy(industrial, agricultural, construction, trade, services, etc.), you should limit yourself to the following set of typical risks:

1. Production risk;

2. Environmental risk;

3. Organizational risk;

4. Property risk;

5. Logistic risk;

6. Information risk;

7. Credit risk;

8. Currency risk;

9. Interest risk;

10. Price risk;

11. Legal risk;

12. Liquidity risk;

13. Risk of loss of reputation;

14. Political risk;

2.1 Structuring the considered set of risks in the activities of OAO Gazprom

Ranking of typical risks in terms of significance for OAO Gazprom for 2013:

1. Price risk;

2. Production risk;

3. Environmental risk;

4. Property risk;

5. Logistic risk;

6. Information risk;

7. Credit risk;

8. Currency risk;

9. Interest risk;

10. Organizational risk;

11. Legal risk;

12. Liquidity risk;

13. Risk of loss of reputation;

14. Political risk;

15. Risk of emergency.

In the ranked series, the most significant (dangerous) in terms of consequences for OAO Gazprom is the risk of reinsurance protection, and the less significant (dangerous) is the currency risk.

Based on the Fishburne rule, one can determine specific gravity of each type of risk (W i) in the total set of typical risks for OAO Gazprom, and having the form:

W i = 2(N - I + 1)/(N + 1) N ;

where, N is the number of types of risks in the considered population;

i is the serial number of a specific type of risk in the ranked series of risks.

in this case? W i = 1.

So, W 1 \u003d 2 (15 - 1 + 1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 30/240 \u003d 0.125

W 2 \u003d 2 (15 - 2 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 28/240 \u003d 0.117

W 3 \u003d 2 (15 - 3 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 26/240 \u003d 0.108

W 4 \u003d 2 (15 - 4 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 24/240 \u003d 0.1

W 5 \u003d 2 (15 - 5 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 22/240 \u003d 0.092

W 6 \u003d 2 (15 - 6 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 20/240 \u003d 0.084

W 7 \u003d 2 (15 - 7 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 18/240 \u003d 0.075

W 8 \u003d 2 (15 - 8 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 16/240 \u003d 0.067

W 9 \u003d 2 (15 - 9 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 14/240 \u003d 0.058

W 10 \u003d 2 (15 - 10 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 12/240 \u003d 0.5

W 11 \u003d 2 (15 - 11 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 10/240 \u003d 0.042

W 12 \u003d 2 (15 - 12 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 8/240 \u003d 0.033

W 13 \u003d 2 (15 - 13 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 6/240 \u003d 0.025

W 14 \u003d 2 (15 - 14 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 4/240 \u003d 0.016

W 15 \u003d 2 (15 - 15 +1) / (15 + 1) 15 \u003d 2/240 \u003d 0.008

Table 2.1 Share of risk consequences in the total population

	Name of risk
	Price risk
	Production risk
	environmental risk
	property risk
	Logistic risk
	Information risk
	Credit risk
	Currency risk
	Interest risk
	Organizational risk
	Legal risk
	Liquidity risk
	Reputational risk
	Political risk
	emergency risk

Most likely ranked price risk, A emergency risk - least likely. It should be remembered that the probability of risk should not be equal to 0 and equal 1 , that is, the value of the probability of manifestation of risks is given 0 < p < 1,0. At the same time, different types of risks can have the same level of probability.

Table 2.2 Risk probability level in shares

	Name of risk	Probability level, in shares
	Production risk
	Information risk
	Price risk
	property risk
	Logistic risk
	Liquidity risk
	Reputational risk
	environmental risk
	Legal risk
	Organizational risk
	emergency risk
	Interest risk
	Political risk
	Credit risk
	Currency risk

The final table for two parameters:

Table 2.3 Summary table for two parameters

Name of risk	The share of risk in the total population, in %	Probability level, in shares	Risk designation
Price risk
Production risk
environmental risk
property risk
Logistic risk
Information risk
Credit risk
Currency risk
Interest risk
Organizational risk
Legal risk
Liquidity risk
Risk of loss of reputation;
Political risk;
Emergency risk.

The risk map of OAO Gazprom (Fig. 2.1) for positioning each risk in relation to the others in terms of the likelihood and significance of the consequences of the manifestation of the risk.

Fig. 2.1 Risk map of OAO Gazprom

1. Oil price risk. Revenues, profitability and future growth rates are highly dependent on the current prices of oil and petroleum products. Factors causing price fluctuations in particular include:

· international and regional supply and demand (as well as expectations regarding future supply and demand) for oil and oil products;

market uncertainty;

· weather;

· national and foreign state regulation;

• prices and availability of alternative fuels; prices and availability of new technologies;

· the ability of members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other oil-producing countries to establish and maintain certain levels of production and prices;

· political and economic developments in the oil-producing regions, especially in the Middle East;

· regulations and actions of the governments of Russia and other countries, including export restrictions and taxes;

· and the international and regional economic situation.

2. Production risk - this is the probability of industrial accidents and equipment failures due to physical and moral wear and tear, unreliable and unstable operation of equipment and other basic means and objects of labor used; technology deficiencies and improper selection of equipment parameters.

3. Environmental risks. Gazprom's production activities are associated with a potential risk of environmental damage or pollution, which, as a result, may give rise to civil liability and the need to carry out work to eliminate such damage. The Company is fully aware of its responsibility to society for creating safe working conditions and maintaining a favorable environment, constantly monitors its activities in order to ensure compliance with relevant environmental standards, and implements environmental protection programs.

4. property risk. The possibility of material losses as a result of damage, destruction or theft of one or another property belonging to a person or organization.

5. logistics risk. This risk arises in all types of logistics activities associated with the production of products, goods, services, their sale, commodity-money and financial transactions, commerce, the implementation of socio-economic and scientific and technical projects, practice shows that this risk can be reduced, and its consequences, depending on the circumstances, are mitigated or eliminated using various methods.

6. information risk. This risk involves the risk of loss or damage as a result of the company's use of information technology. In other words, IT risks are associated with the creation, transmission, storage and use of information using electronic media and other means of communication.

7. credit risk. The Company's management pays special attention to the credit risk management process. Gazprom has implemented a number of measures to manage risk, including: assessing the creditworthiness of counterparties, setting individual limits depending on financial condition counterparty, control of advance payments, activities for working with receivables by business areas, etc.

8. currency risk. The main part of OAO Gazprom's gross proceeds is formed by export operations for the sale of oil and oil products. Accordingly, fluctuations in exchange rates against the ruble have an impact on the result of the financial and economic activities of the Company.

9. interest rate risk. As a large borrower, the Company is exposed to risks associated with changes in interest rates. The main source of borrowing is the international financial market. Most of the debt portfolio - credits and loans denominated in dollars. The interest rate for servicing a part of existing loans (the share is not fixed and may change) is based on interbank loan rates (LIBOR). An increase in these interest rates may increase the cost of servicing the Company's debt. An increase in the cost of loans for the Company may adversely affect solvency and liquidity indicators.

10. organizational risk. TO organizational risks the company considers the possibility of occurrence of undesirable events in the social and labor sphere: the occurrence of a shortage of qualified personnel, the risk of an accident or accident at work due to the fault of the employee, occupational diseases and etc.

11. legal risk. In connection with the changes made on December 28, 2012, significant changes underwent the Law "On Subsoil". The changes were aimed primarily at centralizing the powers to dispose of subsoil. From the point of view of legal risks, these changes may delay the procedure for registration of rights to subsoil plots transferred for use.

12. Liquidity risk. This risk losses caused by a mismatch between the maturities of liabilities for assets and liabilities.

13. In order to reduce reputational risks the company has implemented corporate standards for all key business processes, including information disclosure, and provides effective control over their implementation. Constructive relations are being built with the media, press conferences are regularly held.

14. political risk. At present, the political situation in Russia is stable, which is characterized by the stability of the federal and regional branches of government.

15. emergency risk . The oil and gas industry is a potentially hazardous industry. Volatile substances are one of the main air pollutants. organic compounds, whose share in emissions reaches 20%. A large number of water used in technological processes leads to pollution Wastewater. Pollutants also include oil sludge generated during the construction of oil and gas wells, during the development and operation of fields; wastewater containing oil products generated during the cleaning of tanks, tanks and other equipment. The storage of some types of waste is associated with pollution of natural water bodies, many storage facilities are overfilled or require revision. Measures to modernize the production of the oil and gas complex include the management of technogenic risks; development of recycling water supply for industrial enterprises with wastewater recirculation and with stable operation of the system, taking into account the delays in changing the controlled parameters of the liquid in the pipeline system, etc.

Chapter3. Development of limits forrisks in the organization's activities

3.1 Calculating the risk tolerance limit for an organization

The acceptable risk limit for an organization is a measure of an organization's willingness to accept risk while maintaining sufficient stability of strategic target indicators (STI) and planning and control indicators (PKP) of their activities.

The organization's acceptable risk limit (ARC) should be set at the level of acceptable risk capital (ARC):

The acceptable risk limit for an organization can be calculated using the following formula:

LDR \u003d 0.05 * K + 3 * 0.10 * P in

where, K - the value of the organization's capitalization at the beginning of the period under review or at the end of the previous one;

P in - the value of the gross or balance sheet profit of the organization for the previous period.

Then the limit of acceptable risk will be:

LDR \u003d 0.05 * 788 309 652 400 rubles. +3*0.1*195 109 816 100 rub. = 39,415,482,620 rubles. + 58 532 944 830 rub. = 97 948 RUB 427,450

Thus, in 2013 under review, OAO Gazprom can afford to form allowable risk capital in the amount of RUB 97,948,427,450.

3.2 Calculation of the risk limit for the main activities of the organization

Limits on risk in the areas of activity of the organization are reflection of the system of priorities in the development of the organization's activities and can be determined both independently and depending on the proportions in which allocation of the organization's budget.

aim definitions limit on risk in the areas of activity of the organization is allocation of allowable risk capital (ARC) in accordance with the development strategy of the organization.

Limit on risk in a certain area of the organization's activities defines admissible deviation actualvalues of STsP and PKP fromplanned.

When calculating the risk limit in the direction of the organization's activities taken into account the specifics of each area of activity and the relationship of this area with others.

The amount of risk limits by line of business ( ?LRND i) is Affordable Risk Capital (ARC) of an organization:

?LRND i = DRC

therefore, is equal to the organization's acceptable risk limit:

?LRND i = LDR

Thus, the value of the risk limit in the i-th direction of the organization's activity can be calculated according to the formula:

LRND i = ( EBITDA i / EBITDA) * ldr

Table 3.1 Indicators of OAO Gazprom's production segments by areas of activity for 2013

	Exploration and production	Processing, marketing and distribution	Elimination	Consolidated data
Revenue from sales to external customers
Intersegment revenue


Capital investments
Wear, depletion and amortization

Of the information provided on OAO Gazprom, the most revealing are information on EBITDA.

a) in the direction of exploration and production:

LRND R&D = ( RUB 21,378 million / RUB 107,654 million) * RUB 97,948,427,450 = 19 450 661 214 rubles.

b)in the direction of processing, marketing and sales:

LRND PM&S = ( RUB 86,276 million / RUB 107,654 million) * RUB 97,948,427,450 = 78,497,766,235 rubles.

3.3 Calculation of liability limits for risk management

Limits of liability for risk management are used as criterion for making a decision about the owner of the risk.

Target definitions limit of responsibility for risk management - distribution of the company's risk capital among the owners of individual risks and risk portfolios.

Limit of liability for risk management (LRRM) provides the owner of a specific risk or portfolio of risks the right to take risk when making a decision within this limit.

The sum of all liability limits of all risk owners and risk portfolios (?LORM j) is allowed risk capital (ARC):

?LOUR j = DRC

hence, is equal to the organization's acceptable risk limit:

?LOUR j = ?LRND i

?LOUR j = LDR

Management of the entire set of risks in the organization is carried out in such a way that the actual risk capital of the organization, i.e. the aggregated indicator of the impact of all risks of the organization did not exceed allowable risk capital.

The distribution of liability limits by owners of risks and risk portfolios, as a rule, is made in accordance with the priorities in the development of the organization, its plans, policies and strategies in a particular area of activity.

Based on this structure, it is possible to determine the limits of responsibility of the main top managers OAO Gazprom for 2013:

1. Deputy Chairman of the Board for Finance:

LOUR F = (0,075 + 0,0667 + 0,0583 + 0,0333) * RUB 97,948,427,450 = 22 851 RUB 368,124

2. Deputy Chairman of the Board for Production Activities:

LOUR P = (0,117 + 0,108 + 0,0083) * RUB 97,948,427,450 = 22 851 RUB 368,124

3. Deputy Chairman of the Board for Economics and Development:

LOUR E&R = (0,125 + 0,0117) * RUB 97,948,427,450 = 13 389 550 032 rub.

4. Deputy Chairman of the Management Board for Risk Management:

LOUR UR = (0,10 + 0, 05) * RUB 97,948,427,450 = 14 692 264 118 rub.

5. Deputy Chairman of the Board for Public Relations:

LOUR SO = 0,025 * RUB 97,948,427,450 = 2 448 710 686 rub.

3.4 Materiality limits for risk accounting

Materiality limits for risk accounting are determined in order to organize the accounting of only those risks that have a significant impact on the goals of the company.

As a result of the calculation, it was concluded that more than 15 types of risk have a significant impact on the company's goals.

RUB 97,948,427,450 /9,075,000,000 rubles = 10.7, that is, according to the calculation, more than 11 types of risk are significant for the company's activities.

· In the presented list of 15 typical risks, it is necessary to reduce them to 11.

Table 3.2

Name of risk	The share of risk in the total population, in %	Probability level, in shares	Risk designation
Price risk
Production risk
environmental risk
property risk
Logistic risk
Information risk
Credit risk
Currency risk
Interest risk
Organizational risk
Legal risk

3.5 Risk materiality level limitsfor purposesorganizations

Limits of the level of risk materiality for the purposes of the organization (LSCO) determined in order to classify risks according to the level of materiality into:

1. Strategic risks,

2. tactical risks,

3. operational risks.

Limits on the level of risk materiality for the purposes of the organization can determined both in general for each category of risk (strategic, tactical and operational), and separately for each STP and PEP.

The size of the materiality level limit for the purposes of the organization determined Howa value derived from the value of the MSP and/or PKP.

As part of the course project, it is necessary to determine the risk materiality limit for the strategic goals of the organization at the level of the loss limit for strategic risks in the amount of 5% of the level of capitalization and operational and tactical goals - within the limit of losses for operational, financial and hazard risks based on 10% deductions from balance sheet (gross) profit.

For OAO Gazprom, the materiality level limits for strategic and operational-tactical purposes will be respectively:

· strategic risks -39 415 482 620 rub.

· operational and tactical risks - 58 532 944 830 rubles.

Thus, the system of limits for OAO Gazprom for 2013 will be:

Table 3.3 System of OAO Gazprom Limits for 2013

	Name of risk limits
	Limit of acceptable risk for the organization	At the level of allowable risk capital in the amount of RUB 97,948,427,450.
	Limits on risk by lines of business of the organization	a) in the direction of exploration and production: RUB 19,450,661,214 b) in the direction of processing, marketing and sales: RUB 78,497,766,235
	Limits of liability for risk management	1. Deputy Chairman of the Board for Finance: 22,851,368,124 rubles. 2. Deputy Chairman of the Management Board for production activities: 22,851,368,124 rubles. 3. Deputy Chairman of the Board for Economics and Development: RUB 13,389,550,032 4. Deputy Chairman of the Management Board for Risk Management: RUB 14,692,264,118 5. Deputy Chairman of the Board for Public Relations: RUB 2,448,710,686
	Materiality limits for risk accounting	Conventionally, the levels of materiality of risks for their accounting are assumed to be the same; · The materiality limit for risk accounting is 9,075,000,000 rubles. · 11 risks affect the activity of the organization in the period under review.
	Limits of the level of materiality for the purposes of the organization	· strategic risks -39,415,482,620 rubles. operational and tactical risks - 58,532,944,830 rubles.

Section 4. Assessing the risk level of a business plan based on a probabilistic approach

4.1 Assessing the level of business riskGazprom's plan for 2013

If we take as a basis data from the company's website and other external sources about the performance indicators, then in the absence of direct information about the options for implementing the Gazprom business plan for 2013, we get:

IndicatorsEBITDA:

· Pessimistic option: 900.7 billion rubles.

· Most likely option: 907.5 billion rubles.

· Optimistic option: 918 billion rubles.

If we assume that the most probable option has the highest probability, and also assume that the optimistic and pessimistic options are equally likely, then we have the following values for the probabilities of these three options:

· Optimistic variant - 0.25;

· Pessimistic option - 0.25;

The most likely option is 0.5.

In terms of EBITDA:

Table 4.1

Implementation Options	EBITDA, trln. rub.	Probability, in fractions	Deviation from the average	Square of deviations from the mean	Deviation square product and probability	Standard deviation, billion $
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Most possible

1. Mathematical expectationEBITDAin 2013 will be:

М(Х) = ?Х i p i = 0.910 billion rubles

2. Variance of the expected result by indicatorEBITDAwill be:

D=? I p i = 0.02

3. Standard deviation of the indicator EBITDA will be:

e = vD = v0.02 = ±0.13 billion rubles

4. Coefficient of variability ( at ) in terms of EBITDA will be:

y \u003d q / M (X) \u003d ± 0.13 / 0,910 = ±0.14.

Thus, the level of risk in the developed business plan of Gazprom for 2013 is low according to the indicators obtained, and amounts to the PKP:

· only a little more than 14% offEBITDA;

4.2 Calculation of the measure of risk based on the conceptVAR-assessments

For OAO GazpromAstyleEBITDA amounted to ± 0,14.

Then the calculation of the risk measure indicator based on the net profit indicator can be carried out according to the following formula:

EAR \u003d (m - k * y) * E,

The confidence interval is accepted within 99%, then the value of the coefficient k is 2.33.

Then, EAR = (0 - 2.33 * 0.14) * 910,000,000,000 billion rubles. =-300 billion rubles

Table 4.2 Calculation of the risk measure

Name of risk	The share of risk in the total population, in %	Probability level, in shares	Risk designation	Possible losses, billion rubles	The value of the inherent risk, billion rubles.
Price risk
Production risk
environmental risk
property risk
Logistic risk
Information risk
Credit risk
Currency risk
Interest risk
Organizational risk
Legal risk

All risks whose magnitude exceeds the risk tolerance level (equal to the risk materiality limit for accounting) are subject to adequate action. To resolve this issue, it is necessary transform the risk map built in the second work into a monetary format in the perspective of an indifference curve, embodying the level of risk tolerance of the organization.

conclusions: According to the risk map of OAO Gazprom constructed above, it is obvious that it is necessary to develop adequate measures to influence the following two types of risks:

1. Price risk.

Chapter5. Analysis of significant risks based on the Ishikawa diagram

5.1 Root cause analysisrisks in OAO Gazprombased on the Ishikawa diagram

According to the previous calculation results, the number of significant risks in the activities of OAO Gazprom for the year 2013 under review included:

1. Price risk.

With regard to these significant risks for OAO Gazprom, it is necessary to carry out an analysis of cause-and-effect relationships based on the Ishikawa diagram. To identify the initial causes of their occurrence for subsequent work on the development of adequate measures of influence. Influences are carried out not on the risk, but on the causes and factors causing them.

Price risk belongs to the category of financial risks, therefore, among the basic sources of price risk, the following should be singled out:

1. Market (external and internal);

2. State;

3. Currency.

The main factors affecting the price risk in the Company's activities:

· economic and political developments in the oil-producing regions of the world;

· the current ratio of supply and demand, as well as the forecast of demand and supply of liquid fuel for the future;

· the ability of OPEC, as well as oil-producing countries that are not members of this organization, to regulate oil production in order to maintain the price level;

the military-political situation in the world;

· the state of the global general economic situation;

prices for alternative energy carriers;

The main goal of risk management in the Company is ensuring continuity production process and stability of activities by preventing threats and limiting the degree of impact of external and internal negative factors on the Company's activities.

Risk management is integral part internal environment JSC "Gazprom" and includes:

· introduction of a risk-based approach to all aspects of production and management activities;

· conducting a systematic analysis of identified risks;

· building a risk control system and monitoring the effectiveness of risk management activities;

· understanding by all employees of the Company of the basic principles and approaches to risk management adopted by the Company;

• providing the necessary regulatory and methodological support;

· Distribution of powers and responsibilities for risk management among the structural units of the Company.

In the event of a decline in world prices for oil products, there will also be (albeit to a lesser extent) a decrease in prices for natural gas supplied by OAO Gazprom to European customers, which will lead to a reduction in the Company's export revenues.

In the markets of European countries, OAO Gazprom faces competition from suppliers of alternative types of energy carriers (liquid fuel, coal). In addition, there is competition from other natural gas suppliers, especially Norway, Algeria, and the Netherlands.

The Company's goal in the field of risk management is providing additional guarantees for the achievement by the Company of strategic goals through early warning and identification of risks and ensuring the maximum effectiveness of measures to manage them.

Price risks. The main activities of Gazprom are oil and gas production, oil refining, and the sale of oil and oil products, therefore the Company is exposed to the risks traditionally inherent in the oil and gas industry, namely such price risks as:

· possible change in prices for purchased raw materials, services;

· possible changes in oil and gas prices;

Risks associated with possible changes in gas prices in the domestic market.

Prices for natural gas supplied to Russian consumers and tariffs for its transportation services provided to independent organizations are regulated by the state. At the same time, they are significantly lower than the prices that apply to buyers in Western Europe, even taking into account export duties, customs duties and transport costs. OAO Gazprom is taking steps to improve the pricing system for gas supplied to the domestic market. IN Lately managed to change approaches to the formation of gas prices.

The Government of the Russian Federation has acknowledged that the current regulated prices for natural gas are below the economically justified level and should increase at a rate that exceeds the rate of inflation. According to the decision by 17%.

According to OAO Gazprom's proposals, the Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2020 (approved by the Government of the Russian Federation in August 2003) provides for long-term forecast parameters for gas price changes.

OAO Gazprom's calculations show that the predicted dynamics of gas prices will not have a significant impact on other sectors of the economy.

If the Government of the Russian Federation continues the policy of gradually bringing gas prices in line with the actual costs of its production, transportation, storage and sale, as well as with the main quality parameters of gas compared to alternative fuels, this will make it possible to eliminate gas price subsidies for industries which are its consumers, to attract, mainly at the expense of the Company's funds, the necessary financial resources for the development of new gas fields and further development gas transportation system.

The Ishikawa diagram in relation to the price risk in the activities of OAO Gazprom is as follows:

Posted on http://www.allbest.ru/

Rice. 5.1 Ishikawa chart of price risk for a company

1.1 Factors influencing changes in gas and oil prices in external domestic markets;

1.2 Factors affecting the change in prices for petroleum products in foreign and domestic markets;

1.3 Factors affecting the purchased raw materials;

1.4 Factors affecting purchased services;

2.1 Violation of the subsoil use regime;

2.2 Loss of rights to use licensed areas;

2.3 Violation of the current legislation on subsoil use;

2.4 Rule changes customs control and duties;

2.5 Factors affecting the rate of export duty on oil;

The Company is constantly expanding the methodological base of the IRMS, including general recommendations on quantitative risk assessment of project planning and business planning, as well as detailed methodologies for assessing the most significant risks.

As of the end of 2016, the IRMS covers all significant assets of Gazprom Neft, including OAO SN-MNG. When launching new projects or acquiring existing assets, they are included in the IRMS perimeter.

In 2017, it is planned to continue developing regulatory and methodological documents on the analysis of certain significant risks and integrating risk analysis into decision-making processes, as well as expanding the training program for managers and employees of the Company on risk management tools and methods.

About the study

Ernst & Young's 2010 Key Business Risks Report is designed to provide executives with the most effective access to the information they need in a time-pressure environment. We have compiled a list of the main

risks for oil and gas companies, while giving Special attention key issues and the most significant trends in the development of the industry. With the help of Oxford Analytica, we have updated a chart that we have created and is already familiar to industry participants, designed to visually represent the top 10 industry risks based on their significance as of 2010.

In addition, detailed information on risks is provided in the sections dedicated to the following industry segments:

Transportation and storage - harvesting, preparation, transportation and storage
Processing and marketing
Oilfield services, including service companies and the supply chain.

This information can be used as part of a range of risk management activities aimed at helping the company address the following issues:

Identification of risks arising from the expansion of the company's activities, as well as threats associated with measures to reduce production and costs
Encouraging new ideas and out-of-the-box, innovative thinking
Prioritization of tasks in order to coordinate risk management activities at the corporate level
Reducing risks through the use practical approach best practices
Increase the effectiveness of strategic planning through a deep understanding of the current challenges facing the industry.

Introduction

Throughout the past year, the efforts of the global business community have been focused on solving the main issue - how to ensure effective risk management in the face of uncertainty. For oil and gas companies, this problem remains relevant to this day: the industry is still experiencing the consequences of the largest crisis in the global economy over the past 75 years. Despite the restrained optimism caused by the gradual recovery of the global economy, its condition remains vulnerable. Like the aftermath of a major earthquake, financial instability and unrest among market participants will continue to have a direct impact on the global economic recovery from the worst crisis since the Great Depression.

The global economy continues to show unsustainable growth. Moreover, the recovery is expected to take a further hit due to slower employment growth, continued contraction in lending, and challenges faced by high-risk currencies. The global economic crisis has slowed down economic growth in developing Asian countries, while the developed powers (primarily the US and European countries) are still in recession. According to many analysts, the process of recovery from the crisis will be difficult and uneven, with a full recovery not expected until 2011, and possibly later.

Companies in the oil and gas industry turned out to be influenced by the current economic situation in the world, against which the risks that we consider as part of the study this year arose. Almost all of the risks we identified are long-term. At the same time, the degree of their relative importance during each year will depend on the current state of the economy and market conditions. In fact, the problems that oil and gas companies had to face throughout the previous year, for the most part, still remain relevant. This year, the key position on the diagram is assigned to the risks associated with the uncertainty of energy policy. This is not surprising, since in 2010 the problem of regulatory uncertainty was the most pressing for companies in the oil and gas industry. The accident in the Gulf of Mexico further exacerbated the situation in the industry.

Oil and gas companies should look forward to the revision and expansion of safety regulations, as well as increased readiness to prevent and reduce environmental risks. Industry participants should carefully monitor the risks under consideration and other risks they face.

These risks should be re-analyzed to assess their impact not only on the current portfolio of assets, but also on future investment activities.

Due to the increased relevance social responsibility business, as well as the growing importance of economic factors and regulatory oversight, the need to move to manage these risks is becoming increasingly clear, both in order to ensure short-term profitability and long-term sustainability of oil and gas companies. It is for this reason that this report also presents the most effective ways, from our point of view, to minimize risks by improving the capital management strategy, investing in technology development, streamlining processes related to financial and operational activities, etc.

We hope that the factual information presented in this report and our recommendations on the issues discussed will be useful to you and your business. We hope that the results of our research will accelerate the process of further improvement of your own strategy for identifying and minimizing risks.

Ernst & Young Business Risk Diagram

The Ernst & Young Chart is a simple tool to visualize the top 10 business risks for a company or industry. The central area of the chart places the risks that, according to the interviewed analysts, will be of greatest importance to the leading international companies in the oil and gas industry next year.

Assessing the significance and prioritization of risks

Experts from the oil and gas industry took part in the study, whose task was to identify the main business risks in 2010. We asked the study participants to focus on the risks faced by leading international oil and gas companies. We asked each expert to explain why the respective risk was considered important, how it has changed from last year, and how it affects the company's value drivers. Based on the results of the survey, a list of risks for companies in the oil and gas industry was compiled, which we consider to be exhaustive.

The diagram is divided into four segments: financial risks, compliance risks, strategic and operational risks. The risks of non-compliance with legal requirements are related to politics, legal issues, regulations and corporate governance. Financial risks arise as a result of the instability of markets and the economy as a whole. Strategic risks are due to the nature of interaction with customers, competitors and investors. And finally, operational risks affect the processes, systems, people and value chain of the company as a whole.

Top 10 risks for oil and gas companies

Cost containment (4)
Price volatility (3)
Lack of human resources (6)
Supply breaches (9)
Mutual duplication of services offered by international oil and oilfield service companies
New operational difficulties, including those associated with working in unexplored conditions ( new risk).

According to the general opinion, the degree of relevance of this risk has increased compared to the previous year (the risk has risen from the second to the first position). This year, there remains some uncertainty about energy policy priorities. This is partly due to the unclear results of the December 2009 Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, as well as the failure of the United States

develop a clear energy policy. The environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico has further complicated energy policy decision-making in all regions. Energy Policy Uncertainty

reduces the effectiveness of measures for planning activities, forming an investment strategy and ensuring resilience to changes in supply and demand. This, in turn, increases the likelihood of an imbalance in supply and demand due to a slowdown in investment activity. In general terms, the lack of certainty about upcoming changes in legal and regulatory requirements will negatively affect the further development of the industry and make it difficult to make long-term investments.

Applying a structured approach to communication political leaders and the general public about the need for a coherent and consistent energy policy, as well as lobbying this issue in political circles and society. This is a long-term goal that will require significant resources to achieve.
Understanding and ability to predict the direction of further development of the energy policy of the country in which the company operates. For these purposes, it may be necessary to involve local political consultants, which is relevant even for small enterprises.
Implementation of a number of large-scale initiatives aimed at ensuring compliance with legal requirements and the development of new reporting forms, as well as other activities that facilitate adaptation to anticipated changes in the regulatory framework. It also seems appropriate to consider the issue of transferring a certain part of production activities to countries and regions with lower costs associated with ensuring legal requirements.

2. Access to reserves: political constraints and competition for proven reserves

By analogy with 2009, ensuring access to sufficient hydrocarbon reserves at a reasonable cost is still considered one of the main challenges for industry participants. Many oil and gas fields are located in remote areas (tar sands in Canada, fields in the Arctic and deep water fields). This not only significantly increases the cost of exploration and production, but also leads to an increase in the risks associated with the need for additional capital investments.

Perhaps more importantly, companies will have to face a range of political pressures that could potentially limit or eliminate their access to such deposits. In the United States, for example, changes to tax laws and regulations to subsidize the production of electric vehicles, renewable energy sources, and other alternative fuels could lead to a slowdown in the industry. In the case of developing countries, political instability and the nationalization of natural resources can cause interruptions in their supply.

At the same time, competition for access to new fields is expected to intensify among international and national oil companies. Unlike international oil companies, national enterprises have a number of significant advantages: support from the government and state investment funds, as well as geographical proximity to the markets of Asian countries with emerging economies. It will also serve as a source of additional significant risks for international oil companies.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

Dedicating time and resources to a comprehensive risk analysis of the operating environment in which the company operates. There are no identical operating conditions. In order to better adapt to the political situation of a particular country and use existing opportunities as efficiently as possible, a company can find a local partner.
Expanding access to the resource base by increasing the number of joint ventures and reassessing the profitability of current operations. In addition, the risk of losing access to major natural resource deposits in the event of price increases or political instability can be minimized by strengthening cooperation with NOCs through alliances and partnerships.
Consideration of alternative possibilities. Although for some time oil will remain among the important species raw materials, companies should put the situation in perspective. Gas is likely to become a more important energy component as it is cheaper compared to renewables. The main problem with gas today - the location of fields and the complexity of transportation - will be solved as technologies improve and new infrastructure is created.

Failure to take action to reduce the adverse impact on environment against the background of the fact that oil is considered one of the main sources of pollution, is fraught with serious reputational risks.

3 . Cost containment

Risks associated with the need to contain growth in costs moved up one notch, moving from fourth position last year to third this year. Ensuring effective cost control allows you to optimize cash flows. Against the backdrop of the current situation in the global economy, a number of companies are guided by such a strategy, striving to maintain the level of profitability.

However, regardless of the strategy used, the implementation of cost containment measures always involves a certain degree of risk associated with a negative impact on the return on invested capital (ROI). In addition, the implementation of such measures can lead to disruptions in operations, adversely affect the company's revenue, relationships with customers and the quality of fulfillment of obligations under supply contracts. In 2009, as the financial crisis unfolded, many companies focused on sustaining profit levels, but as the economy recovers, the focus should be on how to sustainably cut costs. Going forward, once the economy returns to its previous pace, business leaders should consider managing the risks associated with rising costs as a result of inflation. In the future, operating and production costs for oil and gas companies are bound to increase, especially given the possible entry into force of new requirements in the field of safety and environmental protection.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

An effective measure is to reduce operating costs. This means streamlining processes, making better use of shared services including IT, improving business processes and, wherever possible, reducing costs across the supply chain.
Ensure accountability of managers responsible for implementing cost reduction programs. The company must be able to communicate effectively about the strategy and implementation plan. Businesses are encouraged to align all cost reduction initiatives with and follow an implementation strategy. Those companies that have already implemented cost reduction programs should regularly review the results of the measures taken.
Focus on initiatives to tighten governance processes working capital in order to improve liquidity ratios, the introduction of new technologies to improve the efficiency of operations, the outsourcing of activities that are not sources of income (for example, accounting, payroll and payroll).

This risk has moved up one notch, moving from fifth position last year to fourth this year. Against the backdrop of current trends in the global economy, many developing countries are experiencing a sharp decline in budget revenues from the implementation of public investment programs, as well as tax revenues. In this regard, oil and gas companies are expected to continue to face higher tax rates and other fiscal measures. It is possible that international oil companies will be forced to revise the terms of cooperation with national companies oil and gas industry, while in new business models the focus will shift towards national interests.

The risk of tightening the financial and tax regimes in the industry is also observed in countries with developed economies. Under the influence of economic and political factors, the governments of these countries are considering the possibility or have already begun the practical implementation of measures aimed at raising tax rates, reducing tax incentives for exploration activities, revising royalty rates, etc.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

Understanding the peculiarities of the national tax regime established by the tax legislation of the country in which the company operates. In emerging markets, there can be significant differences between tax law requirements and practice. Cooperation with a local tax consultant can be effective in terms of solving this problem.
Finding a balance between managing the risks associated with the tightening of tax requirements and the implementation of new investment opportunities, including scenario planning and analysis of tax risks, taking into account various economic conditions.
Optimize the functioning of the supply chain from a tax perspective by moving towards a unified approach that covers issues transfer pricing, business restructuring, entering into partnerships to obtain tax credits, and so on.
The importance of establishing good business relationships with local regulators and governments is especially evident when the playing field begins to change. In addition, it may be useful to have provisions for international arbitration in the treaty.

Over the past few years, there has been a trend towards an increase in the level of fluctuations in oil prices. The situation remains unchanged, even despite the measures taken by the regulators to limit speculative trading in oil futures.

The risk associated with climate change and environmental issues has moved from seventh position to fifth. Despite the fact that the debate about climate change, in particular global warming on the planet as a result of greenhouse gas emissions, continues to this day, the governments of a number of countries have already taken certain regulatory and legislative measures that directly affect the interests of participants in the oil and gas industry.

The countries of the European Union (EU) have set a set of environmental targets and standards that, among other things, aim to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by at least 20% by 2020. In addition, initiatives are being implemented in the EU (eg the European CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme) to encourage the transition from fossil fuel generation to renewable sources. China has introduced a series of environmental regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting the use of atomic energy, as well as energy from renewable sources. These regulations are primarily focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from coal combustion. However, due to the size of the domestic market alone, as well as the growing influence of the country on the world stage, China's position in climate change negotiations will be of great importance both in 2010 and beyond (affecting almost all industries). .

In the United States, the possibility of introducing amendments to the legislation that directly affects the interests of oil and gas companies and involves, in particular, the adoption of measures to improve safety and tighten requirements in the field of compliance with environmental laws (including the application of civil law sanctions and the imposition of fines). Companies will still be forced to monitor such changes in legislation.

In the oil and gas industry, environmental problems have not only led to an increase in the number of relevant legislative initiatives, but also significantly complicated the process of predicting the results of applying new legal norms in the future. Regulatory policy is based on several conflicting objectives: energy security, resource availability and demand satisfaction. For example, an unexpected downturn in the global economy could slow down legislation or force governments to extend the deadlines needed to comply with legislation.

Oil and gas companies are the object of close attention not only from the state. Today, businesses in the industry are facing increasing pressure from shareholders to disclose information about environmental risks. Due to the oil spill environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, some investors expect full disclosure of the threats posed by offshore drilling and the possible environmental impacts of offshore drilling operations, as well as the measures implemented by oil and gas companies to prevent such accidents. , minimizing their consequences and managing the associated risks.

Going forward, serious global concerns about the state of the environment will continue to influence how companies in the industry make decisions regarding strategic development.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

Integrating climate change and environmental action into the core business model rather than looking at them in isolation. Climate change and environmental issues have become major business risks and should become common practice.
Conduct an enterprise-wide risk assessment by segment to ensure that effective risk mitigation and incident response plans are in place.
Proactive action to make changes and investments in line with expected tightening of greenhouse gas emissions regulations. Companies looking to lead the way in low-carbon energy are well positioned to do so today.
Partnering with the national oil company of the country of operation to ensure a better understanding of the requirements of local environmental legislation.
Improving the quality of non-financial reporting, including disclosure of information on greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, as well as on the environmental impact of companies' activities. Oil and gas companies may engage independent experts to verify the accuracy of their environmental disclosures, including performance and claims about the benefits of using their products or services.

6. Price volatility

Last year, analysts ranked the risk of price volatility as the third most significant strategic threat. In the current year, the relevance of this risk has noticeably decreased. The relationship between the price of oil and the price of natural gas has changed dramatically.

Throughout 2010, the price of "black gold" remained relatively stable, which was due to economical use, as well as a reduction in demand from the weakened economies of developed countries. The price of natural gas, however, is at a rather low level compared to previous periods due to the oversaturation of the natural gas market. In the gas industry, there are still serious differences in the pricing system in different regions. In addition, the differences also relate to the volume of state subsidies allocated to the industry (in a number of countries). The formation of a single world market for natural gas is possible only if a higher level of flexibility in the choice of suppliers is ensured, the expansion and diversification of transport routes, as well as a further transition to pricing based on the principles of competition for gas produced in different regions.

The global economic recovery remains fragile. A slowdown in recovery could have a negative impact on demand. In addition, a sharp change in prices may occur under the influence of such factors as the transformation of the political situation or amendments to the current legislation, as well as as a result of geopolitical events. For various oil and gas companies, the problem of price volatility has a different degree of relevance. The most vulnerable in the face of declining oil and gas prices are those enterprises that take part in the implementation of capital-intensive projects. Falling prices not only lead to a reduction in revenue, but also reduce the company's ability to carry out off-balance sheet financing. On the other hand, rising crude oil prices will continue to weigh heavily on refiners' bottom line.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

A thorough reassessment of the investment strategy, including a review of the ratio of investments in exploration and production of oil and gas. This reassessment involves scenario planning for investments and asset sales based on low to mid-range oil prices, even if current oil prices are high. In addition, before investing funds, it is necessary to ensure that there is sufficient liquidity as a hedge against any potential price fluctuations.
Econometric modeling that allows you to better understand the trends in the development of the oil and gas market. With the exception of international oil companies, this technique is often overlooked by the industry, while being potentially effective in terms of predicting price fluctuations.
Applying sound management practices, including cost reduction, supply chain performance assessments, and reassessment of the investment plan and revenue forecast.
To ensure higher profitability and reduce costs, companies may consider applying a hedging strategy, and tax planning to optimize cash flows.

7. Lack of human resources

The problem of shortage of highly qualified personnel remains relevant regardless of the economic situation. As the economy recovers, the industry will experience an increasing need for highly qualified specialists, the lack of which can lead to project delays or cancellations, reduced productivity levels and increased operating costs. The problem under consideration is very relevant for many NOCs against the background of their expansion of production activities and entry into new markets.

In developed countries, many of the leading engineers, senior managers and other professionals are approaching retirement age. However, there is no absolute certainty that there will be a sufficient number of specialists among the younger generation who can take their places. According to statistics published by universities in Europe and the United States, today there is a tendency to reduce the number of applicants entering engineering and geological and physical specialties. In the same time educational establishments developing countries are graduating a record number of such specialists. However, it must be taken into account that they will need many years of practical training during professional activity to ensure that their level of training meets the needs of the industry in the 21st century.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

To avoid duplication of functions and loss of performance, companies should define and coordinate personnel processes and manage them centrally. This will allow professionals personnel service focus on HR issues.
Creation of an attractive image of the industry for young professionals. For example, highlighting the industry's technological advances to inform the public that the industry is evolving, modernizing and progressing technologically.
Effective use of the experience of the older generation of employees. A creative approach to the issues of organizing pensions, aimed at retaining intellectual capital. Arrangements for delayed or gradual retirement and/or employing retirees as part-time consultants should be considered.
Professional Development employees at both the local and regional levels, coupled with investment in corporate culture and training staff in foreign languages. This will help to avoid language barriers and misunderstandings in the process of overcoming cultural differences between expatriate executives and local employees.

8. Supply irregularities

Supply disruption risk, which ranked ninth in the 2009 rating, remains relevant for oil and gas industry participants due to geopolitical events. The aggravation of the situation in the industry may be due to the consequences of the protracted conflict in the Middle East; sabotage of pipelines, refineries and port infrastructure; a new round of tension between Russia and the republics of the former USSR; the growth of political tension in Nigeria, as well as the general dynamics of development and the unpredictability of the political situation in the countries Latin America. A negative consequence of these risks could be an increase in price volatility, making it difficult to strategic planning and further investment activities. More significant problems may arise in the event of an unexpected expansion of the boundaries of interference in the work of the industry by the state, changes in the conditions for the implementation of joint activities, cancellation of contracts, as well as the occurrence of public unrest.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

Investing in more stable markets, even if that means lower returns, and using long-term hedging methods such as reallocating capital to more sustainable projects.
Implementing a flexible capital structure with a shorter turnover cycle that maximizes profits during periods of peak demand so that future downturns are pain-free. Emphasis on assets that maximize production between swings in the supply curve.
Revision of the terms of contracts in order to ensure the reliability of supplies. Companies should carefully analyze the current level of efficiency and potential of the current supply chain in order to identify inefficient links and other weaknesses.

9. Mutual duplication of services offered by international oil and oilfield service companies

In 2010, this risk lost some of its relevance, moving from eighth to ninth position. In some segments of the industry, this risk is seen rather as an integral element of the development of the industry. Today, the role of national oil companies is increasing in connection with the use of protectionist measures by a number of countries in order to stimulate the independent development of resources. This shift in emphasis forces international oil and oilfield service companies to compete with each other in the struggle for cooperation with NOCs. Oilfield service companies are increasingly being recruited to perform functions that have traditionally been the domain of international oil companies.

At the same time, the scope of competence of international oil companies seeking to partner with NOCs coincides with the competence of oilfield service companies. For international oil and oilfield services companies, such trends are not only fraught with risks. As their new features develop on international market energy carriers, along with risks, new opportunities will arise.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

International oil companies should take advantage of strategic advantage to oilfield services companies in the region program control, which is due to more extensive experience.
Oilfield service companies need to develop long-term strategies, taking into account the higher exposure to price fluctuations compared to international and national oil companies.

The technical challenges associated with changing operating conditions both above and below ground have distinguished the oil and gas industry since its inception. In connection with the gradual transfer of exploration work to deep-sea areas, including the Arctic region, this problem will remain relevant.

10.

Last year, we classified this risk as an emerging one, but this year it has entered the top ten. First of all, this is due to the gradual shift in the attention of industry participants towards the development of deposits located in adverse natural conditions (such as deep-water deposits, as well as deposits on the Arctic shelf). In many cases, the implementation of such projects requires the use of completely new technical solutions and strategies for operating activities, as well as the organization of special training and support for personnel directly involved in oil and gas production facilities. In terms of costs, as well as the degree of danger to humans, the development of such new mineral deposits far outstrips the cost (as well as the scale of possible negative consequences) of developing deposits in the past, thereby expanding the list of risks faced by oil and gas companies. In addition, there is no certainty that in the future prices will be kept at a level that justifies such a significant investment.

In addition, to minimize the risk of losing competitive advantage, oil and gas companies should continue to introduce new technologies. This implies the further implementation of strategically significant activities in the field of R&D, the regular allocation of funds for the modernization production capacity and development of cooperation with suppliers technological solutions.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

Further active financing of technological developments, including those aimed at improving the technologies used in the production of hard-to-recover oil and gas in unconventional fields. Leading positions in the development of new technologies for use in exploration, production and transportation of hydrocarbons are occupied by international oil companies. At the same time, further technological progress, which made it possible to assess the potential of extracting hard-to-recover natural gas reserves, was made possible largely thanks to the efforts of independent oil and gas companies. To remain competitive and provide a favorable environment for further development, oil and gas companies must continue to invest in technology improvements.
Creation of joint ventures with a clear governance structure that help minimize risks and create new opportunities for cooperation between IOCs, subcontractors, NOCs and local authorities state power. As part of joint activities, companies should regularly assess current and potential political risks and threats associated with counterparties in order to ensure timely action is taken to minimize such risks and effective management them.
Acquisition of strategically significant assets located in different geographical regions or in adverse natural conditions. Acquisitions like these can help expand operations, staffing professionals, and enable necessary work in the field of R&D.
Organization of effective management of investment projects. Coordination of activities in the field of project management and investment programs, taking into account the capital structure, as well as approved capital construction projects, will identify and minimize the risks associated with the implementation of a particular investment program. It will also improve the effectiveness of project cost controls and the accuracy of meeting deadlines.

Directly outside the chart area

We asked industry experts to identify risks (in addition to the top 10) that lie just outside the chart and that could become relevant over the next few years.

Energy Policy Uncertainty (2)
Access to reserves: political constraints and competition for proven reserves (1)
Cost containment (4)
Deteriorating financial conditions for companies (5)
Climate change and environmental issues (7)
Price volatility (3)
Lack of human resources (6)
Supply breaches (9)
Mutual duplication of services offered by integrated oil and oilfield service companies (8)
New operational challenges, including those related to working in unexplored environments (new risk)
Outdated oil and gas infrastructure
Competition from new technologies, including alternative fuels
Access to new markets with high growth rates

11.

Despite the fact that this year this risk was not included in the top ten, it still remains relevant for participants in the oil and gas industry. An outdated oil and gas infrastructure can not only jeopardize a company's operations, but also negatively affect its perception by society, as well as business relations with partners. For example, the deterioration of offshore oil and gas infrastructure facilities leads to the need for continuous monitoring and control of their condition, maintenance and repair work. At the same time, older refineries face greater challenges in complying with environmental regulations. Despite the understanding by industry participants of the urgent need to modernize outdated infrastructure and the volume of capital investments required for this, the risks that oil and gas companies will have to face if no action is taken in this direction are obvious. Financial assistance and support from the state is possible only for new projects, but the main burden of their implementation will be borne by individual companies.

12. Competition from new technologies, including alternative fuels

Advances in the energy industry, including the development of micro-energy and the construction of greenhouse-neutral houses, will help redefine the relationship between consumers and producers, as well as transform the energy market as a whole. It is expected that it is in this market that the demand for gas will grow most dynamically. In addition, continuous improvements in fuel cell and biofuel technologies are making them increasingly competitive with conventional fuels in terms of everyday use.

13. Access to new markets with high growth rates

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which unites 32 states, was created to discuss issues of socio-economic development and make decisions on them. Energy consumption is expected to skyrocket in non-OECD countries. At the same time, in the states that are part of this international organization oil demand is expected to decline. The growth of oil and gas companies will be constrained precisely by the limited access to these new markets for the provision of services for the processing and marketing of oil and gas. The above is confirmed by the conditions under which the transfer of oil refining capacities outside the OECD countries is carried out. As for international oil companies, their further growth will be associated with activities in the oil and gas exploration and production segment.

Main risks by industry segments

Unlike previous years, in preparing the 2010 report, we analyzed the top 10 risks inherent in the industry as a whole in order to identify the most pressing threats in the field of oil and gas exploration and production, their transportation and storage, processing and marketing. In addition, our analysis also touched upon the field of oilfield services. As part of the value creation process in the energy industry, the considered segments are interconnected with each other, but their business models differ significantly. Thus, despite the significance of each of the risks for the industry as a whole, the degree of its relevance for specific segments is different. In addition, risks are unevenly distributed across industry segments due to differences in priorities. For example, an increase in crude oil prices is putting upstream companies in an advantageous position, while refiners are losing their bottom line.

Below we would like to reiterate our own classification of industry segments:

Exploration and production - conducting exploration and production by international (IOC), independent and national oil companies (NOC)
Transportation and storage - field gathering, preparation, transportation and storage of oil and gas
Refining and marketing of oil and gas
Oilfield services (OSS), including service companies and supply chain.

Risks in oil and gas exploration and production

The activities of companies engaged in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons are carried out in dynamically developing regions of the world. Doing business in an environment of uncertainty negatively affects the ability of these companies to manage risk and make long-term investments. The following provides information on the key risks for companies whose main activity is the exploration and production of hydrocarbons (HC) raw materials. The risks are listed in order of their importance.

Energy Policy Uncertainty

Lack of certainty about upcoming changes in legal and regulatory requirements makes it difficult to implement the long-term investment strategy that is so necessary to ensure the sustainable development of companies involved in the exploration and production of oil and gas. Uncertainty about energy policy priorities remains this year. This is partly due to the vagueness of the results of the climate change conference held in Copenhagen in December 2009. On the other hand, the situation of uncertainty in the area under consideration is due to the inability of the United States to develop a clear energy policy.

In the United States, the administration of President Barack Obama is proposing a series of amendments to tax laws and other regulations that could lead to a slowdown in the oil and gas industry. Today, many countries are demonstrating their intention to revise the current safety standards for offshore drilling. This is due, among other things, to the recent disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, which resulted in a large-scale oil spill. In addition, the growing concern of the world community in connection with the use of hydraulic fracturing in the development of shale gas deposits may lead to the introduction of additional regulatory requirements.

An increase in legislative initiatives, a reduction in the frequency of reviews, and an increase in potential liabilities should certainly be taken into account when forecasting performance at the global level. The introduction of additional regulations is likely to increase costs. To ensure a stable level of profit and the ability to recover the costs of exploration activities that have not yielded results, companies should continue to look for opportunities to reduce operating costs, while acting in accordance with the requirements of environmental legislation and safety regulations.

Access to reserves: political constraints and competition for proven reserves

The risks associated with ensuring access to mineral resources are due to both geographical and geopolitical factors. The search for new deposits is forcing companies to move exploration into increasingly remote areas, thereby raising not only costs but also risks.

For developing countries, political instability and the nationalization of natural resources can cause supply disruptions. The instability of the geopolitical situation has led to the emergence of a number of risks associated with ensuring access to reserves. In the case of international oil companies, the profitability of their activities in developing countries will depend on the availability of opportunities to ensure stable access to hydrocarbon reserves. Unfortunately, even when international oil companies gain access to reserves, they do not always have the opportunity to start developing them. This problem is especially acute in regions that are characterized by the nationalization of natural resources and a sharp change in the political regime. Strong competition from NOCs puts international oil companies in even greater uncertainty about the sustainability of access to resources and, to a lesser extent, reducing the profitability of the project.

Companies involved in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons should also ensure a balanced ratio of oil and natural gas reserves. Compared to oil, natural gas is considered a relatively environmentally friendly fossil fuel. It is estimated that Russia, the Middle East, North America, Africa and other regions of the planet have natural gas reserves so large that they will be enough to meet world demand for the next century, and possibly longer. In addition, today natural gas is seen as a kind of bridge that facilitates the transition to a low-carbon economy. Gas companies have great potential for further development, since natural gas can become the main fuel for a number of industries, including electricity, heating and transport. The growing importance of natural gas will force many oil and gas companies to rethink their investment policy priorities. Even those companies whose activities today are exclusively related to oil have already begun (or, with a high degree of probability, will begin) to show an active interest in natural gas production.

Price Volatility

The price of oil remained relatively stable throughout 2010, driven by moderate consumption as well as reduced demand from recessionary developed countries. However, it should be noted that the global economic recovery is still fragile. Any slowdown in the pace of recovery could lead to lower global oil prices. As a result of falling prices, there is not only a reduction in revenue - the company's ability to finance is limited. As for natural gas, its prices remain at extremely low levels, despite a slight increase noted in recent times. The decline in the price of natural gas calls into question the profitability of the development of many fields.

Climate change and environmental issues

In the oil and gas industry, environmental concerns have not only led to an increase in new legislation, but have also made it much more difficult to predict their future application. At the core state regulation there are several conflicting tasks: ensuring energy security, availability of resources and meeting demand. The value of a particular task can change at any time. An unexpected downturn in the global economy, for example, could cause a suspension of legislative activity or force governments to extend the deadlines needed to meet regulatory requirements.

Today, conflicting opinions are actively expressed in the United States regarding the negative impact of the oil and gas complex on the environment, including as a result of the use of hydraulic fracturing technology in order to significantly increase the well production rate. The situation is similar in other countries, where issues of environmental safety and health protection are gradually becoming more and more relevant. In the future, when making decisions regarding the strategic development of companies in the oil and gas industry, they will continue to be forced to take into account the serious concerns of the world community about the state of the environment and security.

Deteriorating financial conditions for companies

Further tightening of tax requirements for exploration and production in 2010 and beyond seems almost inevitable. The reduction in budget revenues due to the crisis forced the governments of many countries to actively search for ways to replenish the state treasury. Companies involved in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons are an ideal source of such revenues, in connection with which currently many of them are forced to review their tax positions and develop new strategies to optimize the supply chain from a tax perspective.

New operational difficulties, including those related to working in unexplored conditions

Exploration and production under extreme conditions (eg in the Arctic) often forces companies to develop new technologies or finance their development. The need for additional capital investments, as well as the difficulties associated with the construction, operation and maintenance of oil and gas infrastructure facilities in such difficult environmental conditions, lead to increased risks. A fall in commodity prices below a certain level may make further exploitation of the deposit unprofitable. As demand grows with limited mineral resources the only way increasing the resource base and, accordingly, future profits is the exploration and development of deposits located in hard-to-reach areas with harsh natural conditions.

Energy Policy Uncertainty: The Consequences of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill and Their Impact on Offshore Field Development

The consequences of a large-scale environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico have affected companies involved in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons on the continental shelf not only in this region, but also far beyond its borders. Discussions on oil spill response and liability issues will obviously continue.

Oil and gas fields on the continental shelf are an integral part of the global fuel and energy system. From the point of view of the long term, ignoring such significant reserves or imposing a ban on their development seems unlikely. In addition to existing offshore fields, huge oil and gas reserves are concentrated in the deep waters of the World Ocean, on the boundaries of the territorial waters of Brazil, Africa, Southeast Asia and Oceania, as well as in the regions of the Arctic and Antarctic. However, there is no certainty that in the near future industry participants will be able to continue their activities in a number of existing and new areas. The resumption of activity will be possible only if the confidence of the world community in such projects is fully restored. The true causes of the Deepwater Horizon accident need to be identified and carefully analyzed. Appropriate security measures must be taken to minimize the likelihood of such a disaster occurring again.

Industry participants should prove to regulators and stakeholders that all relevant conclusions regarding the organization of measures to eliminate the consequences of the accident have been taken and in the future such measures will be taken quickly and efficiently, taking into account minimizing the negative impact on the environment. The following questions need to be considered:

1. Assessing the risks associated with the production of offshore oil and gas fields in the current period

All operating companies must conduct a comprehensive assessment of the technical condition of the production facilities used. In an assessment that should cover all critical equipment, particular attention should be paid to parameters such as the type of devices used, their actual age, maintenance history, etc.

In addition, the structure of the current technological process to include activities for regular testing and maintenance of critical equipment. As part of such an assessment, consideration should be given to upgrading or upgrading existing equipment to reduce risks in this area, even if such measures are not explicitly provided for by applicable law or regulations. And, finally, it is necessary to review the terms of contractual relations between partners and subcontractors to ensure that they comply with all requirements that ensure the safety of operational activities.

2. Assessing the risks associated with future offshore oil and gas production

When considering investment issues, organizations intending to participate in joint projects for the development of offshore fields should pay special attention to the following aspects:

When planning science-intensive projects, the implementation of which requires the use of advanced technological solutions, the issue of eliminating the consequences of possible large-scale disasters should be resolved, including the formation of an operational action plan and the provision of appropriate technical equipment.
Closer attention should be paid to whether the partner or subcontractor has relevant experience and knowledge in the implementation of similar projects.
The financial capacity of the partner or subcontractor should be carefully reviewed to assess its ability to finance clean-up obligations in the worst-case scenario.
When choosing a site for prospecting and exploration, it is necessary to take into account factors such as proximity to major settlements, environmentally sensitive areas and regions with intensive business activity.

3. Elimination of consequences of accidents

It is clear that the oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico has spurred industry participants to think about the most effective ways to prevent similar accidents in the future, how to stop oil leaks from a damaged deepwater well, and how to eliminate consequences. Today it is also obvious that the transition to the active development of deep-water deposits has led to the fact that the existing technical means and technologies for preventing and eliminating the consequences of accidents no longer meet modern requirements.

Industry participants should certainly share this experience, encouraging the establishment of nonprofit partnerships like the Marine Well Containment Co., a joint venture between ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, ConocoPhillips and Chevron. Among the priority measures to prevent

catastrophes similar to the one that occurred in the Gulf of Mexico, we can distinguish the improvement of the design of the plug, the development of special deep-water reservoirs and a highly flexible riser, which ensures the delivery of oil products from the damaged well to the surface. Equally important is the presence of ships for the collection and storage of oil products, teams of specialists whose tasks would include regular maintenance and inspection, as well as ensuring the constant readiness of equipment designed to eliminate the consequences of such accidents. The activities being undertaken today by industry players to enhance cooperation and mutual support should be complemented by involving regulators and stakeholders in the process. This will further convince the latter that the risks associated with exploration and production in deep water are under control.

Risks in the field of transportation and storage of oil and gas ("midstream")

The activity of companies in this industry segment is concentrated around the field gathering, preparation, transportation and storage of crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas. In general, companies involved in the transportation and storage of petroleum products are less exposed to the risks of volatility in energy prices compared to their partners involved in the exploration, production, processing and marketing of hydrocarbons. The following is information on the key risks for companies whose main activity is concentrated in the field of exploration and production of hydrocarbons. The risks are listed in order of their importance.

Cost containment

The problem of reducing the costs associated with the implementation of projects remains relevant for companies in the midstream segment, especially with regard to the planned expansion of the production infrastructure. Due to the need to develop new natural gas reserves (shale gas fields in the US, China and Eastern Europe) to meet growing demand, companies are forced to expand the infrastructure of the pipeline network, including the construction of new natural gas production and field gathering systems. The implementation of projects in the "midstream" segment, as a rule, is associated with a higher level of risks associated with the need to make significant investments in tangible assets. In this regard, the issues of ensuring the effectiveness of project management and reducing costs are of particular relevance for the successful implementation of the planned expansion of production capacities. This is one of critical tasks for companies, the decision of which will determine the ability of oil and gas enterprises not only to maintain, but also to expand the scale of production activities. In the long term, cost minimization will require continuous improvement in operational processes as well as a more effective resource planning strategy. The effectiveness of the company's policy to reduce operating costs will be of key importance.

No less important is the reduction of costs associated with the increase in infrastructure capacity. Companies in the industry need to constantly monitor the availability of external financing, address security issues in relation to tangible assets. In addition, international and transit risks must be managed and prepared for possible regulatory intervention, which could increase the cost of capital required for the project.

Energy Policy Uncertainty

The uncertainty of the scenario for the development of the energy industry and further actions by the regulatory authorities is the cause of very significant risks for the participants in the segment under consideration. At the heart of the policy of state regulation are several contradictory tasks: ensuring energy security and availability of resources, as well as meeting demand. The importance of a particular task can change at any time. Many regulatory requirements lead to increased costs, some of which cannot be compensated in a competitive environment.

Uncertainty in regulatory requirements may lead to delays in making decisions regarding investment activities. Moreover, initiatives by regulators may lead oil and gas companies to withdraw from investments or cause some of their assets to depreciate. Examples of the negative impact of this regulatory uncertainty include the Alaska natural gas pipeline projects and the proposed expansion of an oil pipeline used to transport Canadian tar sands to US refineries. The need to expand the pipeline infrastructure may become irrelevant if restrictions are imposed on drilling in the deep water zone. Another possible consequence of such a decision could be the depreciation of the existing infrastructure of the pipeline network. The same is true for the use of hydraulic fracturing technology. The imposition of restrictions on its use can significantly reduce the pace of development of new gas fields and lead to a revision of forecasts regarding the economic feasibility of projects for the construction of new potentially necessary infrastructure facilities designed for processing and transporting shale gases.

Climate change and environmentalProblems

In terms of environmental impact, this segment of the industry is also most directly affected by the amendments to legal acts regulating the amount of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The ongoing debate around the issue of regulating the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions data makes it difficult to predict possible outcomes in the long term. In particular, midstream companies should decide whether to calculate and account for carbon emissions in aggregate for all production units or separately for each of them. In addition, when considering the expansion of transport infrastructure through the construction of new facilities in environmentally sensitive areas, it is necessary to take into account public concerns about possible environmental consequences.

Risks in the field of processing and marketing of oil and gas

The growth of oil refining production in the world is gradually starting to exceed the level of world demand, which will force companies in the oil refining segment to reduce production volumes by eliminating obsolete and inefficient capacities from the technological process. This may entail additional costs associated with obligations to carry out nature restoration work. In addition, issues of ensuring operational security will remain highly relevant. The following is information on the key risks for companies whose main activity is concentrated in the field of processing and marketing of oil and gas. The risks are listed in order of their importance.

Energy Policy Uncertainty

Energy policies that encourage phasing out of oil for economic or environmental reasons will reduce demand and profitability. At the same time, the energy policy, which provides for a reduction in domestic oil production, will significantly affect the activities of exploration, production and oilfield service companies. Moreover, such a policy could lead to increased dependence on oil imports. In any case, the lack of clarity about the essence of energy policy is fraught with the emergence of a number of problems for processing and marketing companies.

Climate change and environmental issues

An effective energy policy, including climate change issues, can, depending on the structure, have a significant impact on the activities of oil refining and marketing companies. In the recent past, several proposals have been submitted to the US Congress to limit the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from industry through quotas. This policy is aimed primarily at companies in the fuel and energy sector. Acceptance of other proposals for the use of alternative fuels potentially means an additional burden for participants in the motor fuel segment.

Today, the EU countries, China and a number of other countries are assessing their own potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions or are implementing policies that stimulate the reduction of their emissions. In the future, the refining segment will retain its leading position as a stable and reliable source of motor fuel and feedstock for other industries. At the same time, refiners should take into account the market penetration of alternative fuels, which can be sold both together with traditional fuels and in parallel with it. This will diversify energy sources in the future, reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Successful development in this area, the ability to adapt to changes in the structure of demand and the requirements of environmental legislation will require companies in the oil refining segment to make significant investments.

Price Volatility

Portfolio management and investment strategy will continue to be affected by price volatility, which affects the bottom line of refiners and retailers. The pressure that the oil refining industry is experiencing in connection with the need to maintain the required level of liquidity is due to the fact that the volume of production capacities today exceeds demand. Construction of new oil refineries, as well as expansion current production over the past decade have led to an increase in production capacity to a mark exceeding the level of world demand. Active portfolio management in the oil and gas refining and marketing segment is traditionally inherent in large, vertically integrated oil companies. A similar practice today should be adopted by independent oil refineries. If the market situation and the goals of strategic development change, accordingly, there are changes in the requirements regarding the structuring of the asset portfolio. The portfolio structure should ensure the achievement of the performance goals set by management and shareholders.

Throughout 2010, all the efforts of independent refiners were aimed at providing liquidity and optimizing cash flows. Achieving profitability targets involves more than just improving margins. It's a matter of survival.

Access to new markets with high growth rates

Provided that the further recovery of the global economy is sustainable, refiners will directly benefit from a gradual, but at the same time, strong growth in oil demand. It will be critical for refiners and in particular for integrated international oil companies to be able to meet growing demand (primarily from Asian countries). However, it should be noted that in 2010 the problems caused by the uncertainty of the vector of further development of the global economy will continue to have a significant impact on risk management processes in the segment under consideration.

Outdated oil and gas infrastructure

The depreciation of oil refining capacities is the cause of a number of risks in the field of industrial safety, environmental protection and competitiveness. The longer refineries are in operation, the more difficult it is for companies to comply with all environmental regulations. In addition, due to the aging of refining capacities, companies are often unable to process viscous oils, which are becoming more common today due to the depletion of sweet oil fields. Both factors contribute to the growing need to build new oil refining infrastructure facilities or modernize existing ones.

Overcapacity and deteriorating infrastructure may warrant the consolidation of operations or the closure of certain refineries. In some cases, the closure of production facilities will be due to the high costs required to comply with regional regulations. The applicable regulations may differ significantly from state to state, and in federal countries such as the United States, even at the state level.

Some of the risks under consideration can be minimized through strategic investment. However, investments are fraught with risks of a different nature. For example, the investment policy of refiners may be aimed at upgrading the technological base to enable the processing of sour crude, but such a policy justifies itself only in markets that maintain a certain level of yield on crack spreads. From the standpoint of a single refiner, investing in the ability to process different grades of oil can ultimately prove to be both an effective and inefficient investment decision.

In 2010, the construction of new oil refineries will continue, especially in developing countries such as China or India. However, it should be noted that a shift in the timing of implementation is expected for a number of construction projects. At the same time, some projects will be canceled due to a decrease in demand for gasoline, tightening of credit conditions and general uncertainty about the further development of the global economy. In the United States and European countries, the situation is somewhat different. The increase in oil refining capacities will occur not due to the construction of new facilities, but due to an increase in the capacity of existing enterprises. In addition, many companies do not have the funds to properly maintain their aging infrastructure. As a result, a paradoxical situation is emerging - the industry is characterized by the presence of a significant production potential against the backdrop of the increasingly urgent problem of aging capacities.

Risks in the field of oilfield services

The development of oilfield services is still driven by competition between its participants in the development and development of new technologies. At the same time, in the segment under consideration, there is a shift in emphasis towards the establishment and development of partnerships with companies engaged in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons. The risks inherent in the field of oilfield services are no less significant than those that participants in other segments have to deal with. Below is information on the key risks for oilfield services companies. The risks are listed in order of their importance.

New operational difficulties, including those related to working in unexplored conditions

The risk of new difficulties arising related to the implementation of operating activities, including in unexplored natural and climatic conditions, is very significant for the participants in the segment under consideration. An increasing number of oilfield services companies are moving their activities to overseas regions with extreme environmental conditions. The specifics of the tax regime, the prevailing business practices and the problems associated with the need to staff at the expense of the local population when operating abroad can have a direct impact on the level of operational risks that an oilfield service company will face. The problems associated with the implementation of operational activities should also include the high degree of complexity of the project, the remoteness of the geographical location, the need to use new technologies and the possibility of negative environmental consequences. Moreover, today the task of ensuring that the interests of operating companies correspond to the interests of oilfield service enterprises acting as contractors is becoming more and more urgent.

Cost containment

The implementation plan of a project should include measures aimed at reducing costs in all parts of the supply chain. High-quality implementation of the project is the key to making a profit. As the complexity of projects increases, their implementation becomes more risky and difficult - both in terms of meeting deadlines and approved budgets, as well as in terms of ensuring an adequate level of quality and industrial safety.

Manufacturing and engineering companies typically have more than one choice when deciding on a source of supply. In this regard, an increasing number of oilfield services enterprises are calculating the relative cost of ensuring their compliance with legal requirements in the course of their activities. They often relocate production activities to developing countries where compliance costs legislative norms, production and so on may be lower. At the same time, when transferring operations to offshore jurisdictions, the requirements of local legislation should be taken into account when concluding contracts with NOCs in regions such as South America and Africa. The global financial crisis helped consolidate the practice of applying such requirements at the legislative level, thereby expanding the list of risks that oilfield service companies have to deal with. In case of violation this requirement the government of the country in which the activity of an oilfield services company is concentrated can impose a fine on it, force it to revise the terms of contracts, etc., up to and including a requirement to terminate activities in the country.

In addition, an increase in the number of regulations is likely to increase the cost of drilling operations due to an increase in the number of inspections and certifications, as well as due to equipment redundancy. Equipment manufacturers, for example, are expected to benefit from retooling, redundancy and accelerated depreciation processes. However general level demand for services and equipment could decline if rising costs and deteriorating economic performance force operators to cut costs. Increased cost of operations in such regions may lead to the direction of part financial resources to national or developed international markets.

Mutual duplication of services offered by international oil and oilfield service companies

As a measure to mitigate the risks associated with the need to reduce costs, some oilfield services companies have consolidated operating units or made asset sales or strategic acquisitions to strengthen their market positions. Individual oilfield services companies have implemented a number of measures aimed at expanding specialization in areas that have traditionally been perceived as an integral part of the core business of MNCs. This was done in order to expand the range of services offered by oilfield service companies. As a result, today there is a mutual duplication of services offered by international oil and oilfield service companies. In order to strengthen their own position in competition with IOCs, some NSCs have established joint ventures with non-competing companies, despite the fact that joint activities at the international level are associated with legal, political and economic risks. These risks require effective management both internally (i.e. directly by the companies involved in the joint venture) and outside the joint venture (i.e. in cooperation with NOCs and local authorities). With margins continuing to decline in this segment, many oilfield services companies will be forced to look for new ways to ensure profitability of their activities with the transition to risk management within new operating models.

Deteriorating financial conditions for companies

The tightening of taxation requirements is another problem faced by companies in the oilfield services segment. Oilfield service companies, most of which economic activity in international partnerships are increasingly faced with increasing tax burdens, as well as rising costs associated with tax issues in a complex supply chain operating under a variety of tax regimes. Individual NSCs are moving their headquarters to jurisdictions with more favorable tax treatment. We expect this trend to continue in the future as countries review existing taxation systems amid fluctuations exchange rates and changing market conditions.

Outdated oil and gas infrastructure

The costs associated with equipment and its maintenance, as well as compliance with safety requirements, will maintain current growth rates. This year, the risk associated with the deterioration of oil and gas infrastructure facilities was not included in the top ten, however, its relevance for the segment under consideration is still high, which is due to the need to ensure regular Maintenance aging oil and gas infrastructure. The security issues of infrastructure and equipment will undoubtedly remain fully relevant.

Climate change and environmental issues

For a significant part of oilfield services companies seeking to increase own share participation in the value chain within the current operations, the issues of environmental protection, employee health and safety have become more important. As deepwater offshore oil production systems develop and fields located in extreme natural conditions or remote regions are developed, oilfield services companies will be forced to re-evaluate existing and find new ways to reduce risks and better control the possible environmental consequences of their activities.

Typically, a risk is an event that is most likely to happen. As a result of this, various cases can occur - neutral or negative. Speaking about ecology, the level of probability of occurrence of a negative impact, negative consequences dangerous for human life, preservation of natural resources, historical, cultural and material assets associated with natural disasters, as well as other factors and constitute an environmental risk.

Risk management in general includes the adoption and implementation of management decisions. They should improve the workflow and increase the rate of positive consequences during the occurrence of risks. It is possible to understand the degree of environmental risk by assessing environmental events, disasters, as well as the impact of pollution on the environment.

Let's consider the results of work in the field of risk management using the example of JSC Atomredmetzoloto.

Organization of ARMZ risk management process

The company has made it a rule to carry out a risk assessment procedure at the planning stage, as well as to implement risk hedging programs.

To avoid unpleasant situations, the company is guided by the following aspects:

Modernization of technological equipment;

Compliance with all applicable regulations regarding the production and technological process;

Implementation of the controlling function, both on the part of departments and external organizations;

Civil liability insurance of enterprises to third parties and employees of enterprises.

JSC Atomredmetzoloto complies with all environmental impact standards and promotes environmental safety, which is what the government requires.

Unfortunately, it is worth noting that in recent times the natural environment has suffered greatly from human activities. Violating environmental requirements, we destroy, destroy, pollute the world around us. Take, for example, shale gas production. Much can be said about its harm to the environment.

For example, due to the fact that this activity is an environmental threat.

Classification of negative environmental impact factors

Pollution can be classified into natural and anthropogenic. Natural are caused by natural phenomena, such as floods, volcanic eruptions, etc. Anthropogenic pollution arises from human activities.

Management of environmental risks in the enterprise, as a rule, is associated with various types tasks.

For example, the joint-stock financial corporation Sistema conducts a quarterly analysis of the effectiveness of the risk management system and internal control, then evaluates the corporation and all subsidiaries, and then reports on this to the shareholders. An annual report is provided to members of the Board of Directors.

An integrated risk management system helps to identify risks at all its stages, analyze them and arrange them by management levels.

In 2013, Sistema's Board of Directors created the Internal Control and Audit Department.

The Department of Internal Control and Audit conducts verification activities in order to obtain reliable information about the actions. And another no less important element of the work of the Internal Control and Audit Department is the improvement domestic business- company processes.

key point effective system environmental risk management is the identification of risks and direct work with them. The question is how to manage environmental risks in order to ensure the highest degree of sustainability of all activities of the company - this contributes to success and reduces the rate of failure.

For environmental risk management processes, research results are of great importance. In the course of preparing the necessary environmental projects, all points must be taken into account. Both quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the risk must be taken into account.

A wide variety of regulatory documents are being developed to prevent or reduce risk. And the scope of these documents can apply not only to one company, but to the entire country. These include laws and regulations related to health protection, improving working conditions, ensuring road safety, standardizing the quality of goods sold, as well as reducing the negative impact that is a detrimental factor in relation to the environment.

Risk analysis and assessment plays a key role in building an effective response system. To analyze and assess environmental risks, it is necessary to identify hazards and causes.

Fulfillment of the conditions for the effective management of social and environmental types of risks will contribute to sustainable development companies.

The risk management process includes matching alternative projects potentially dangerous objects and technologies, identification of the most dangerous factors risks that affect this stage. Databases and knowledge bases for expert decision support systems are also being created. And this process also determines investments that are precisely aimed at reducing risks.

It is important to compare the results of the risk assessment. After that you can find different solutions to reduce them, given that each of these options is evaluated differently. It all depends on necessary costs for its implementation. And such actions are repeated until the best solution to the problem is chosen.

Modern management literature replete with different approaches. In particular, many companies use ISO 9000 (international quality management standard), ISO 50001 (energy management standard), ISO 22000 (international food safety management standard) and others. With regard to the topic of ecology, ISO has released standard 14,000 - environmental management.

Adverse economic conditions may lead to a slowdown in the growth rate of energy demand and lead to an increase in the cost of borrowed capital.

In order to increase income from the sale of energy products, PJSC Gazprom diversifies markets and distribution channels, and expands the areas of natural gas use. To ensure financial stability, PJSC Gazprom is optimizing its debt burden.

The EU policy in the gas market is aimed at diversifying the sources of gas supplies and increasing the share of gas exchange trading, which affects PJSC Gazprom as one of the main suppliers of natural gas to the EU countries.

Long-term contracts allow PJSC Gazprom to ensure the reliability and flexibility of gas supplies. In addition, in order to minimize the risk of a decrease in the level of supplies, the implementation of a set of measures aimed at both creating new infrastructure and stimulating demand for gas and strengthening positions in sectors where supplies are possible additional volumes gas.

Since 2014, Russia has been under sanctions from the EU, the US and other countries.

PJSC Gazprom pursues a policy of ensuring technological independence and import substitution, which makes it possible to reduce the Company's dependence on economic restrictions in relation to Russia.

Gas transportation through the territory of third countries is associated with the risk of non-fulfillment of transit obligations, which entails the risk of improper fulfillment by the Gazprom Group of obligations under gas supply contracts.

To reduce dependence on transit countries, measures are being taken and are being implemented to diversify export routes, expand opportunities for access to UGS facilities abroad, and develop LNG trade.

The activity of PJSC Gazprom as a natural monopoly is regulated by Federal Law No. 147-FZ dated August 17, 1995 “On Natural Monopolies”. The share of the state in the share capital of PJSC Gazprom is more than 50%.

There is a comprehensive interaction with government bodies on the issues of improving pricing and tariff policy, taxation of companies in the gas industry, objective substantiating materials are being prepared for decision-making by the Board of Directors of PJSC Gazprom.

Since the mid-2000s, there has been an increase in gas production from unconventional sources, primarily from shale deposits in the United States. In the world, interest in the topic of shale gas is manifested mainly in countries with limited reserves and resources of traditional gas, however, the risk of reducing the dependence of these countries on gas imports in the medium term is still assessed as insignificant.

The development of the shale gas industry and other unconventional hydrocarbons in various regions of the world is monitored on a regular basis. Monitoring results, including economic indicators production of gas from unconventional sources and its competitive potential in the existing and prospective sales markets of the Company are regularly reviewed by PJSC Gazprom's management bodies, which makes it possible to effectively build marketing policy in the respective regions.

In some countries, an increase in the production of energy from renewable sources can be expected, which may lead to a decrease in gas consumption in these countries.

The use of gas, including for the purpose of generating electricity, has economic, technological and environmental benefits for consumers, which, according to PJSC Gazprom, will allow natural gas to remain the most common source of energy. In most cases, electricity generation from renewable sources is in addition to the production of energy from other sources and may carry certain risks for the natural gas market if the aggressive policy of subsidizing renewable electricity at the level of countries and (or) supranational entities continues.

There are still risks of changes in currency regulation and tax legislation, as well as an increase in the tax burden on fuel and energy companies. Changes in the currency regulation regime and tax legislation in the Russian Federation, as well as changes in tax legislation in the countries where the Gazprom Group operates, may affect the activities of PJSC Gazprom and Group entities.

Changes in currency and tax legislation are monitored on a systematic basis, and the relevant requirements are clearly met. The Company interacts with government authorities to timely adapt its activities in accordance with changes in legislation in the Russian Federation and abroad.

Appearance additional requirements by the customs authorities in the event of a change in the rules of customs control and payment of export customs duty.

PJSC Gazprom complies with the requirements of customs legislation, tracking changes in regulatory legal acts already at the initial stages of preparation, and makes its proposals while interacting with government authorities.

Significant exchange rate volatility, as well as income and expenses in different currencies affect PJSC Gazprom's results of operations.

In order to minimize losses from exchange rate volatility, hedging of the risks of market changes in exchange rates and interest payments is applied. In addition, the Company complies with the instructions of the Bank of Russia regarding the ratio of assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currency, and the impact of currency risk is also taken into account using an estimate of revenue at risk (EaR).

Untimely or incomplete fulfillment of obligations by certain counterparties in accordance with the terms of the agreement (contract) bears risks for the activities of PJSC Gazprom.

Interaction with credit institutions is carried out within the framework of credit risk limits reviewed on a regular basis, including taking into account credit rating calculated by PJSC Gazprom and subsidiaries and organizations. The fulfillment of contractual obligations is monitored.

A possible decline in oil prices, as well as exchange quotations for gas, carries risks, the implementation of which may lead to a reduction in income. There are also volume risks associated with the fact that buyers have some flexibility in gas withdrawals.

Adaptation of contract conditions is carried out, types of transactions allowed for use are determined, financial instruments and counterparties with whom such transactions may be entered into.

In the event of non-compliance with the requirements of license agreements, PJSC Gazprom is exposed to the risks of early termination or suspension of licenses for the right to use subsoil, on the basis of which geological survey, exploration and production of hydrocarbons are carried out.

Regular monitoring, control of compliance with license requirements, as well as timely amendments to license agreements minimize the likelihood of their withdrawal and suspension.

Sustainability and performance of PJSC Gazprom directly depends on the efficiency of work in the field of health and safety.

The Company has implemented and operates the EMSMS and IS, which is part of the integrated management system of PJSC Gazprom.

The growth in the cost of equipment, technical devices, components, as well as works and services that form the cost of capital construction projects, is a risk in terms of investment activities.

Conducting competitive purchases with the choice of suppliers who offered the most low price contracts for the supply of goods of good quality, helps to reduce the cost of purchasing and supplying raw materials, materials, components, works and services. To control the cost of purchases from sole supplier(contractor, performer) central authority procurement management of the Gazprom Group and the Estimated Commission of PJSC Gazprom analyze the procedure for the formation and reasonableness of the prices of contracts (changes and additions to them) of the Gazprom Group based on the calculations submitted by customers, optimize such prices, set limit prices for contracts ( additional agreements), control the compliance of the prices of concluded contracts (additional agreements) with the established prices.

The main types of production activities for the extraction, transportation, processing and storage of hydrocarbons are associated with risks of a technological, technical and climatic nature, as well as negative actions of personnel and third parties.

The UGSS ensures systemic reliability of gas supplies. The stability of the system is ensured through the introduction of modern and innovative methods diagnostics, timely overhaul and maintenance, reconstruction and modernization. Insurance protection of the property interests of subsidiaries is organized, including property insurance (including offshore facilities), insurance against interruptions in production activities at the gas processing plant and liability insurance during the construction, repair and operation of production facilities.

PJSC Gazprom's strategic and financial goals depend on the level of hydrocarbon reserves and the accuracy of their assessment.

Procedures developed and implemented independent evaluation stocks in accordance with international PRMS standards. The results of reserves estimation in accordance with the Russian classification of reserves are put on the balance sheet only after the annual review and approval by the State Commission for Mineral Reserves.

The main types of production activities for the production, transportation, processing and storage of hydrocarbons are associated with environmental risks (risks of environmental pollution, non-compliance with environmental legislation), the implementation of which may entail legal, financial and reputational consequences.

Profit (billion rubles)

operating room

Profit for shareholders

A unified environmental policy is being implemented, programs and measures are being implemented to reduce the negative impact on the environment, voluntary insurance of liability for causing harm to the environment is being implemented, the best available and innovative technologies aimed at minimizing the negative impact on the environment. An EMS has been implemented and is functioning effectively, integrating the management bodies of the Company and its subsidiaries. In December 2017, PJSC Gazprom’s EMS successfully passed a recertification audit and confirmed its compliance with the requirements of the international ISO standard 14001:2015. The measures taken by PJSC Gazprom allow maintaining the manageability of environmental risks at a high level.