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Introduction

Chapter 1. Cash flow management system

1.2 Cash flow management based on the financial cycle

1.3 Motion analysis Money

1.4 Forecasting cash flows

Conclusions on the first chapter

Chapter 2

2.1 general characteristics JSC "Ust-Izhora Plywood Mill"

2.2 Analysis of key financial indicators

2.2.3 Equity analysis

2.2.4 Evaluation financial stability, liquidity and JSC "Ust-Izhora Plywood Mill"

2.3 Cash flow analysis

Conclusions on the second chapter

Chapter 3

3.1 Steps for forecasting total cash flow

3.2 Forecasting the cash flow of the enterprise for the main activity

3.3 Using the payment calendar to forecast cash flows

Conclusions on the third chapter

Conclusion

Bibliography

INTRODUCTION

On this stage state of the economy, for many enterprises it is very important to become right choice development strategies and tactics. The security of the enterprise with its own funds has become the main, priority task for the managers of the organization.

In a competitive and unstable environment external environment it is necessary to promptly respond to deviations from the normal activities of the enterprise. Cash flow management, namely cash flow forecasting, will help prevent a cash flow crisis. A well-prepared cash flow forecast will help plan the expected cash flow over time, thus allowing you to detect shortfalls in time and take action. Also, cash flow forecasting can help identify sales trends, customer payment delays, and plan the purchase of major assets.

The purpose of the thesis is to develop recommendations for improving the forecasting of cash flows in the course of analyzing the production and economic activities of the enterprise under study.

The object of the study is JSC "Ust-Izhora Plywood Mill". The subject of the study is the process of cash flow in the enterprise.

IN thesis To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

explore theoretical basis cash flow management;

determine the main indicators used in forecasting cash flows;

Based on the analysis of indicators, develop recommendations for improving the process of forecasting cash flows at the enterprise.

The practical significance of the thesis research lies in the development of specific proposals for improving the forecasting of cash flows in the enterprise.

The thesis consists of an introduction, three main parts, a conclusion, a bibliography and applications.

CHAPTER 1. Cash flow management system

1.1 The concept of cash flows and their classification
Of great importance when conducting a comprehensive analysis of the activities of the enterprise is that all financial results should be analyzed taking into account the data on cash flows in the enterprise.
At any point in time, the company has an inflow of funds from investors, creditors, as well as income received as a result of the company's activities, as well as their disposal, distribution for various purposes and needs of the enterprise: the acquisition of fixed assets, the creation of inventories, the formation of receivables and others.
Cash is the most liquid category of assets, which provides the enterprise with the greatest degree of liquidity, and, consequently, the freedom to choose actions.
Cash flow - cash flow in real time. In fact, cash flow is the difference between the amounts of cash receipts and payments of an enterprise for a certain period of time, usually a financial year is taken for this period.
Cash flow - the sum of net income, depreciation and other periodic receipts or payments that increase the amount of the company's cash.
Classification of cash flows:

1. By the scale of service business processes distinguish:

2. By types of economic activity, there are:

on investment;

on financial.

3. According to the direction of cash flow, there are:

positive;

negative.

4. According to the variance of the direction of cash flow, they distinguish

standard (the direction of the movement of funds changes no more than once);

non-standard (change of direction more than once, investment of funds with subsequent reinvestment of income).

5. According to the volume calculation method:

Gross (includes the totality of receipts and expenditures of funds in the period under review);

net (difference between positive and negative cash flow in the period under review).

6. By the nature of the cash flow in relation to the enterprise:

· internal calculations;

External cash flows (all monetary relations that arise between the enterprise and the external environment).

7. According to the level of volume sufficiency:

· redundant;

· in short supply.

8. According to the volume balance level:

Balanced (characterizes this type of total cash flow, which provides a balance between the volume of positive and negative flows, taking into account the inflow of funds);

· Unbalanced (does not provide cash flow).

9. By time period:

short-term (no more than one year);

long-term (more than one year).

10. According to the forms of use of funds:

· cash;

non-cash.

11. By type of currency used

national;

foreign.

12. By the importance of the formation of specific results of economic activity:

Priority (type of cash flow for individual transactions or activities that generates high level formation of a net cash flow);

secondary (does not affect the formation of the final results).

13. By the predictability of occurrence

· fully;

not enough.

14. If possible, regulation in the management process:

amenable (can be changed in volume and time when making management decisions enterprise managers);

· Not amenable.

15. If possible, ensure solvency

liquid;

illiquid.

16. According to the legality of the implementation:

legal;

Illegal.

17. According to the method of evaluation in time:

present (this is a comparable amount of cash, given at a cost to the present time);

future (this is a comparable amount of cash, reduced by value to a specific future).

18. According to the continuity of formation in the period under review:

regular (in the course of economic activity);

Discrete (from a one-time business transaction).

1.2 Cash flow management

Cash flow management is based on the concept of cash circulation, for example: first, money is converted into inventories, receivables, and then back into money, closing the cash flow cycle

To ensure financial independence, the enterprise must have a sufficient number of equity. For this, the company needs to be profitable. To achieve this goal, it is important effective management inflow and outflow of funds, prompt response to deviations from the set course of activity.

Cash flow management is one of the most important activities financial manager and includes:

calculation of the time of circulation of funds (financial cycle);

cash flow analysis;

cash flow forecasting.

The key point in business liquidity management is the cash flow cycle (financial cycle).

The financial cycle is the time during which funds are diverted from circulation.

In other words, the financial cycle includes:

investment of funds in raw materials, materials, semi-finished products and components, and other assets for the production of products;

sale of products, provision of services and performance of work;

receipt of proceeds from the sale of products, the provision of services, the performance of work.

Due to the order in which these activities take place, a company's liquidity is directly affected by timing differences in cash transactions for each activity.

Spending money, selling products and receiving money do not coincide in time, as a result, there is a need either for a larger amount of cash flow, or for the use of other sources of funds (capital and loans) to maintain liquidity.

An important point in cash flow management is the determination of the duration of the financial cycle, concluded in the time interval from the moment of acquisition of production resources to the moment of receipt of funds for goods sold(picture 1).

The figure shows that due to the possible mismatch along the entire technological chain of the physical movement of production resources and funds, it is necessary to monitor the ratio of the components of the operating and financial cycles and the entire cycle business activity enterprises.

Figure 1 - Stages of circulation of funds

At the same time, it should be remembered that the given flow periodization scheme is only a simplified chronological chain, which, in principle, cannot be observed directly, but can only be determined by calculation.

The logic of the presented scheme is as follows. The operating cycle characterizes total time, during which financial resources are mortified in inventories and receivables. Since the company pays bills with a time lag, the time during which funds are diverted from circulation, that is, the financial cycle, is less by the average time of accounts payable circulation. The shortening of the operating and financial cycles in dynamics is seen as a positive trend. If the reduction of the operating cycle can be done by accelerating production process and the turnover of receivables, the financial cycle can be reduced both due to these factors, and due to some slowdown in the turnover of accounts payable.

The duration of the financial cycle (PFC) in days of turnover is calculated by the formula:

PFC \u003d POV - WQA \u003d WHO + WOD - WQA, (1)

WOD \u003d SDZ / VYRRr * T, (2)

WHO=SDR/FOR*T, (3)

where: POC - the duration of the operating cycle;

VOK - the time of circulation of accounts payable;

WHO - the time of circulation of inventories;

SDZ - average accounts receivable;

ZPP - production costs;

VYRR - proceeds from sales;

SDR - average production stocks;

VOD - the time of circulation of receivables;

T is the length of the period for which averages are calculated.

The calculation can be done in two ways:

1. for all data on receivables and payables;

2. according to data on receivables and payables directly related to the production process.

WOK=RMS/ZPP*T, (4)

where: SKZ - average accounts payable

Based on formula (4), in the future, it is possible to evaluate the nature of the credit policy of the enterprise, the equivalence of receivables and payables, specific for specific enterprise duration of the operating cycle and its impact on the value working capital enterprise as a whole, the period of diversion from the economic turnover of funds.

Thus, the central point in calculating the time of circulation of funds is the duration of the financial cycle (PFC).

The financial cycle is the time interval from the moment of acquisition of production resources until the moment of receipt of funds for the goods sold.

The calculation of the PFC allows you to indicate ways to accelerate the turnover of funds by evaluating the impact of the indicators used in determining the PFC.

1.3 Cash flow analysis

One of the main conditions for the normal operation of the enterprise is the availability of funds, which can be assessed by the analysis of cash flows.

The main task of the analysis of cash flows is to identify the causes of the lack (excess) of funds, determining the sources of their receipts and directions of use.

The purpose of the analysis is to highlight, if possible, all transactions affecting cash flow.

In the analysis, cash flows are considered for three types of activities: core, investing and financing. This division allows us to determine what specific gravity income received from each of the activities. Such an analysis helps to assess the prospects of the enterprise. The main activity is the activity of the enterprise, bringing it the main income, as well as other activities not related to investment and finance. Below are the main directions of inflow and outflow of funds (table 1). Since the main activity is the main source of profit, it should be the main source of cash.

Investment activity is associated with the sale and acquisition of long-term property.

Table 1 - The main directions of inflow and outflow of funds for core activities

Information on cash flows associated with investment activities reflects the costs of acquiring resources that will create future cash inflows and profits (see table 2).

Investing activities generally result in temporary cash outflows.

Financing activities are activities that result in changes in the amount and composition of equity and borrowed money enterprises .

An enterprise is considered to be in financial activity if it receives resources from shareholders (issuance of shares and other equity securities), returns resources to shareholders (payment of dividends), borrows money from creditors, and repays amounts received as loans. Information about the receipt and expenditure of funds related to financial activities enterprise allows you to predict the future amount of funds to which the suppliers of capital of the enterprise will be entitled

cash flow income asset

Table 2 - The main directions of inflow and outflow of funds for investment activities

The directions of outflow and inflow of funds from financial activities are presented in Table 3.

Table 3 - Main directions of cash inflow and outflow from financial activities

Financial activity is designed to increase the funds at the disposal of the enterprise for financial support of the main and investment activities.

For each area of activity, you need to sum up the results. It is bad when current activities will be dominated by cash outflows. This suggests that the funds received are not enough to ensure the current payments of the enterprise. In this case, the lack of funds for current settlements will be covered by borrowed resources. If, in addition, there is an outflow of funds from investment activities, then the financial independence of the enterprise decreases.

One of the conditions for the financial well-being of the enterprise is the inflow of funds. However, the excessive amount of cash indicates that the company actually suffers losses associated with the depreciation of money, as well as the lost opportunity for their profitable placement. This suggests that it is necessary to manage the movement of cash flows, and for this, at the first stage, the share of funds in the composition of current liabilities is analyzed, that is, the absolute liquidity ratio is determined by the formula:

K=(DS+KFV)/KO, (5)

Where: K-turnover ratio;

DS - cash;

KFV - short-term financial investments;

KO - short-term liabilities.

This ratio shows how much of the current debt can be repaid at the balance sheet date. If the actual value of the coefficient is less than 0.2-0.3, then this indicates a shortage of funds in the enterprise. Under these conditions, the current solvency will depend entirely on the reliability of debtors.

If during the analysis it turns out that the amount of cash in the composition of current liabilities decreases, and current liabilities increase, then this is a negative trend.

At the second stage, an assessment of the sufficiency of funds is made. To do this, determine the duration of the period of their turnover by the formula:

DRPop=SODS*T/ODSp, (6)

Where: DRPop - the duration of the settlement period of one turnover of funds;

SODS - average cash balances;

ODSp- turnover of funds for the period

Average cash balances are calculated using the chronological average. For the calculation, data on the amount of balances at the beginning and end of the period on cash accounts are taken. To calculate the average turnover, you should use the credit turnover on account 51 for the analyzed period. On account 51, it is necessary to clear the credit turnover from internal turnover.

The main document for the analysis of cash flows is the "Cash Flow Statement".

The direct and indirect methods are used to determine cash flows. The difference between them lies in the different sequence of procedures for determining the amount of cash flow.

The direct method is based on the calculation of the inflow (revenue from the sale of products, works and services, advances received, etc.) and outflow (payment of supplier invoices, return of received short-term loans and borrowings, etc.) of funds, that is, the initial element is revenue. Analysis of funds by a direct method makes it possible to assess the liquidity of an enterprise, since it reveals in detail the movement of funds in its accounts and allows you to draw operational conclusions regarding the sufficiency of funds for payments on current obligations, for investment activities and additional costs.

This method has a serious drawback - it does not disclose the relationship between the obtained financial result and the change in cash in the accounts of the enterprise, therefore, an indirect method of analysis is used to explain the reason for the discrepancy between profit and cash.

The indirect method is based on the analysis of the items in the balance sheet and the income statement, on the accounting of transactions related to the movement of funds, and consistent adjustment net profit, that is, the initial element is profit.

The indirect method allows you to show the relationship between different types of activities of the enterprise, establishes the relationship between net profit and changes in the assets of the enterprise for the reporting period. Its essence is to convert the amount of net profit into the amount of cash. It is based on the fact that there are certain types expenses and incomes that reduce (increase) profit without affecting the amount of cash. During the analysis for the amount said expenses(income) make adjustments to net profit so that the items of expenses that are not associated with the outflow of funds, and the items of income that are not accompanied by their inflow, do not affect the amount of net profit.

Do not cause an outflow of funds business transactions associated with the calculation of depreciation of fixed assets, intangible assets, which reduce the value of the financial result. In this case, the decrease in profit is not accompanied by a reduction in cash (in order to obtain the real amount of cash, the amount of accrued depreciation must be added to net profit). When analyzing the relationship between the obtained financial result and the change in cash, one should take into account the possibility of receiving income that is reflected in the accounting before the actual receipt of funds (for example, when accounting for sold products at the time of their shipment).

For the purposes of analysis, information from the balance sheet, Form No. 2 "Profit and Loss Statement", as well as general ledger data are used. With its help, the cash flow is determined separately within the framework of current, investment and financial activities. The cumulative result, which characterizes the state of funds at the enterprise, is the sum of the results of the movement of funds for each type of activity.

The analysis begins with an assessment of changes in individual items of the enterprise's assets and their sources.

Then adjustments are made to the data of various accounts that affect the amount of profit. This influence can be multidirectional. The adjustment is based on a balance equation that links the opening and closing balances, as well as debit and credit turnover.

An analysis of cash flow makes it possible to draw more informed conclusions about:

In what volume and from what sources the received funds were received, what are the directions of their use.

Is the company's own funds sufficient for investment activities.

Is the company able to pay its current liabilities?

Is the profit received enough to service current activities.

What explains the discrepancy between the amount of profit received and the availability of funds.

All this determines the importance of such an analysis and the expediency of its implementation for the purposes of operational and strategic financial planning of the enterprise.

1.4 Cash flow forecasting

The success of an enterprise depends on its ability to generate cash to support its activities. The most important task of the head (financial manager) is the forecasting of positive cash flows from the main activity and the search for the most profitable sources of financing.

Forecasting in financial management- this is a prediction of a certain event, development for the prospect of changes financial condition the object as a whole and its various parts.

A feature of forecasting is the alternativeness in the construction of financial indicators and parameters, which determines the variance in the development of the financial condition of an enterprise based on emerging trends. Working on the forecast contributes to a deeper study of all aspects of production, which makes it possible to more successfully resolve emerging issues.

Forecasting can be carried out both on the basis of extrapolation of the past into the future, taking into account peer review trends of change, as well as direct prediction of change.

A cash flow forecast is a report that reflects all receipts and expenditures of cash in the process of expected transactions (operations) for a certain period.

Cash flow forecasting allows you to anticipate cash shortages or surpluses before they occur and enables you to certain time change the behavior of the firm.

In the economic literature, one can come across the assertion that the "forecast" of cash flow is more correctly called the "budget". However, according to some economists, such a statement is erroneous.

During the year, unforeseen circumstances may arise that require an immediate change in planned indicators that would correspond to current circumstances. The resulting new figures cannot be called a "budget". It would be more correct to call them "forecasts", which can be as many as required, depending on the circumstances.

Thus, for economists who adhere to this point of view, the cash flow forecast is a report that reflects all receipts and expenditures of funds in the process of expected transactions (operations) for a certain period, and the budget - evaluation results a coordinated management plan or business strategy for the future.

Cash Budget - A forecast of cash flows caused by collections and disbursements.

It is developed on the basis of planning future cash receipts and payments of the enterprise for various periods of time and shows the moment and volume of expected receipts and payments of cash for the reporting period.

The budget represents the program of actions expressed in cost indicators in the field of production, purchases of raw materials or goods, sales of manufactured products, etc. The action program should provide for temporal and functional coordination (coordination) of individual activities.

A cash budget can be drawn up for almost any period. Short-term forecasts are usually made for a month, probably because seasonal fluctuations in cash flows are taken into account in their formation. When cash flows are predictable but highly volatile, it may be necessary to develop a budget over shorter periods in order to determine the maximum cash requirement. For the same reason, with relatively weak cash flows, budgeting for a quarter or even a longer period of time may be justified.

The more distant the period for which the forecast is made, the less accurate the prediction becomes. The cost of preparing a monthly cash budget is usually justified only for forecasts relating to the immediate future. A budget is only as useful as we rely on the accuracy of the forecast to make it.

The cash budget usually consists of four main sections:

the section of receipts, which includes the cash balance at the beginning of the period, cash receipts from customers and other items of cash receipts;

a section on cash outflows that reflects all types of cash outflows for the coming period;

division of excess or deficit of funds - the difference between the receipt and expenditure of funds;

financial section, which details the items of borrowed funds and repayment of debt for the upcoming period.

The budget allows:

get an idea of the total need for cash;

make decisions about rational use resources;

analyze significant deviations by budget items and evaluate their impact on financial indicators enterprises;

determine the need for the volume and timing of borrowing;

observe the change in the amount of cash flow, which should always be at a level sufficient to repay obligations as needed.

As a result, it is possible to control the inflow and outflow of funds by turning Special attention on the correctness of the reflection of the exact time of their appearance and their relationship with the planned production, investment and financial activities.

The procedures of the forecasting technique are performed in the following sequence:

1. Forecasting cash receipts by periods.

2. Forecasting cash outflow by periods.

3. Calculation of net cash flow (surplus/shortage) by sub-periods.

4. Determination of the total need for short-term financing in the context of sub-periods.

The meaning of the first stage is to calculate the amount of possible cash receipts. A certain difficulty in such a calculation may arise if the company applies the methodology for determining revenue as goods are shipped. The main source of cash receipts is the sale of goods, which is divided into the sale of goods for cash and on credit. In practice, most businesses keep track of the average time it takes customers to pay bills. Based on this, it is possible to calculate what part of the proceeds for the sold products will come in the same sub-period, and what part in the next. Further, using the balance method, cash receipts and changes in receivables are calculated in a chain way. The basic balance equation is:

DZn + VR = DZk + DP, (7)

where: DZn - accounts receivable for goods and services at the beginning of the sub-period;

DZK - accounts receivable for goods and services at the end of the sub-period;

ВР - proceeds from sales for the sub-period;

DP - cash receipts in this sub-period.

A more accurate calculation involves the classification of receivables by maturity. Such a classification can be performed by accumulating statistics and analyzing actual data on the repayment of receivables for previous periods. The analysis is recommended to be done monthly. Thus, it is possible to establish the average share of receivables with a maturity of up to 30 days, up to 60 days, up to 90 days, etc., respectively. in the presence of other significant sources of cash receipts (other sales, non-operating transactions). Their predictive assessment is carried out by the method of direct calculation; the amount received is added to the amount of cash receipts from sales for this sub-period.

The second step is to calculate the cash outflow. Its main component is the repayment of accounts payable. The business is considered to pay its bills on time, although it may delay payment to some extent. The process of delaying payment is called accounts payable "stretching"; deferred accounts payable in this case acts as additional source short term financing. In countries with developed market economy There are various payment systems for goods, in particular, the amount of payment is differentiated depending on the period during which the payment is made. Under such a system, deferred accounts payable become quite a costly source of funding, as part of the discount provided by the supplier is lost. Other uses of funds include wage personnel, administrative and other fixed and variable costs, and capital investments, payment of taxes, interest, dividends.

The third stage is a logical continuation of the two previous ones: by comparing the projected cash receipts and payments, the net cash flow is calculated.

At the fourth stage, the total need for short-term financing is calculated. The meaning of the stages is to determine the size of the short-term bank loan for each sub-period, necessary to ensure the projected cash flow. When calculating, it is recommended to take into account the desired minimum of funds in the current account, which is advisable to have as an insurance reserve, as well as for possible unpredictable profitable investments in advance.

The cash flow forecast, which is a statement of profit and loss, compiled on the basis of the cash method, reveals the structure of planned receipts and expenses.

Drawing up a report and forecast of cash flow allows you to:

1. Determine the required amount of funds.

2. Forecast sales volume.

3. Predict the flow of funds.

4. Predict cash payments.

5. Determine the availability of free cash at the end of the reporting period.

6. Prevent having a large surplus of cash unused.

The cash flow forecast, as well as the cash flow statement, is of interest not only to the head of the enterprise, but also to the investor, since they have the opportunity to assess the future liquidity of the enterprise, its performance and ability to provide sufficient cash to pay debts and dividends. Both the head of the enterprise and the potential investor, by examining cash flows, receive information about:

1) the ability to provide cash in the future;

2) the ability to pay obligations;

3) ability to pay dividends;

4) the need for additional funding.

A cash flow forecast, or a plan of cash receipts and payments, is a document that allows you to estimate how much money you need to invest in the development of an enterprise or a specific project, and doing this for the best, worst and most realistic options for the enterprise or project. For the first year, it is recommended to plan payments and cash receipts on a monthly basis, the second year quarterly and then for a year. If a monthly breakdown of the sales forecast, cost estimates, receipts for each type of activity is made, then you can immediately start compiling detailed forecasts by months, for the first year.

Flexibility lies in continuous process cash flow forecasting, when planned indicators are not considered as something that cannot be changed, but are constantly analyzed and compared with actual data and thereby create a basis for monitoring and making the necessary changes.

Desirable balances at the end of the period represent the amount of cash reserve to cover unforeseen expenses. If the size of the reserve exceeds the cash balances of the enterprise, then it becomes necessary to obtain additional loans and the task of forecasting cash flows is to prevent a sudden shortage of cash. If the actual amount of cash balances is greater than the reserve, then it is necessary to make a decision on the redistribution or reinvestment of cash resources for their effective use.

When compiling a cash flow forecast, data and worksheets provided by the enterprise services are used for each month of the first year according to the expected:

1) the volume of sales: in fact and on credit;

2) registers of accounts receivable and receipts from previous sales on credit and the results of changes in credit policy;

3) planned purchases of materials;

4) the level of wages, taking into account indexation;

5) necessary purchases of equipment;

6) registers of creditors' accounts and payments to the budget;

7) additional financing and its compensation. What source will the funds come from? How and when they should be paid;

8) other possible receipts and payments of funds.

The most important thing is that the forecast should be a working document that allows you to make changes, justified by trends in the previous activities of the enterprise and the influence of the external environment.

One of the most difficult problems is solved in forecasting and evaluating cash receipts and payments from sales for cash (or by transfer) and sales on credit. Both of these forecasts depend on the sales volume forecast. The forecast itself, in turn, depends on the environment and planned activities of the company. The period for which forecasts are made depends on the stability of the company's activities, the needs of the management staff and the degree of confidence of the management staff in their forecasts.

An important document in forecasting is the Cash Budget Worksheet. This document is prepared prior to the cash flow forecast. This document analyzes cash and credit sales estimates, payment procedures, and payments for inventory purchases. The first two months reflect actual, not projected, results. The cash flow forecast is calculated from the estimated percentage of cash sales. The estimated cost of acquiring inventory and subsequent payments to suppliers should reflect the purchasing and inventory control policies of the enterprise. Cash flow forecasting is a technique used by businesses to transform their operating plans into financial requirements. The usual planning horizon is the company's budget year, broken down by month.

The cash flow forecast itself consists of two sections.

The first section includes the net cash flow calculated from the worksheet and miscellaneous items of cash disbursements. The net cash flow figure provides information about the level of cash that is needed to support the planned activity. The second (financial) section of the cash flow forecast shows the impact of core activities on the company's plans. The manager's attention should be focused on three key variables:

1. Net cash flow.

2. Required funding.

3. Free cash balances.

Thus, forecasting the cash flows of an enterprise helps to determine the formation of additional investment resources for the implementation of financial investments that are a source of profit.

Conclusions on the first chapter

1. Cash flow - the amount of net income, depreciation and other periodic receipts or payments that increase the amount of the company's cash.

2. Cash flow can be classified, for example:

A. According to the scale of servicing business processes, there are:

the cash flow of the enterprise as a whole;

cash flow for individual structural divisions;

cash flow for individual business transactions.

B. By type of economic activity, there are:

operating activities;

on investment;

on financial.

B. According to the direction of cash flow, there are:

positive;

negative.

3. Cash flow management is one of the most important activities of a financial manager and includes: calculation of the time of circulation of funds (financial cycle); cash flow analysis; cash flow forecasting.

4. The key point in business liquidity management is the cash flow cycle (financial cycle).

The operating cycle characterizes the total time during which financial resources are dead in stocks and receivables. Since the company pays bills with a time lag, the time during which funds are diverted from circulation, that is, the financial cycle, is less by the average time of accounts payable circulation. The shortening of the operating and financial cycles in dynamics is seen as a positive trend. If the reduction in the operating cycle can be done by accelerating the production process and the turnover of receivables, then the financial cycle can be reduced both due to these factors, and due to some slowdown in the turnover of accounts payable.

5. The main task of the analysis of cash flows is to identify the causes of the lack (excess) of funds, determining the sources of their receipts and directions of use.

6. Direct and indirect methods are used to determine cash flows. The difference between them lies in the different sequence of procedures for determining the amount of cash flow.

7. Forecasting in financial management is the prediction of a certain event, the development for the future of changes in the financial condition of the object as a whole and its various parts. A feature of forecasting is the alternativeness in the construction of financial indicators and parameters, which determines the variance in the development of the financial condition of an enterprise based on emerging trends. Working on the forecast contributes to a deeper study of all aspects of production, which makes it possible to more successfully resolve emerging issues.

8. Forecasting the flow of funds allows you to anticipate the deficit or surplus of funds even before they occur and makes it possible for a certain time to correct the behavior of the company.

9. The procedures of the forecasting methodology are performed in the following sequence: Forecasting cash receipts by periods. Forecasting cash outflow by periods. Calculation of net cash flow (surplus/shortage) by sub-periods. Determination of the total need for short-term financing in the context of sub-periods.

CHAPTER 2

2.1 General characteristics of the enterprise OJSC "Ust-Izhora Plywood Plant"

The company was founded in December 1910.

A woodworking (plywood) plant near the village of Ust-Izhora, St. Petersburg district, was opened on the basis of a certificate issued in the name of process engineer Khorvat Vladimir Leonidovich, who was the owner.

The annual production of plywood at that time was about 80 m3.

The production consisted in the production of raw hot plywood and some wood products.

The plant consisted of a wooden one-story production building and a stone boiler building.

The number of employees, both in the day and night shifts, was 40 people, and the number of equipment was 28 units.

The power of the plant is one turbodynamo of 90 hp (65 kW) and 4 electric motors.

The site area of the factory territory was about 43,000 sq.m.

In 1914, a one-story stone building was built, which still exists today, the plot of land allocated for the plant increased to 52,000 sq.m.

In 1917 the plant was nationalized by the State.

In 1926, a narrow-gauge railway line was laid to the plant.

In 1929, its own power substation was liquidated in connection with the transition to electricity from Volkhovstroy, the first-born Lenin plan GOELRO.

During the Great Patriotic War, under shelling, the dilapidated plant continued to operate, and since 1944 its restoration began.

In 1948, the enterprise reached the pre-war output, and in 1949, export deliveries of plywood were made for the first time.

Since 1951, the plant has become known as the Ust-Izhora Plywood Plant.

In the 60-70s, new workshops were built and put into operation; for the first time in the plywood industry, a complex treatment facilities acting on the system biological treatment, advanced technologies have been developed and introduced into production, manual labor has been mechanized, the production of new types of products has been mastered: wood laminated plastics, bakelized plywood, a wide range of consumer goods.

During the years of perestroika, the plant experienced difficulties, fell into decay, but continued to work.

In 1997 The Ust-Izhora Plywood Mill became part of the Sveza holding. From that moment, the revival of the plant began.

Currently, the plant specializes in the production of the following products:

Birch plywood FK and FSF, main standard sizes; 1525x1525, 1220x2440 and 1525x3050 mm

Laminated plywood, basic dimensions: 1220x2440 and 1525x3050 mm

Area: territories - 325,457 sq.m. (32.5 ha); buildings - 76 234 sq.m.

Useful area of premises - 86 408 sq.m.

The dynamics of production volumes of UIFK OJSC for the last years is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2 - Dynamics of production volumes of OAO UIFK

As can be seen from the presented figure, the overall dynamics of production is directed towards increasing its volumes.

Sales markets for products are shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3 - Sales markets for products

As can be seen from the presented figure, the main direction of sales of the company's products is export. The main performance indicators of the enterprise are presented in Figure 4.

Table of key performance indicators of the enterprise

Main factors
production
Sales proceeds without VAT
Profitability of sales


income taxes
Net profit

The organizational structure of the enterprise is presented in Appendix A. All data presented were taken from annual financial and intra-company reports.

2.2 Analysis of key financial indicators

2.2.1 Analysis of assets and liabilities

Assessment of the placement and structure of the property of the enterprise is of paramount importance in conducting financial analysis, assessing its financial condition.

As shown by the calculations of the active part of the balance sheet (Appendix D), over the last reporting period, the company's assets decreased by 130,202 thousand rubles, or by 6.26%, this was mainly due to a decrease in the volume of current assets by 168,719 thousand rubles. (30.64%), while there was an increase outside working capital for 38517 thousand rubles. (2.52%). Data on changes in the composition of property showed an increase in the decrease in current assets by 30.64%, thus, the share of the most liquid assets in the overall structure of the organization's property decreased to 19.59%. Accordingly, there was an increase in the share of non-current assets in the overall structure of the enterprise's property, which indicates the diversion of funds from the main production activities. The increase in non-current assets in the analyzed year was primarily associated with an increase in the balance sheet item for construction in progress (by 14,453 thousand rubles). In turn, the decrease in the volume of current assets was mainly due to a decrease in the balance sheet item for goods shipped by 43.64% and the amount of receivables by 44.87% compared to the previous period.

The decrease in the indicator of receivables at the enterprise was due to the fact that in the reporting period, the organization decided to refuse to sell goods with a deferred payment.

In general, we can conclude that a slight increase in non-current assets and a decrease in current assets led to changes in the overall structure of the organization's property (Figures 5.6). The cost of non-current assets for the reporting period in comparison with the previous one began to occupy 80.41% in the total structure of the enterprise's assets, while in 2008 this figure was almost 7% lower in the total structure of the enterprise's assets.

Figure 5 - Structure of assets at the beginning of 2009

Figure 6 - Structure of assets at the end of 2009

In the structure of balance sheet assets, non-current assets began to significantly prevail over current assets compared to the previous period. An analysis of the passive part of the balance sheet (Appendix D) shows that the outflow of funds in the reporting period in the amount of 130,202 thousand rubles was associated with the rejection of short-term loans and borrowings and bringing this indicator to 0, a decrease in long-term loans by 310,768 thousand rubles (47.92%). At the same time, there was an increase in equity capital by 245,525 thousand rubles, this was mainly due to an increase in retained earnings by 248,058 thousand rubles. Thus, we can note the changes that have occurred in the structure of the liabilities of the organization's balance sheet (Figure 7).

Figure- 7 Structure of liabilities at the end of 2009

The predominance of long-term sources over short-term sources in the structure of borrowed funds is a positive fact that characterizes the improvement in the balance sheet structure and the reduction of the risk of loss of financial stability. The calculations were made on the basis of the balance sheet data (Appendices B, C).

2.2.2 Assessment of business activity of OAO "Ust-Izhora Plywood Mill"

The financial position of the organization, its liquidity and solvency directly depend on how quickly the funds invested in assets turn into real money. The current expenditure of funds and their receipts, as a rule, do not coincide in time - as a result, the enterprise needs more or less funding in order to maintain solvency. The lower the rate of turnover of current assets, the greater the need for financing. The following formulas are traditionally used to calculate turnover ratios:

To Asset Turnover = Revenue/Average Assets (8)

Co-turnover of current assets \u003d Revenue / Average value of current assets (9)

The average value of current assets \u003d (He + Ok) / 2,

where He, Ok - respectively, the value of assets at the beginning and at the end of the period.

Another characteristic of asset turnover is the value representing the duration of one turnover in days (To):

To=YES/V, (10)

where D is the duration of the analyzed period; A - the average value of assets; B - proceeds from the sale of products.

Calculation of assets turnover of JSC "Ust-Izhora Plywood Mill" is given in table 4.

Table 4 - Analysis of the turnover of assets of OJSC "Ust-Izhora Plywood Mill"

indicators	last year	reporting year	change
Revenue, thousand rubles
Assets at the beginning of the year, thousand rubles
Assets at the end of the year, thousand rubles
Average value of assets, thousand rubles
current assets at the beginning of the period, thousand rubles
The average value of current assets, thousand rubles.
To asset turnover, number of times (p.1:p.4)
To the turnover of current assets, the number of times (p. 1: p. 7)
Asset turnover period, days 365: (line 1/line 4)
Period of turnover of current assets, days 365: (line 1 / line 7)

As follows from the data in Table 4, in the analyzed reporting year there was a slowdown in asset turnover. Thus, the asset turnover ratio fell from 1.08r. up to 0.99 rub. and, accordingly, the asset turnover period increased from 339 to 370 days. Also significant was the decline in the turnover of current assets. The turnover ratio of current assets decreased from 5 to 4.26 times, and the duration of the turnover period of working capital increased from 78 to 86 days. It can be assumed that the reason for the decrease in asset turnover was the slowdown in the turnover rate of current assets. The slowdown in the turnover of current assets leads to an increase in their balances. Under these conditions, the organization may need additional funding. To assess the turnover of goods and receivables, formulas (8) and (9) are used, when calculating the turnover of inventories and finished products apply formulas close to them, based on the value of the cost of goods sold (instead of revenue):

Planning (forecasting) the organization's cash flows

Cash flow planning covers three main types:

Strategic planning, during which the cash flow forecast is drawn up in the form of cash receipts and expenditures by year of the planned period and by type of activity;

Tactical planning, during which a plan for the receipt and expenditure of funds is developed;

Operational planning, during which a payment calendar is developed.

A cash flow forecast is a financial document that has become widespread in recent years. It reflects the movement of cash flows from current, investment and financial activities. The differentiation of activities in the development of the forecast allows you to increase the effectiveness of cash flow management, helps the financial manager in assessing the use of funds and in determining their sources. In addition to examining reporting information, forecast data allows you to estimate future flows, and therefore, the growth prospects of the organization and its future financial needs.

Investment financing is included in the forecast after a thorough feasibility study and analysis of operational and financial investments. When planning long-term investments and sources of their financing, future cash flows are considered from the perspective of the time value of money, based on discounting methods to obtain commensurate results.

With the help of a cash flow forecast, you can estimate how much money you need to invest in economic activity organizations, the synchronism of the receipt and expenditure of funds, and therefore, to check the future liquidity of the organization.

After compiling this forecast, the organization's financing strategy is determined, the essence of which is as follows:

identifying sources of long-term financing;

formation of the structure and costs of capital;

choosing ways to increase long-term capital;

tactical financial planning is considered as an integral part of the strategic plan and is a specification of its indicators. the main task of this plan - to check the reality of the sources of funds (inflows) and the rationale for expenses (outflows), the synchronism of their occurrence, to determine the possible need for borrowed funds. This is a document that allows you to realistically assess how much money and in what period the organization will need.

The medium-term plan is developed for a year, broken down by quarters and divisions. tactical plan conforms to the form strategic plan and serves as its development and detailing.

It should be noted that if, as a result of the development of a medium-term plan, there is a shortage of funds, the following measures should be taken: find additional sources of financing (additional issue of shares and bonds, attraction of long-term loans, targeted financing); reduce the costs of the organization, in particular, to sell financial instruments investing and refuse financial investments; accelerate the sale of unused fixed assets (lease them); reduce real investment.

If as a result of the development of the plan there is an excess cash flow, it is advisable to: accelerate the start of the implementation of real investment projects; more actively form a portfolio of financial investments; early repayment of long-term bank loans; expand the operations of the organization.

The particular importance of synchronization of cash flows involves the development of not only an annual plan, but also a short-term plan for short periods of time (month, decade), which is called the payment calendar.

A payment calendar is a plan (budget) for organizing production and financial activities, in which all sources of cash receipts and expenses for a certain period of time are calendar-related. It fully covers the cash flow of the organization; makes it possible to link receipts of funds and payments in cash and non-cash form; allows to ensure constant solvency and liquidity.

The payment calendar is compiled financial service; the planned indicators of the cash flow budget are concentrated and broken down by months and smaller periods (15 days, a decade). The terms are determined based on the frequency of the organization's main payments. In order for the payment calendar to be real, it is necessary to monitor the progress of production and sales, the state of stocks and receivables.

In the process of compiling a payment calendar, the following tasks are solved:

organization of accounting for the temporary docking of cash receipts and future expenses of the organization;

formation of an information base on the movement of cash inflows and outflows;

daily accounting of changes in the information base;

analysis of non-payments and organization of control measures to eliminate their causes;

calculation of the need for short-term financing in the event of a temporary discrepancy between cash receipts and liabilities and the prompt acquisition of borrowed funds;

calculation (in terms of amounts and terms) of temporarily free funds of the organization;

analysis financial market from the position of the most reliable and profitable placement of temporarily free cash.

The payment calendar is compiled on the basis of a real information base on the organization's cash flows. The constituent elements of the information base of cash flows are documentary sources of information, the amount and timing of payments and receipts of funds. Documentary sources are: contracts with counterparties, banks; acts of reconciliation of settlements; acts of delivery and acceptance of products (works, services); invoices for payment; customs declarations; money orders; price agreement documents; payroll schedules; status of settlements with debtors and creditors; statutory deadlines for payments on financial obligations.

Each type of payments and receipts of funds has a specific information feature (term and amount) and documentary sources that reflect these features. It is advisable to receive information on a daily basis: on the balance of funds in each bank account, on funds spent and average balances per day, on the state of market valuable papers this organization. It is also necessary to have information about the planned receipts and payments for the coming period. All of this information is essential if an organization wants to effectively manage cash flows.

Since compiling a payment calendar is a rather laborious procedure, the organization should carry out the necessary preparatory measures in advance.

You should start with the development of a register of payments. This involves defining a register of planned payments; the name of the budget item within which the payment will be made; source of payment (from which current account it is planned to pay money according to the application); authorizations (additional features reflecting the state of the request: whether it was approved or not); the fact of execution of the application (a note on whether the application was paid or not, as well as the date of payment).

Then it is necessary to establish the rules for collecting and passing applications. It will not be possible to compile any reliable calendar for the next week if the organization does not have a payment schedule. It defines the rules for filling out applications, the procedure for approval, as well as the deadlines. in which the application can be submitted, and the time when it will be executed. The regulations for making payments are approved by order of the head of the organization and brought to the attention of all employees.

The next stage in the preparation of the calendar is the planning of receipts by the payment organization. The most difficult thing here is to plan on the calendar the amount of incoming funds per day. Most often they work as follows. The receipts planned in the cash flow budget are divided by the number of working days in a month and the resulting figure is entered into the calendar as the incoming cash flow of one day.

Then you should decide on priorities if there is no money to pay all the bills. Today, it is quite typical for many organizations that the available funds are not enough to pay for all agreed applications. Therefore, in each application, the priority of payment and the payment term under the contract must be indicated. With these data, financial director will be able to independently decide on the transfer of certain payments to a later date

And lastly, it is necessary to follow the implementation of the adopted calendar.

After the calendar is compiled, it remains to update it. As a rule, this is done at the end of the day on the basis of an extract. Instead of planned data, the calendar contains information about actual payments made, receipts and, most importantly, balances.

Chapter Conclusion

The main and main goal of the financial manager is to increase the level of wealth of the owners of the organization. As a rule, the wealth of owners can be assessed by the profit that the organization's activities bring. However, it is important to remember that profit is expected to be received. financial results organization's activities. Real receipts and payments, as a rule, do not coincide in time (and sometimes in magnitude) with income and expenditure. Therefore, the net cash flow and profit will not match. But it is the net cash flow that shows how much money the owner of the organization will actually have

Cash flow forecasting

Results in any area of business depend on the availability and effectiveness of the use of financial resources, which are equated to the "circulatory system" that ensures the life of the enterprise. Therefore, taking care of finances is the starting point and the end result of the activity of any business entity. In a market economy, these issues are of paramount importance.

Forecasting in financial management is the prediction of a certain event, the development for the future of changes in the financial condition of the object as a whole and its various parts.

Forecasting can be carried out both on the basis of extrapolation of the past into the future, taking into account the expert assessment of the trend of change, and direct prediction of changes.

A cash flow forecast is a report that reflects all receipts and expenditures of cash in the process of expected transactions (operations) for a certain period.

Cash flow forecasting allows you to anticipate a shortage or surplus of funds even before they occur and makes it possible for a certain time to correct the behavior of the company.

During the year, unforeseen circumstances may arise that require an immediate change in planned indicators that would correspond to current circumstances. The resulting new figures are "forecasts" of which there may be as many as required, depending on the circumstances.

Thus, the cash flow forecast is a report that reflects all receipts and expenditures of funds in the process of expected transactions (operations) for a certain period, and the budget - estimated results of a coordinated management plan or business strategy for the future.

According to a number of other economists, since most indicators are difficult to predict with great accuracy, often cash flow forecasting comes down to building cash budgets.

Cash budget - A forecast of cash flows caused by collections and disbursements.

The cash budget usually consists of four main sections:

the section of receipts, which includes the cash balance at the beginning of the period, cash receipts from customers and other items of cash receipts;

a section on cash outflows that reflects all types of cash outflows for the coming period;

division of excess or deficit of funds - the difference between the receipt and expenditure of funds;

financial section, which details the items of borrowed funds and repayment of debt for the upcoming period.

The budget allows:

get an idea of the total need for cash;

make decisions on the rational use of resources;

analyze significant deviations in budget items and evaluate their impact on the financial performance of the enterprise;

determine the need for the volume and timing of borrowing;

observe the change in the amount of cash flow, which should always be at a level sufficient to repay obligations as needed.

As a result, it is possible to control the inflow and outflow of funds, paying special attention to the correct reflection of the exact time of their appearance and their relationship with the planned production, investment and financial activities.

The main objectives of cash flow forecasting are:

anticipate the organization's future demand for cash;

assess the financial implications of this demand;

identify possible courses of action and choose the best one to meet the demand.

You can start forecasting after the analysis is completed different scenarios and estimates of cash flows. Cash flow forecasting covers two main subjects:

investment of free (excess) cash;

obtaining short-term loans to cover the shortage of funds.

Given the variety of money market instruments in which excess cash can be invested, and the many sources of short-term loans, the manager has to solve the problem of choosing instruments that provide the highest return with minimal risk (for investing) and the lowest interest (for borrowing).

In the context of the transition to market relations, control over the movement of funds becomes crucial, since the survival of the enterprise depends on it, therefore, it is necessary to forecast cash flow, draw up and develop cash budgets. All this will allow you to monitor the amount of cash flow, identify shortages or surpluses of funds before they occur, and make it possible to correct the actions taken.

Conclusion

Cash flows are one of the central elements of the life of any enterprise. Their management is an integral part of the management of all financial resources of the enterprise to ensure the goal of the enterprise - making a profit.

Summing up, we can say that the success of an enterprise depends on its ability to generate cash to support its activities. The most important task of the manager (financial manager) is planning positive cash flows from core activities and finding the most profitable sources of financing.

In market conditions, cash management becomes the most urgent problem of managing the entire enterprise, because it is here that the main ways to obtain positive financial results are concentrated.

Financial forecasting using the budgeting method

It is necessary to make a forecast of the financial statements of the enterprise OJSC "Leader" using the budgeting method. Assess the change in the attractiveness of the enterprise for shareholders and investors in the planning period.

Initial data for forecasting:

Table 1. Opening balance sheet of JSC "Leader", mln. rub.

Index			At the end of the year
ASSETS
	Fixed assets and other non-current assets - total, including:
		Equipment and machinery (according to book value)
		Depreciation
	Current assets - total, including:
		Stocks of finished goods
		Stocks of raw materials and materials
		Accounts receivable
		Cash
		Balance
LIABILITY
	Sources of own funds - total, including:
		Authorized (share) capital
		Retained earnings
	Long-term loans
	Short-term liabilities - total including:
		Tax payables
		Other accounts payable
		Balance

Table 2. Financial and economic situation of the enterprise

JSC "Leader" in the reporting year, million rubles

Index		Reporting period

Results in any area of business depend on the availability and efficiency of the use of financial resources, which are equated to the "circulatory system" that ensures the life of the enterprise. Therefore, taking care of finances is the starting point and the end result of the activity of any business entity. In a market economy, these issues are of paramount importance.

Forecasting is the prediction of a certain event, the development for the future of changes in the financial condition of the object as a whole and its various parts. A feature of forecasting is the alternativeness in the construction of financial indicators and parameters, which determines the variance in the development of the financial condition of an enterprise based on emerging trends. Working on the forecast contributes to a deeper study of all aspects of production, which makes it possible to more successfully resolve emerging issues. Forecasting can be carried out on the basis of extrapolation of the past into the future, taking into account the expert assessment of trends, and direct prediction of changes.

A cash flow forecast is a report that reflects all receipts and expenditures of cash in the process of expected transactions (operations) for a certain period.

Cash flow forecasting allows you to anticipate a shortage or surplus of funds even before they occur and makes it possible for a certain time to correct the behavior of the company. During the year, unforeseen circumstances may arise that require an immediate change in planned indicators that would correspond to current circumstances. The resulting new figures are "forecasts" of which there may be as many as required, depending on the circumstances.

Thus, the cash flow forecast is a report that reflects all cash receipts and expenditures in the process of expected transactions (operations) for a certain period, and the budget is the estimated results of a coordinated management plan or business strategy for the future period. According to a number of other economists, since most indicators are difficult to predict with great accuracy, often cash flow forecasting comes down to building cash budgets.

Cash budget - A forecast of cash flows caused by collections and disbursements. It is developed on the basis of planning future cash receipts and payments of the enterprise for various periods of time and shows the moment and volume of expected receipts and payments of cash for the reporting period. The budget represents the program of actions expressed in cost indicators in the field of production, purchases of raw materials or goods, sales of manufactured products, etc. The action program should provide for temporal and functional coordination (coordination) of individual activities. A cash budget can be drawn up for almost any period. Short-term forecasts are usually made for a month, probably because seasonal fluctuations in cash flows are taken into account in their formation. When cash flows are predictable but highly volatile, it may be necessary to develop a budget over shorter periods in order to determine the maximum cash requirement. For the same reason, with relatively weak cash flows, budgeting for a quarter or even a longer period of time may be justified.

The cash budget usually consists of four main sections:

- section of receipts, which includes the cash balance at the beginning of the period, cash receipts from customers and other items of cash receipts;
- section of cash outflows, reflecting all types of cash outflows for the forthcoming period;
- division of excess or deficit of funds - the difference between the receipt and expenditure of funds;
- financial section, which details the items of borrowed funds and debt repayment for the upcoming period.

The cash budget allows you to:

- get an idea of the total need for cash;
- make decisions on the rational use of resources;
- analyze significant deviations in budget items and evaluate their impact on the financial performance of the enterprise;
- determine the need for volumes and terms of borrowing;
- observe the change in the amount of cash flow, which should always be at a level sufficient to repay obligations as needed.

1) Forecasting cash receipts by sub-periods;
2) Forecasting cash outflow by sub-periods;
3) Calculation of net cash flow by sub-periods;
4) Determination of the total need for short-term financing in the context of sub-periods.

The meaning of the first stage is to calculate the amount of possible cash receipts. A certain difficulty in such a calculation may arise if the company applies the methodology for determining revenue as goods are shipped. The main source of cash receipts is the sale of goods, which is divided into the sale of goods for cash and on credit. In practice, most enterprises keep track of the average "time period that it takes for customers to pay bills. Based on this, it is possible to calculate which part of the proceeds for sales of products will come in the same sub-period, and which in the next. Further, using the balance method, cash receipts and changes in receivables are calculated in a chain way.

The basic balance equation is:

D3 N + VR = DZ K + DP, (6)

where: D3 N - accounts receivable for goods and services at the beginning of the sub-period;

D3 K - accounts receivable for goods and services at the end of the sub-period;

ВР - proceeds from sales for the sub-period;

DP - cash receipts in this sub-period.

A more accurate calculation involves the classification of receivables by maturity. Such a classification can be performed by accumulating statistics and analyzing actual data on the repayment of receivables for previous periods. The analysis is recommended to be done monthly. Thus, it is possible to establish the average share of receivables with a maturity of up to 30 days, up to 60 days, up to 90 days, etc. If there are other significant sources of cash receipts (other sales, non-operating transactions), their predictive assessment is performed using the direct account method; the amount received is added to the amount of cash receipts from sales for this sub-period.

The second step is to calculate the cash outflow. Its main component is the repayment of accounts payable. The business is considered to pay its bills on time, although it may delay payment to some extent. The process of late payment is called accounts payable “stretching”; deferred accounts payable in this case acts as an additional source of short-term financing. In countries with developed market economies, there are different systems of payment for goods, in particular, the amount of payment is differentiated depending on the period during which the payment is made. Under such a system, deferred accounts payable become quite a costly source of funding, as part of the discount provided by the supplier is lost. Other areas of use of funds include staff salaries, administrative and other fixed and variable expenses, as well as capital investments, payment of taxes, interest, dividends.

The third stage is a logical continuation of the two previous ones by comparing the projected cash receipts and payments, the net cash flow is calculated

At the fourth stage, the total need for short-term financing is calculated. The meaning of the stage is to determine the amount of a short-term bank loan for each sub-period, necessary to ensure the projected cash flow. When calculating, it is recommended to take into account the desired minimum of funds in the current account, which is advisable to have as an insurance reserve, as well as for possible unpredictable profitable investments in advance.

The main objectives of cash flow forecasting are:

- anticipation of the organization's future demand for cash;
- an assessment of the financial implications of this demand;
- definition possible ways actions and choosing the best to meet demand.

Forecasting can begin after the analysis of various scenarios and the assessment of cash flows are completed. Cash flow forecasting covers two main subjects:

- investment of free (excess) funds;
- obtaining short-term loans to cover the shortage of funds.

Thus, in the conditions of transition to market relations, control over the movement of funds becomes crucial, since the survival of the enterprise depends on it, therefore, it is necessary to forecast cash flow, draw up and develop cash budgets. All this will allow you to monitor the amount of cash flow, identify shortages or surpluses of funds before they occur, and make it possible to correct the actions taken. It is desirable to distinguish between the management of funds that bring direct income in the form of interest, dividends and other forms of income (deposit deposits, short-term financial investments) and those that do not bring direct income (other types of monetary assets). An integral element of cash flow management is appropriate planning. Therefore, we will analyze and evaluate the cash flow management process using the example of the Kondi LLC enterprise, in order to identify reserves and develop recommendations for improving the efficiency of cash flow management.

Calculation of forecast cash inflow. Cash flow

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INTRODUCTION

1.2 Cash flow management

Cash flow management is based on the concept of cash circulation, for example: first, money is converted into inventories, receivables, and then back into money, closing the cash flow cycle

1.3 Cash flow analysis

1.4 Cash flow forecasting

2.2 Analysis of key financial indicators

2.2.1 Analysis of assets and liabilities

Assessment of the placement and structure of the property of the enterprise is of paramount importance in conducting financial analysis, assessing its financial condition.

The decrease in the indicator of receivables at the enterprise was due to the fact that in the reporting period, the organization decided to refuse to sell goods with a deferred payment.

Figure 5 - Structure of assets at the beginning of 2009

Figure 6 - Structure of assets at the end of 2009

Figure- 7 Structure of liabilities at the end of 2009

2.2.2 Assessment of business activity of OAO "Ust-Izhora Plywood Mill"

To Asset Turnover = Revenue/Average Assets (8)

Co-turnover of current assets \u003d Revenue / Average value of current assets (9)

The average value of current assets \u003d (He + Ok) / 2,

where He, Ok - respectively, the value of assets at the beginning and at the end of the period.

Another characteristic of asset turnover is the value representing the duration of one turnover in days (To):

To=YES/V, (10)

where D is the duration of the analyzed period; A - the average value of assets; B - proceeds from the sale of products.

Calculation of assets turnover of JSC "Ust-Izhora Plywood Mill" is given in table 4.

Table 4 - Analysis of the turnover of assets of OJSC "Ust-Izhora Plywood Mill"

Similar Documents

Planning (forecasting) the organization's cash flows

Cash flow forecasting

Conclusion

It is necessary to make a forecast of the financial statements of the enterprise OJSC "Leader" using the budgeting method. Assess the change in the attractiveness of the enterprise for shareholders and investors in the planning period.

Index

At the end of the year

Fixed assets and other non-current assets - total,

Stocks of raw materials and materials