Types and conditions of entrepreneurial risk. The concept and types of entrepreneurial risk

The following types of entrepreneurial risk are known.

Production risk is associated with the production of products, goods, services, the implementation of any type of production activity. Among the reasons for the emergence of such a risk are a decrease in the size of production, an increase in material and other costs, the payment of increased interest, deductions, taxes, etc.

Commercial (commodity) risk arises in the process of selling goods and services produced or purchased by the entrepreneur. Its reasons are a decrease in the volume of sales due, for example, to changes in the market situation, an increase in the purchase price, an unforeseen decrease in the volume of purchases, losses of goods in the circulation process, an increase in distribution costs.,

Financial risk arises in the sphere of relations of the enterprise with banks and other financial institutions. It is usually measured by the ratio borrowed money to own: the higher this ratio, the more the company depends on creditors, the higher the financial risk, since the restriction or termination of lending, the tightening of credit conditions entail a halt in production due to lack of raw materials, etc.

Financial risks are divided into two types: those associated with the purchasing power of money and capital investment (investment risks).

The risks associated with the purchasing power of money include inflation and currency risks.

The group of investment risks is very extensive and includes the following risks: systemic, selective, liquidity, credit, regional, sectoral, enterprise, innovative.

Systemic risk is the risk of deterioration of the conjuncture (fall) of any market as a whole. It is not associated with a specific investment object and represents a general risk for all investments in this market (stock, currency, real estate, etc.).

Liquidity risk is associated with the possibility of losses in the sale of an investment object due to a change in the assessment of its quality, for example, any product, real estate (land, buildings), securities, etc.

Credit risk is the risk that a borrower (debtor) will be unable to meet its obligations. Examples include deferring loan repayments or freezing bond payments.

Regional risk is associated with the economic situation of certain regions.

Industry risk is associated with the specifics of individual sectors of the economy, which is determined by two main factors: exposure to cyclical fluctuations and the stage of the industry's life cycle.

Enterprise risk is associated with a specific enterprise as an investment object. In addition, enterprise risk includes the risk of fraud. For example, it is possible to create false companies in order to fraudulently attract funds from investors or joint-stock companies for speculative trading on the quote. valuable papers.

Innovation risk is the risk of loss associated with the fact that an innovation new product or a service new technology, the development of which can be spent very significant funds, will not be implemented or will not pay off.

Risk factors

Macro environment factors:

Political factor - it means the political image of the country, the likelihood of changes in political attitudes, the likelihood of changes in legislation, the degree of dependence of entrepreneurship on government intervention, the likelihood of the execution of political declarations, the degree of influence of political factors on the state of the economy;

Technological risks - risks associated with the emergence of new fundamental developments, new production technologies, new requirements for the safety of technologies, technological risks can also be classified as market risks, in which case it will include the cost of production technology in this industry, the introduction of new equipment in our industry , tightening economic regulations;

Macroeconomic factor - it combines such factors as inflation, changes in the exchange rate, the dynamics of real incomes of the country's population, the level of discount rates;

Environmental factor - new environmental standards.

Market factors:

technological factor;

The financial factor is the cost of credit resources, their availability, degree of financial discipline our counterparties;

Investment factor - the need for investment, the amount of diversity in the quality of religious projects, the degree of discipline of contractors;

Environmental factor;

Demand factor – existing demand, potential demand;

Competition factor - the number and market shares of each of the competitors, the image of competitors, the image of the company's products, types of competition policy;

social factor.

It is expedient to analyze labor markets, raw materials.

Factors internal environment:

Social risks - risks associated with satisfaction with wages, relationships at the enterprise;

image risks;

Technological risks - the degree of wear, the quality of equipment, the rationality of technology, the amount of marriage;

Financial factors- efficiency financial investments, distribution system efficiency financial resources;

criminal factors.

Due to the fact that entrepreneurial risk has a subjective basis, expressed in the decision-making by the entrepreneur himself, and an objective basis (influence of the external environment), successes and failures entrepreneurial activity it is advisable to consider taking into account external and internal factors.

External factors are those conditions that an entrepreneur cannot change, but must take into account when carrying out his activities, since they affect the state of his affairs. External factors include:

direct impact factors that directly affect the results of business activities, such as legislation, tax and financial systems, competition, etc.;

factors of indirect influence that do not have a direct impact, but contribute to its change, for example, world events, economic instability, political changes.

Internal factors are those conditions that an entrepreneur can change in the course of his activities and minimize in this way. possible risks. Internal factors include the range and quality of goods sold; the equipment used, the amount of expenses of the enterprise, etc.

The division of risk factors according to the degree of manageability is essential:

controlled factors depend on the quality of the enterprise. These include: the level of labor organization, the efficiency of resource use, etc.;

hard-to-control factors depend on the background of the enterprise and in the study period are hardly or partially amenable to influence. These include relationships in the team, qualifications and number of staff, etc.;

uncontrollable factors cannot be changed, but can only be taken into account. These include climatic and political conditions, exchange rates, etc.*

Risk classification.

Risk classification means the systematization of a set of risks based on some signs and criteria that allow combining risk subsets into more general concepts.

The most important elements underlying the risk classification are:

time of occurrence;
main factors of occurrence;
nature of accounting;
the nature of the consequences;
sphere of origin and others.

By the time of occurrence, risks are divided into retrospective, current and prospective risks. Analysis of retrospective risks, their nature and methods of reduction makes it possible to more accurately predict current and future risks.

According to the factors of occurrence, risks are divided into:

Political risks- these are risks caused by a change in the political situation that affects entrepreneurial activity (closure of borders, a ban on the export of goods, military operations in the country, etc.).
Economic (commercial) risks- these are risks caused by adverse changes in the economy of the enterprise or in the economy of the country. The most common type of economic risk, in which private risks are concentrated, are changes in market conditions, unbalanced liquidity (inability to fulfill payment obligations in a timely manner), changes in the level of management, etc.

According to the nature of accounting, risks are divided into:

External risks include risks that are not directly related to the activities of the enterprise or its contact audience ( social groups, legal and (or) individuals who show potential and (or) real interest in the activity specific enterprise). The level of external risks is affected by a large number of factors - political, economic, demographic, social, geographical, etc.
TO internal risks include risks caused by the activities of the enterprise itself and its contact audience. Their level is influenced by the business activity of the enterprise management, the choice of the optimal marketing strategy, policies and tactics, and other factors: production potential, technical equipment, level of specialization, level of labor productivity, safety measures.

According to the nature of the consequences, the risks are divided into:

Pure risks(sometimes they are also called simple or static) are characterized by the fact that they almost always carry losses for entrepreneurial activity. The causes of pure risks can be natural disasters, wars, accidents, criminal acts, incapacity of the organization, etc.
Speculative risks(sometimes they are also called dynamic or commercial) are characterized by the fact that they can carry both losses and additional profit for the entrepreneur in relation to the expected result. Reasons for speculative risks may be changes in market conditions, changes in exchange rates, changes in tax legislation, etc.

Risk classification in terms of the sphere of origin, which is based on the spheres of activity, is the largest group. In accordance with the areas of entrepreneurial activity, they usually distinguish: production, commercial, financial and insurance risk.

Production risk associated with the failure of the enterprise to fulfill its plans and obligations for the production of products, goods, services, other types of production activities as a result of the adverse effects of the external environment, as well as inadequate use new technology and technologies, basic and working capital, raw materials, working time. Among the most important reasons for the emergence of production risk, one can note: a decrease in expected production volumes, an increase in material and / or other costs, the payment of increased deductions and taxes, poor delivery discipline, destruction or damage to equipment, etc.

Commercial risk is the risk arising in the process of selling goods and services produced or purchased by the entrepreneur. The reasons for commercial risk are: a decrease in the volume of sales due to changes in market conditions or other circumstances, an increase in the purchase price of goods, loss of goods in the circulation process, an increase in distribution costs, etc.

financial risk associated with the possibility of a firm failing to meet its financial obligations. Main reasons financial risk are: depreciation of the investment and financial portfolio due to changes in exchange rates, failure to make payments.

insurance risk- this is the risk of the occurrence of an insured event stipulated by the terms and conditions, as a result of which the insurer is obliged to pay insurance compensation (sum insured). The risk results in losses caused by inefficient insurance activities both at the stage preceding the conclusion of the insurance contract and at subsequent stages - reinsurance, the formation of insurance reserves, etc. The main causes of insurance risk are: incorrectly determined insurance rates, gambling methodology of the insured.

Forming the classification associated with production activities, the following risks can be distinguished:

Organizational risks- these are the risks associated with the mistakes of the company's management, its employees; system problems internal control, poorly designed work rules, i.e. risks associated with internal organization company work.
Market risks- these are the risks associated with the instability of the economic situation: the risk of financial losses due to changes in the price of goods, the risk of a decrease in demand for products, translational currency risk, the risk of loss of liquidity, etc.
Credit risks- the risk that the counterparty will not fulfill its obligations in full on time. These risks exist both for banks (the risk of non-repayment of the loan), and for enterprises with receivables, and for organizations operating in the securities market
Legal risks- these are the risks of losses associated with the fact that the legislation was either not taken into account at all, or changed during the period of the transaction; risk of non-compliance with legislation different countries; the risk of incorrectly drawn up documentation, as a result of which the counterparty is not able to fulfill the terms of the contract, etc.
Technical and production risks- risk of damage environment(environmental risk); the risk of accidents, fires, breakdowns; the risk of disruption in the functioning of the facility due to design and installation errors, a number of construction risks, etc.

In addition to the above classifications, risks can be classified according to the consequences:

Tolerable Risk is the risk of a decision, as a result of which, if not implemented, the company is threatened with loss of profit. Within this zone, entrepreneurial activity retains its economic feasibility, i.e. there are losses, but they do not exceed the expected profit.

Critical Risk- is the risk at which the company is threatened with loss of revenue; those. the critical risk zone is characterized by the danger of losses that obviously exceed the expected profit and, in extreme cases, can lead to the loss of all funds invested by the enterprise in the project.

catastrophic risk- the risk at which there is an insolvency of the enterprise. Losses can reach a value equal to the property status of the enterprise. This group also includes any risk associated with a direct danger to human life or the occurrence of environmental disasters.

In the market environment, the processes of production, distribution, exchange and consumption of products do not imply the avoidance of risk in principle, but the readiness to foresee it and reduce it to the lowest possible level.

Entrepreneurial risk - it is the danger of potential loss of resources or deviation from the normative option, focused on rational use resources.

Any enterprise bears the risks associated with its production, commercial and other activities, any entrepreneur is responsible for the consequences of those taken. The risk factor makes the entrepreneur save and pay Special attention on calculations of the effectiveness of new projects, commercial transactions, etc. The risk factor in entrepreneurial activity increases especially during periods of unstable economic conditions, accompanied by inflationary processes, super-expensive loans, etc.

Concept and types of risk

Risk in business- this is the probability that the enterprise will incur losses or losses if the planned event (management decision) is not implemented, and also if miscalculations or errors were made when making management decisions. Entrepreneurial risk can be divided into production, financial and investment.

Production risk is directly related to the economic activity of the enterprise. Production risk is usually understood as the probability (possibility) of an enterprise failing to fulfill its obligations under a contract or agreement with a customer, risks in the sale of goods and services, errors in pricing policy, the risk of bankruptcy.

In production activities industrial enterprise the following risks can be identified:

the risk of a complete shutdown of the enterprise due to the impossibility of concluding contracts for the supply of materials, components and other initial products necessary for this technology;
the risk of not receiving raw materials due to the failure of concluded supply contracts, as well as the risk of non-return Money transferred to the supplier in the form of prepayments;
the risk of non-conclusion of contracts for the sale of manufactured products, works or services, i.e. the risk of complete or partial non-sale;
the risk of non-receipt or untimely receipt of funds for products shipped for sale;
the risk of the buyer refusing to receive and paid for products or the risk of a return;
the risk of disruption of concluded agreements for the provision of loans, investments or credits;
price risk associated with determining the price of products and services sold by the enterprise, as well as the risk in determining the price of the necessary means of production, used raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, labor force and capital (in the form of interest rates on loans). According to some calculations, a 1% error in the price of sold products leads to losses amounting to at least 1% of sales proceeds. If the demand for this product elastic, then losses can be 2-3%. With a product margin of 10-12%, a 1% price error can mean a 5-10% loss in profit. Price risk increases significantly in an inflationary environment;
the risk of bankruptcy business partners(contractors, distributors, suppliers, etc.), and the enterprise itself.

Financial risk is the probability of damage occurring as a result of any operations in the financial, credit and exchange areas, transactions with securities, i.e. risk that results from the nature of financial transactions. Financial risks include credit risk, interest rate risk, currency risk, risk of lost financial profit.

Credit risk is associated with non-payment by the borrower of the principal and interest accrued on the loan. Interest risk is the danger of losses by commercial banks, credit institutions, investment funds as a result of an increase in interest rates paid by them on borrowed funds over rates on loans granted. Currency risks reflect the risk of currency losses associated with changes in the exchange rate of one foreign exchange in relation to another, including the national currency, when conducting foreign economic, credit and other foreign exchange transactions. The risk of lost financial benefit is determined by the probability of financial loss that may result from the failure to carry out any activity or stop economic activity. In the investment activity of an enterprise, one can single out the risk of investing in securities, or "portfolio risk", which characterizes the degree of risk of reducing the yield of specific securities and the formed portfolio of securities, as well as the risk of innovation. New projects contain three types of risks:

risk associated with technical innovations;
risk associated with the economic or organizational side of production;
the risk determined by the "youth of the enterprise". Risks can also be classified according to other criteria. So, for example, risks are distinguished as pure and speculative, dynamic and static, absolute and relative. Net.risks means the possibility of a loss or a zero result. Usually they include production and investment risks. Speculative risks are expressed in the probability of obtaining both positive and negative results. Financial risks, for example, are considered speculative risks-

Dynamic risk is the risk of unforeseen changes due to management decisions or changes that have occurred in the economic, political and other spheres of public life. Such changes can lead to both losses and additional income. Static risk is the risk of loss due to damage to property, as well as loss of income due to the incapacity of the organization. This risk can only lead to losses.

The absolute risk is estimated in monetary units (rubles, dollars, etc.); relative risk - in fractions of a unit or in percent. For example, risk in business can be measured by an absolute value - the sum of losses and losses, and a relative value - the degree of risk, i.e. a measure of the probability of non-implementation of the intended event or failure to achieve the target level of profit, income, price. Both indicators are necessary and carry relevant information - absolute and relative risk.

Classification of types of entrepreneurial risk

It is possible to classify economic risks on the basis of many features. Similar attempts have already been made by fundamental science. J. Keynes, in his classification, considered risk through the prism of the "borrower-creditor" relationship.

Keynes believed that it would be expedient to single out three main types of risk:

entrepreneurial risk;
creditor risk;
money risk.

Entrepreneur risk arises in view of the doubt as to whether it will actually be possible to acquire the prospective benefit that he predicts. This type of risk arises when an entrepreneur uses only his own money.

Creditor risk associated with doubts about the validity of the trust, i.e. with the danger of intentional or other attempts by the debtor to evade the performance of obligations; and also with the possible risk of involuntary bankruptcy due to the fact that the borrower's expectations for income were not met. This type of risk arises where lending operations are practiced, by which J. Keynes understood the provision of loans.

Money risk associated with a decrease in the value of the currency. Based on this, J. Keynes believed that a money loan, to a certain extent, is less reliable than tangible assets.

It should be noted that the factors of uncertainty and risk in the conditions of the modern economy are all stages of reproduction - from the purchase of raw materials to the delivery finished products consumers. At the same time, it is necessary to highlight the relationship between risk and profit. One example of manifestation direct relationship between risk and potential profit, capital growth rate - short-term bonds: this type of securities has the least risk, and capital growth is the slowest, on the contrary, a common stock with a minimum degree of security has the fastest capital growth.

Classification of business risk areas

The economic literature reflects several areas of risk that an enterprise may fall into in the course of economic activity. The basis for establishing risk areas appropriate to take the share of the firm's assets that it loses as a result of its activities. Depending on the state of the enterprise, it may be located in one of the following zones, while simultaneously falling into bankruptcy of varying degrees. This depth of fall affects the way out of bankruptcy within the institution of insolvency.

There are the following areas, Related risk:

risk-free area;
acceptable risk area;
area of crisis;
disaster area.

1. Risk free area - is characterized by the absence of losses, the operations performed guarantee a minimum of standard profit, the potential profit of the company is not limited, and its receipt occurs, as a rule, at the expense of equity, When borrowed capital equals zero.

2. Area of acceptable risk characterized by a level of losses that do not exceed the expected profit, and entrepreneurial activity retains its financial and market feasibility.

3. Area of crisis, characterized by loss. The area of crisis is characterized by the danger of losses that obviously exceed the expected profit and, at the maximum, can lead to the irretrievable loss of all funds invested by the entrepreneur in the business.

In reality, this type of risk manifests itself in difficulties with the necessary cash flow, which can increase if creditors come to the conclusion that it is dangerous to renew the contract even at an increased interest rate (since the risk of returning funds increases with a decrease in the value of the equity of the company) and the company will have to pay not only interest but also the principal amount.

Being in this area of entrepreneurial risk, the company, experiencing a liquidity crisis, will enter a state of "absolute" insolvency, which can be considered as bankruptcy, and the latter is the basis for initiating a liquidation procedure. This degree of bankruptcy is called business bankruptcy - as a result of inefficient enterprise management, marketing policy or misuse of , and .

To create conditions for stable reproduction requires certain costs of real resources, which are called transaction costs(from the English transaction - a deal).

is the value of resources used in the course of solving the problem of coordination and distributive conflicts within the institutional environment and institutional relations.

These costs consist of:

costs of searching for information on prices and required resources;
contracting costs;
control over their implementation and legal support.

If some enterprises fail to pay transaction costs, there is a possibility of bankruptcy. In other words, the bankruptcy of enterprises is the price paid by the population and the state for the presence of transaction costs.

This conclusion is based on an analysis of the work of Ronald Coase, who revealed the fundamental role that transaction costs perform and must perform in the process of formation of institutions - elements of the macroeconomic system. The most important form of accommodation to the problem of the presence of transaction costs is the emergence of the firm. If there were no transaction costs, then there would be no need for a firm, an enterprise, a corporation.

In a planned economy, the place of transaction costs was occupied by planning and coordination costs, which were not considered by either Ronald Coase or other researchers, although they are also available in the form of government costs to compensate for externalities. Low efficiency state enterprises rather, their permanent pre-bankrupt state during the period of the planned economy was due to the need for constant administrative coordination of all stages of their production activities (i.e., high planning and coordination costs), while the market mechanism implies much lower transaction costs, however, and a deeper fall.

4. Area of catastrophe represents an area of losses that exceed the crisis level in scale and can reach a size equal to the real value of the enterprise. In this case, the decrease in the firm's profitability implies a decrease in its price. The price of a firm as a business unit is defined as the product of the number of common shares (N) and their market price(R). The market value of the firm = NP. In this area of risk, the price of the firm may fall below the amount of liabilities to creditors, which is equivalent to minimizing share capital. This is the bankruptcy of the shareholders or the bankruptcy of the owner. This option is possible as a result of the owner's lack of resources for expanded or even simple reproduction, despite the fact that there is a need for this type of product on the market. True, there are some nuances here. Due to the fall in the price of the firm, the latter may fall below the liquidation value of the assets. Then the liquidation of the firm becomes more profitable than its operation, and if the liquidation value of the firm is lower than the price of obligations, then the shareholders lose all their capital. Such a phenomenon is called production bankruptcy. Also, the catastrophe risk category should include the risk associated with a direct danger to human life or the occurrence of man-made disasters, which is especially likely when using obsolete means of production.

Safarova Elvira Shamilovna, student
Bashkir State Agrarian University

BUSINESS RISKS

The article describes the concept of entrepreneurial risk, its essence and types of classifications.

The current state of business risk insurance in the Russian Federation
Assessment of business risks and criteria for choosing the effectiveness of their solution
Efficiency of risk assessment and possible socio-economic consequences of risk occurrence
Legal regulation of the issues of assessing the quality of public (municipal) services provided in Russia

Any business activity is subject to risks.

Risk is usually understood as the potential (possible) danger of losses that arise from the specifics of certain natural phenomena or human activities.

Entrepreneurial risk is a risk arising from any type of business activity related to the production of products, the sale of goods and the provision of services; commodity-money and financial transactions; commerce, as well as the implementation of scientific and technical projects.

Entrepreneurial risk- the danger of a potentially possible, probable loss of resources or a shortfall in income in comparison with their expected (forecast) value. The complexity of classifying entrepreneurial risks lies in their diversity. There are certain categories of risks that affect all types of business activities, but at the same time there are specific risks that affect only companies that operate in certain areas of activity. For example, specific risks are inherent in production, trade, banking, and insurance activities.

Based on the sources of occurrence, all entrepreneurial risks can be divided into internal and external.

Internal risks arise directly in the company itself: risks generated by personnel (low level of qualification, incompetence, abuse); inefficient management, miscalculations in strategic planning and so on.
External risks include risks that are beyond the control of the company, i.e. the company cannot influence them, but can only foresee: natural disasters, strikes, hostilities, changes in legislation and taxation systems, nationalization, the introduction of restrictions on the financial and credit market, etc.

According to the time of exposure, entrepreneurial risks can be divided into short-term and permanent ones.

Short term risks exist for a certain period of time and, in principle, can be clearly defined. For example, the risk of payment for delivered goods exists until the buyer counterparty settles.
Permanent risks continuously threaten the business of a company in a particular geographic region or area of business, for example, for farming in a particular geographic region, there is always an inherent risk of adverse natural conditions(frost, drought, heavy rains, etc.), which have a negative impact on the yield of cultivated crops.

Entrepreneurial risk can also be divided into industrial, commercial and financial.

Production risk is directly related to the economic activity of the enterprise, focused on obtaining maximum profit by meeting the needs and requests of customers in accordance with market requirements.

In the production activities of an industrial enterprise, the following risks can be distinguished:

the risk of complete or partial shutdown of the enterprise due to failures in the supply of materials, components and other resources necessary to ensure the production;
the risk of selling manufactured products (problems with sales);
the risk of non-receipt or untimely receipt of funds for products shipped for sale;
the risk of the buyer refusing to receive and paid for products or the risk of a return;
the risk of disruption of concluded agreements for the provision of loans, investments or credits;
price risk associated with determining the price of products and services sold by the enterprise, as well as the risk in determining the price of the necessary means of production, used raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, labor and capital (in the form of interest rates on loans). Significant miscalculations in pricing can have catastrophic consequences for the enterprise, lead to a significant loss of market share, an increase in product balances (unsold products), etc. Price risk increases significantly in an inflationary environment;
the risk of bankruptcy of both business partners (counterparties: distributors, suppliers, etc.) and the enterprise itself.

Commercial risk Connected with commercial activities. It arises in the process of selling goods and services produced or purchased by the enterprise (for example, trade risks, transport risks, risks competition and so on.).
financial risk Connected with financial activities. It arises in the implementation of financial transactions, based on the fact that the role of a commodity is capital, securities, currency (for example, credit risk, currency, interest, investment).

Entering the market, we will have to deal with uncertainty and increased risk. Not to avoid risk, but to be able to assess its probability, degree and acceptable limits - this is the task of any market subject. In itself, the presence of risk that accompanies the activity market enterprise, is not a disadvantage market economy. Moreover, the absence of risk, that is, the risk of unpredictable and undesirable consequences for the enterprise of its own actions, as a rule, harms the economy, as it undermines its dynamism and efficiency.

Bibliography

Zapolskikh Yu.A., Bakirova A.F. Bankruptcy risk management in modern conditions management In the collection: World science and modern society: topical issues of economics, sociology and law. Materials of the International scientific-practical conference. 2013. S. 84-87.
Zaripova, G.M. Financial and credit support of entrepreneurship [Text] / G.M.
Zapolskikh Yu.A. Credit risk and the main ways to minimize it. Economy and society. 2014. No. 2-2 (11). pp. 126-128.

Chapter 5. Entrepreneurial risk

5.1. The essence of entrepreneurial risk

It is legally established that entrepreneurial activity is risky, i.e. the actions of business participants in the conditions of existing market relations, competition, the functioning of the entire system of economic laws cannot be calculated and implemented with complete certainty. Many decisions in entrepreneurial activity have to be made under conditions of uncertainty, when it is necessary to choose a course of action from several options, the implementation of which is difficult to predict (calculate, as they say, one hundred percent).

Risk is inherent in any field human activity, which is associated with many conditions and factors that affect the positive outcome of people's decisions. Historical experience shows that the risk of not getting the intended results has become especially evident with the universality of commodity-money relations and the competition of participants in economic turnover.

The development experience of all countries shows that ignoring or underestimating economic risk when developing tactics and strategies economic policy making specific decisions inevitably hinders the development of society, scientific and technological progress, dooms economic system to stagnation. The emergence of interest in the manifestation of risk in economic activity is associated with the implementation of economic reform in Russia. The economic environment is becoming more and more market-based, introduces additional elements of uncertainty into entrepreneurial activity, and expands the zones of risk situations. Under these conditions, ambiguity and uncertainty arise in obtaining the expected final result, and, consequently, the degree of entrepreneurial risk also increases.

The economic transformations taking place in Russia are characterized by an increase in the number of business structures and the creation of a number of new market instruments. In connection with the processes of demonopolization and privatization, the state rightfully abandoned the role of the sole risk bearer, shifting all responsibility to business structures. However big number entrepreneurs open their business under the most unfavorable conditions. The growing crisis of the Russian economy is one of the reasons for the increase in entrepreneurial risk, which leads to an increase in the number of unprofitable enterprises.

A significant increase in the number of unprofitable enterprises allows us to conclude that it is impossible not to take into account the risk factor in entrepreneurial activity, without this it is difficult to obtain results of activity that are adequate to the real conditions. It is impossible to create an effective mechanism for the functioning of an enterprise based on the concept of risk-free management.

Risk is an objectively inevitable element of making any economic decision due to the fact that uncertainty is an inevitable characteristic of business conditions. In the economic literature, there is often no distinction between the concepts of "risk" and "uncertainty". They should be delimited. In fact, the first characterizes a situation where the occurrence of unknown events is very likely and can be quantified, and the second - when the probability of such events cannot be estimated in advance. In a real situation, a decision taken by an entrepreneur is almost always associated with risk, which is due to the presence of a number of unforeseen uncertainties.

It should be noted that the entrepreneur has the right to partially shift the risk to other economic entities, but he cannot completely avoid it. It is rightly considered: who does not risk, he does not win. In other words, in order to obtain economic profit, an entrepreneur must consciously take a risky decision.

We can say with confidence: uncertainty and risk in entrepreneurial activity play a very important role. important role, containing a contradiction between the planned and the actual, i.e. source of business development. Entrepreneurial risk has an objective basis due to the uncertainty of the external environment in relation to the firm. The external environment includes the objective economic, social and political conditions within which the firm operates and to the dynamics of which it is forced to adapt. The uncertainty of the situation is predetermined by the fact that it depends on many variables, contractors and persons whose behavior cannot always be predicted with acceptable accuracy. There is also a lack of clarity in the definition of goals, criteria and indicators for their evaluation (shifts in public needs and consumer demand, the emergence of technical and technological innovations, changes in market conditions, unpredictable natural phenomena).

Entrepreneurship is always associated with the uncertainty of the economic situation, which arises from the volatility of supply and demand for goods, money, factors of production, from the multivariance of areas for the investment of capital and the variety of criteria for the preference for investing funds, from limited knowledge about the areas of business and commerce, and many other circumstances.

The economic behavior of an entrepreneur in market relations is based on an individual program of entrepreneurial activity chosen and implemented at one's own risk within the framework of the possibilities that arise from legislative acts. Each participant in market relations is initially deprived of previously known, unambiguously set parameters, guarantees of success: a secured market share, access to production resources at fixed prices, stability of the purchasing power of monetary units, immutability of norms and standards and other tools of economic management.

The presence of entrepreneurial risk is, in fact, the reverse side of economic freedom, a kind of payment for it. The freedom of one entrepreneur is accompanied simultaneously by the freedom of other entrepreneurs, therefore, as market relations develop in our country, uncertainty and entrepreneurial risk will increase.

It is impossible to eliminate the uncertainty of the future in entrepreneurial activity, since it is an element of objective reality. Risk is inherent in entrepreneurship and is integral part his economic life. Until now, we have paid attention only to the objective side of entrepreneurial risk. Indeed, the risk is associated with real processes in the economy. The objectivity of risk is associated with the presence of factors, the existence of which ultimately does not depend on the actions of entrepreneurs.

The perception of risk depends on each specific person with his character, mindset, psychological characteristics, level of knowledge in the field of his activity. For one entrepreneur, this amount of risk is acceptable, while for another it is unacceptable.

Currently, there are two forms of entrepreneurship. First of all, these are commercial organizations based on old economic ties. In a situation of uncertainty, such entrepreneurs try to avoid risk, trying to adapt to changing business conditions. The second form is the newly created business structures, characterized by well-developed horizontal ties and broad specialization. Such entrepreneurs are ready to take risks, in a risky situation they maneuver resources, they are able to find new partners very quickly.

5.2. Classification of business risks

The complexity of classifying entrepreneurial risks lies in their diversity. Entrepreneurial firms always face risk in solving both current and long-term problems. There are certain types of risks that everyone is exposed to without exception. business organizations, but along with the general ones, there are specific types of risk characteristic of certain types activity: for example, banking risks differ from risks in insurance activities, and the latter, in turn, from risks in industrial business.

The species diversity of risks is very large - from fires and natural disasters to interethnic conflicts, changes in legislation regulating business activities, and inflationary fluctuations.

An entrepreneur faces risk at different stages of his activity, and, naturally, there can be a lot of reasons for the emergence of a particular risk situation. Usually, the cause of the occurrence is understood as some condition that causes the uncertainty of the outcome of the situation. For risk, such sources are: directly economic activity, the activity of the entrepreneur himself, the lack of information about the state of the external environment that affects the result of entrepreneurial activity. Based on this, it is necessary to distinguish:

risk associated with economic activity;
the risk associated with the personality of the entrepreneur;
risk associated with a lack of information about the state of the external environment.

According to the sphere of occurrence, entrepreneurial risks can be divided into external and internal. The source of external risks is external environment towards a business firm. The entrepreneur cannot influence them, he can only anticipate and take them into account in his activities.

Thus, external risks include risks that are not directly related to the activities of the entrepreneur. It's about about unforeseen changes in the legislation regulating entrepreneurial activity; instability of the political regime in the country, and other situations, and, accordingly, the losses of entrepreneurs resulting from the outbreak of war, nationalization, strikes, embargoes.

source internal risks is itself a business firm. These risks arise in the case of inefficient management, erroneous marketing policies, and also as a result of intra-company abuse.

The main internal risks are personnel risks associated with the professional level and character traits of the company's employees.

From the point of view of duration in time, entrepreneurial risks can be divided into short-term and permanent ones. The short-term group includes those risks that threaten the entrepreneur during a finite, known period of time, for example transport risk when losses may occur during the carriage of goods, or the risk of default on a particular transaction.

Permanent risks are those that continuously threaten businesses in a given geographic area or industry, such as the risk of non-payment in a country with a flawed legal system, or the risk of building collapse in an area with a high seismic hazard.

According to the degree of legitimacy of entrepreneurial risk, the following can be distinguished: justified (legitimate) and unjustified (illegal) risks.

All business risks can also be divided into two large groups in accordance with the possibility of insurance: insured and uninsured. An entrepreneur can partially shift the risk to other economic entities, in particular, protect himself by incurring certain costs in the form of insurance premiums. Thus, some types of risk, such as the risk of property loss, the risk of fire, accidents, etc., the entrepreneur can insure.

Insurance risk is a probable event or set of events against which insurance is carried out. Depending on the source of danger, insurance risks are divided into two groups:

risks associated with the manifestation of the elemental forces of nature (weather conditions, earthquakes, floods, etc.);
risks associated with purposeful human actions.

Risks worth insuring include:

probable losses as a result of fires and other natural disasters;
probable losses as a result of car accidents;
probable losses as a result of damage or destruction of products during transportation;
probable losses as a result of errors of the company's employees;
probable losses as a result of the transfer by employees of the company commercial information competitors;
probable losses as a result of non-fulfillment of obligations by subcontractors;
probable losses as a result of the suspension business activity firms;
probable losses as a result of possible death or illness of the head or leading employee of the company;
probable losses as a result of a possible illness, death or accident with an employee of the company.

There is another group of risks that insurance companies do not undertake to insure, but at the same time, it is the assumption of an uninsurable risk that is a potential source of profit for an entrepreneur. But if losses as a result of insurance risk are covered by payments from insurance companies, then losses as a result of uninsurable risk are compensated from own funds entrepreneurial firm.

Two more large groups of risks should be distinguished: statistical (simple) and dynamic (speculative). The peculiarity of statistical risks lies in the fact that they almost always carry losses for entrepreneurial activity. At the same time, losses for the firm, as a rule, mean losses for society as a whole.

According to the cause of losses, statistical risks can be further subdivided into the following groups:

probable losses as a result of a negative effect on the company's assets of natural disasters (fire, water, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.);
probable losses as a result of criminal actions;
probable losses due to the adoption of unfavorable legislation for the company (losses are associated with direct seizure of property or the inability to recover compensation from the culprit due to imperfect legislation);
probable losses as a result of a threat to the property of third parties, which leads to the forced termination of the activities of the main supplier or consumer; losses due to the death or incapacity of key employees of the firm or the main owner of the firm (due to the difficulty of recruiting qualified personnel, as well as problems of transfer of ownership). Unlike statistical risk, dynamic risk carries either a loss or a profit for the firm. Therefore, they can be called "speculative". In addition, dynamic risks leading to losses for an individual firm can simultaneously bring benefits to society as a whole. Therefore, dynamic risks are difficult to manage.

5.3. Risk indicators and methods for its assessment

Risk is a probabilistic category, and in this sense, it is most reasonable from a scientific point of view to characterize and measure it as the probability of a certain level of losses occurring. Thus, strictly speaking, with a detailed, comprehensive risk assessment, it would be necessary to establish for each absolute or relative value of the magnitude of possible losses the corresponding probability of occurrence of such a magnitude. The construction of such a table or curve of loss probabilities is the initial stage of risk assessment. But in relation to entrepreneurship, this is most often an extremely difficult task. Therefore, in practice, one has to limit oneself to simplified approaches, assessing the risk according to one or more main indicators, criteria, and values representing generalized characteristics that are most important for judging risk acceptability. To this end, we will initially single out certain areas, or zones, of risk, depending on the magnitude of the losses.

The area in which losses are not expected is called the risk-free area; zero or negative losses correspond to it.

The zone of acceptable risk is understood as the area within which this type of business activity retains its economic feasibility, i.e. there are losses, but they are less than the expected profit. The boundaries of the zone of acceptable risk correspond to the level of losses equal to the estimated profit from entrepreneurial activity.

The next, more dangerous area is called the critical risk zone. This is an area characterized by the possibility of losses in excess of the value of the expected profit and up to the value of the full estimated, expected revenue from entrepreneurship. In other words, the critical risk zone is characterized by the danger of losses that obviously exceed the expected profit and, in the limit, can lead to the unreimbursed loss of all funds invested by the entrepreneur in the business. In the latter case, the entrepreneur not only does not receive any income from the transaction, but also incurs losses in the amount of all fruitless costs.

In addition to the critical, it is advisable to consider an even more frightening - catastrophic risk. The catastrophic risk zone is an area of losses that exceed the critical level in magnitude and, in the limit, can reach a value equal to the entrepreneur's property status. Catastrophic risk can lead to collapse, bankruptcy, complete collapse of the enterprise, its closure and sale of property. The catastrophic category should include (regardless of property or monetary damage) the risk associated with a direct danger to human life or the occurrence of environmental disasters. Losses exceeding the property status of the entrepreneur are not considered, since they cannot be recovered.

The probabilities of certain levels of loss are important indicators for making judgments about the expected risk and its acceptability. The constructed curve of distribution of profit loss probabilities can be called the risk curve. So, let's say, if the probability of a catastrophic loss is expressed by an indicator that indicates a tangible threat of losing the entire state (for example, with its value equal to 0.2), then a sane, cautious entrepreneur will obviously refuse such a business, will not take such a risk.

Thus, if, when assessing the risk of entrepreneurial activity, it is possible to construct not the entire curve of risk probabilities, but only to establish characteristic points - the probability of zero losses, the most probable level of risk and the probability of an acceptable critical, catastrophic loss, the assessment problem can be considered successfully solved. The values of these indicators, in principle, are sufficient to take a reasonable risk with open eyes in the vast majority of cases.

Among the applied methods of risk assessment, we single out statistical, expert, computational and analytical.

The essence of the statistical method is that the statistics of losses that have occurred in similar types of business activities are studied, the frequency of occurrence of certain levels of losses is established. If the statistical array is sufficiently rich and representative, then the frequency of occurrence of a given level of losses can be equated in the first approximation to the probability of their occurrence and, on this basis, a loss probability curve can be constructed, which is the desired risk curve.

We note one important circumstance. When determining the frequency of occurrence of a certain level of losses by dividing the number of relevant cases by their total number, one should include in the total number of cases those business transactions in which there were no losses, but there was a gain, i.e. excess of estimated profit. Otherwise, the indicators of the probability of losses and the threat of risk will be overestimated.

The expert method, known as the method of expert assessments, in relation to entrepreneurial risk can be implemented by processing the opinions of experienced entrepreneurs or specialists. It is most desirable that experts give their estimates of the probabilities of occurrence of certain levels of losses, according to which it would then be possible to find the average values of expert estimates and use them to construct a probability distribution curve.

You can even limit yourself to obtaining expert estimates, the probabilities of a certain level of losses at four characteristic points, i.e. establish in an expert way indicators of the most probable, acceptable, critical and catastrophic losses, bearing in mind both their levels and probabilities. Based on these four characteristic points, it is easy to reproduce approximately the entire loss probability distribution curve. Of course, with a small array of expert estimates, the frequency graph is not representative enough, and the probability curve based on such a graph can only be built approximately. But nevertheless, a certain idea of the risk and the indicators characterizing it can be obtained, and this is already much better than not knowing anything.

Calculation and analytical methods for constructing a loss probability distribution curve and estimating business risk indicators on this basis are based on theoretical concepts. Unfortunately, the applied theory of risk is well developed only in relation to insurance and game risk. Elements of game theory, in principle, are applicable to all types of entrepreneurial risk, but applied mathematical methods for estimating production, commercial, financial risk based on game theory have not yet been created.

In addition to the proposed methods for determining the degree of risk, the following methods of risk assessment are often used in the practice of entrepreneurs.

In some cases, the measure of risk (as the degree of expected failure in case of failure in the process of achieving the goal) is determined through the ratio of the probability of failure and the degree of adverse consequences that may occur in this case.

The degree of risk is sometimes defined as the product of the expected harm and the probability that the harm will occur. In connection with establishing the relationship between the magnitude of the risk of the chosen solution, as well as the possible damage caused by this decision, and the obviousness with which the damage is caused, it is assumed that the best solution is the one with minimal risk. In other words, being exposed to minimal risk, a person in a given situation acts optimally. To select a solution with minimal risk, it is proposed to use the risk function

H \u003d Ar 1 + (A + B) p 2,

where H is the risk; A and B - damage from the chosen solutions; p 1 , p 2 - the degree of confidence that errors will occur when making these decisions.

Probability of technical and commercial success, i.e. taking into account the risk and assessing its degree, is determined depending on the nature of the product that is expected to be obtained as a result of the sale and other factors. Each of them can be identified by a table that helps calculate the probability of success of projects.

In some cases, to determine the degree of risk and select optimal solutions, the "decision tree" technique is used. It involves graphical construction of the various options that can be taken. According to the "branches of the tree", subjective and objective assessments of these events are correlated ( expert opinions, the size of losses and incomes, etc.). Following along the constructed "branches of the tree", using special methods for calculating probabilities, each variant of the path is evaluated. This allows you to fairly reasonably approach the determination of the degree of risk and the choice of the optimal solution. Risk is defined as the sum of the damage caused as a result of an incorrect decision and the costs associated with the implementation of this decision.

5.4. Basic ways to reduce risk

A high degree of project risk leads to the need to find ways to artificially reduce it. In the practice of project management, the following methods of risk reduction are used:

diversification;
distribution of risk between project participants (transfer of part of the risk to co-executors);
insurance;
hedging;
reservation of funds;
covering unforeseen expenses.

Let's take a look at each of these ways to reduce risk.

Diversification: Diversification refers to investing financial resources into more than one type of asset, i.e. this is the process of distributing invested funds among various investment objects that are not directly related to each other. The firm in its economic activity, anticipating a drop in demand or orders for the main type of work, prepares spare work fronts or reorients production to produce other products.

The use by the firm of a diversified portfolio approach in the securities market (a combination of various securities) allows you to minimize the likelihood of shortfall in income. Diversification involves two main ways risk management- active and passive.

Active management is a forecast of the size of possible income from the main economic activity from the implementation of several investment projects.

The active tactics of the company to promote products involves, on the one hand, close monitoring, study and implementation of the most effective investment projects, capturing a significant market share with a specialization in homogeneous production, and on the other hand, the fastest possible reorientation of one type of work to another, including possible relocation to another territory, market.

Passive management provides for the creation of an unchanging market for goods with a certain level of risk and a stable holding of one's position in the industry. Passive management is characterized by low turnover, a minimum level of concentration of work volumes.

Distribution of risk between project participants. The usual practice of risk allocation is to make responsible for the risk of the project participant who is best able to calculate and control the risks. However, it often happens that this particular partner is not strong enough in financially to overcome the consequences of the action of risks.

Consultant firms, equipment suppliers, and even most contractors have limited risk-recovery funds that they can use without endangering their existence.

The distribution of risk is implemented in the development financial plan and contract documents.

Like risk analysis, its distribution among project participants can be qualitative and quantitative.

Qualitative risk distribution implies that project participants make a series of decisions that either expand or narrow the range of potential investors. The greater the degree of risk participants intend to assign to investors, the more difficult it is for project participants to attract experienced investors to finance the project.

Therefore, project participants are encouraged to be as flexible as possible in the negotiation of how much risk they are willing to accept. The willingness to negotiate the issue of taking on a greater share of the risk of the project participants can convince experienced investors to reduce their requirements.

Insurance. Risk insurance is essentially the transfer of certain risks to an insurance company.

Two main types of insurance can be applied: property insurance and accident insurance. Property insurance can take the following forms:

contract construction risk insurance;
sea cargo insurance;
insurance of equipment owned by the contractor.

Accident insurance includes:

general civil liability insurance;
professional liability insurance.

Marine cargo insurance provides protection against material loss or damage to any construction cargo transported by sea or by air. The insurance covers all risks, including force majeure, and covers the movement of goods from the shipper's warehouse to the consignee's warehouse. In other words, each shipment of cargo is insured for the entire process of its movement, including ground transportation to the port of shipment and from the port of discharge.

Contractor-owned equipment insurance is widely used by contractors and subcontractors when they use a large amount of high replacement value equipment owned by them in their operations.

This form of insurance usually covers rental equipment as well. In addition, it is often used to protect against the effects of physical damage to vehicles.

General liability insurance is a form of accident insurance and is designed to protect the general contractor in the event that a third party suffers bodily injury, personal injury or property damage as a result of his activities. Professional liability insurance is provided only when the general contractor is responsible for the preparation of the architectural or technical part of the project, project management, other professional services by project.

Hedging. For implementation different methods insurance of currency and interest risks in banking, exchange and commercial practice, hedging is used (from the English hedge - to protect).

Hedging is the process of insuring risk against possible losses by transferring the risk of price changes from one person to another.

Transactions, the subject of which is the delivery of an asset, are called forward in the future. Transactions aimed at the immediate delivery of an asset are called syllabic (cash) transactions.

The first person is called a hedger, the second - a speculator. There is also a third participant in the derivatives market - an arbitrageur. An arbitrageur is a person who makes a profit by simultaneously buying and selling the same asset in different markets if different prices are observed on them. The contract, which serves to insure against the risks of changes in rates (prices), is called a "hedge".

Hedging can protect the hedger from losses, but at the same time deprives him of the opportunity to take advantage of favorable market developments. Hedging is carried out using the conclusion term contracts: forward, futures and options.

A forward contract is an agreement between two parties on the future delivery of the subject of the contract, which is concluded outside the exchange and is binding.

A futures contract is an agreement between two parties on the future delivery of the subject of the contract, which is concluded on the exchange, and its execution is guaranteed by the clearing house of the exchange.

An option contract is an agreement between two parties on the future delivery of the subject of the contract, which is concluded both on the exchange and outside the exchange and provides the right of one of the parties to execute the contract or refuse to execute it.

The subject of the agreement can be various assets - currency, commodities, stocks, bonds, indices and more.

Reserve funds for contingencies. Creating a contingency fund is one way to manage risk by balancing potential risks that affect the cost of a project against the costs required to overcome project disruptions.

The main problem in creating a contingency reserve is to estimate potential consequences risks.

When determining the amount of the contingency reserve, it is necessary to take into account the accuracy of the initial cost estimate of the project and its elements, depending on the stage of the project at which this estimate was carried out.