Decision making is the process of analyzing, forecasting and evaluating the situation, choosing and agreeing on the best alternative to achieve the goal.

Hence, decision making process is the process by which a decision maker chooses the most effective option from many alternatives.

This process is an activity carried out according to a certain technology using various methods and technical means, aimed at resolving a certain management situation by forming, and then implementing the impact on the control object. In the organizational aspect, this process is a set of stages that naturally follow each other in a certain temporal and logical sequence of stages, between which there are complex direct and feedback links. Each stage corresponds to specific labor actions aimed at developing and implementing a solution. This repetitive system of actions is usually called the technology of the process of developing and implementing decisions.

At any level, a manager must deal with a whole stream of decisions. Some decisions are similar to those that have been made before, others are completely new, and yet so important that they require careful consideration. Decisions sometimes have to be made on your own, sometimes by interacting with other people.

Stages of the decision-making process

Typical decision-making processes implemented in the most various fields activities have much in common, therefore, some universal “typical” scheme of the decision-making process is needed, which establishes the most appropriate set and sequence of actions. This scheme should be considered not as a rigid algorithm for developing and making a managerial decision, but as a logical and most acceptable scheme of manager's actions in frequently encountered problem situations.

A typical decision-making process includes:

• preliminary formulation of the problem;
• determination of the goals of the solution and selection of appropriate optimality criteria;
• identifying and setting limits;
• compiling a list of alternatives and their preliminary analysis in order to exclude clearly ineffective;
• collection of management information and forecasting changes in the solution parameters in the future;
• exact formulation of the task;
• analysis and selection of a method for solving the problem and development of a solution algorithm;
• development of a solution model that allows evaluating the effectiveness of each alternative;
• evaluation of alternatives and selection of the most effective ones;
• decision-making;
• bringing the decision to the performers;
• implementation of the solution and evaluation of the result.

Problem concept

The need to develop a management solution arises when the problem is recognized. Therefore, we will pay some attention to the problems.

The presence of a problem can be represented as a critical discrepancy between the desired position and the real one.

There are two approaches to defining the problem.

According to the first problem, a situation is considered when the set goals are not achieved.

In the second case, an existing potential opportunity is considered as a problem. Awareness of the problem arises at a certain critical value of the mismatch between the existing and desired values ​​of the effect. This critical value is determined for each specific situation using typical representations.

Problem indicator - the achievement of one or more parameters of the effect of a critical value. At the same time, they distinguish:

• awareness of the problem - the establishment of the fact of its existence as a result of the control of activities or the study of market opportunities. The problem, which has reached a certain severity, is transformed into a motive for the activities of the organization and its managers;
• problem definition - answering the questions: what is really happening in the organization, what are the reasons for what is happening and what is behind it all. The definition and subsequent formulation of the problem allows the manager to rank it among other problems. In addition, it is very important that all persons involved in the development of a management decision have the same (unambiguous) understanding of the essence of the problem.

The following factors can be used as the basis for determining the priority of the problem:

• consequences of the problem;
• the impact of the problem on the organization;
• urgency of solving the problem and time constraints;
• motivation and availability of appropriate abilities among the participants;
• the ability to solve a problem without the participation of management or in the course of solving other problems.

Decision steps

Step 1: Diagnosing the Problem

Diagnosing a problem involves five steps.

First stage in diagnosing a complex problem - identifying and understanding the symptoms of difficulties or opportunities.

These are the symptoms:

low profits, sales, productivity and quality, excessive costs, numerous conflicts and high employee turnover.

Usually several symptoms complement each other, such as excessive costs and low profits.

Second phase- Establishing the causes of the problem.

To this end, it is necessary to collect and analyze internal and external (relative to the organization) information, for which they can be used as formal methods (outside the organization - market analysis, inside it - computer analysis financial statements, interviewing, inviting management consultants or employee surveys), and informal (conversations about the current situation, personal observations). Only relevant information should be used, i.e. data relating only to a specific problem, person, purpose, and time period. Due to complex contacts and close interrelationships in the organization, it is often difficult to identify the problem. The job of the marketing manager, for example, affects the job of the sales manager, the foremen in production, the R&D department, and every other person in the company. In a large organization, there may be hundreds of such interdependencies, so correctly defining a problem and setting a goal based on problem analysis is half a solution to it, but this is difficult to apply to organizational decisions. As a result, diagnosing a problem in itself often becomes a multi-step procedure with intermediate decisions.

Third stage- Determining the nature of the problem.

This is one of the most important stages in diagnosing a problem, since the choice of basic approaches to solving it depends on it.

The problem is functional in nature if it manifests itself and, accordingly, can be solved at the level of functions of the organizational and production system, i.e. if its solution is possible:

• when switching to the release of a new product or service;
• when the market sector changes;
• when changing the position and nature of relationships with suppliers, competitors, distribution system;
• when changing forms of ownership;
• when it changes industry affiliation and other changes affecting the fundamentals of the organizational and production system.

These are the most complex and resource-intensive problems that require restructuring and changing the entire organizational and production system as a whole. When functions change, the structure and parameter values ​​must change.

The problem is structural in nature and, accordingly, can be solved by changing the structure of the organizational and production system, if its solution does not yet require a change in functions, but can no longer be achieved by changing the numerical values ​​of individual parameters. The need for structural changes may arise:

• when changing the marketing strategy;
• development of a new product similar to the one produced;
• transition to new type contractual relations with existing partners (offer, leasing, factoring, etc.).

The problem is parametric in nature if it can be eliminated by changing only the parameters of the organizational and production system.

It is possible to judge whether the problem is external or internal in nature by what combination of critical parameter mismatches is observed. If a critical mismatch is observed only for the output parameters, and the input parameters are normal, then the problem is internal. If at the same time there is a critical mismatch of both input and output parameters, then the problem certainly has external causes and there may be internal causes.

It must be remembered that, as a rule, changing functions will require more resources than changing the structure, and changing the structure - more resources than changing parameters.

Stage 2. Formulation of constraints and decision criteria

A very important condition for the correct formation of decision alternatives and the choice of the most preferable one is the definition of restrictions and the formulation of decision criteria.

Restrictions vary and depend on the situation and individual leaders.

The following general restrictions can be distinguished:

• non-compliance constraints (inadequate resources);
• personnel restrictions (insufficient number of employees with the required qualifications and experience);
• financial constraints (inability to procure resources at affordable prices);
• restrictions scientific and technological progress(need for yet undeveloped technology);
• market restrictions (tough competition);
• legal and moral and ethical restrictions (laws and moral and ethical standards of behavior);
• authority restrictions.

As a rule, for large organizations there are fewer restrictions than for small or many difficulties.

In addition to restrictions, the manager needs to define the standards by which alternative choices are to be evaluated, i.e. a measure of comparison of alternatives must be defined. Such criteria when concluding an agreement with manufacturing plant can be:

• product quality;
• Wholesale price;
• terms of order execution;
• company image;
• Additional services.

It is also very important to take into account the priority of the criterion, since the choice of solution also depends on this.

Step 3: Identify alternatives

Ideally, it is desirable to identify all possible options problem solving, i.e. create a "field of alternatives". However, in practice, the manager rarely has sufficient knowledge or time to formulate and evaluate each alternative, so he, as a rule, limits the number of comparison options to just a few alternatives that seem to be the most suitable.

For this purpose, the method of morphological analysis (construction of morphological maps) is often used. An in-depth analysis of difficult problems is needed to develop several truly different alternatives.

Stage 4 Evaluation of alternatives

After compiling a list of solutions, one should proceed to the evaluation of each alternative. The evaluation of alternatives includes determining the advantages and disadvantages of each of them and the possible consequences of its choice. Due to the inevitability of negative consequences associated with any alternative, almost all important management decisions are developed with a compromise in mind.

To compare decisions, the decision-making criteria established at the stage of formulating constraints and criteria are used. Some of the selection criteria are quantitative, while others are qualitative. If any alternative fails to meet one or more of the established criteria, it cannot be considered realistic.

All decisions must be presented in a comparable form. It is desirable that this be the same form in which the goal is expressed. For the successful implementation of a management decision, the following conditions must also be met:

• provide sufficient motivation for performers;
• prevent the possibility of distortions in the understanding of the decision taken by the executors and, as a result, the risk of damage.

An important point in evaluating decisions is to determine the likelihood of each of them being implemented in accordance with the intentions. The manager includes probability in the assessment, taking into account the degree of uncertainty or risk. The most important aspects of the problem of decision making under conditions of uncertainty and risk will be considered in further lessons.

Stage 5. Choice of an alternative

If the previous stages of development management decisions performed carefully, alternative solutions are weighed and evaluated, then the manager chooses an alternative with the most favorable estimates and consequences. Often, in the case of solving complex problems, you have to make compromises.

Unfortunately, it is not always possible to find the optimal solution due to lack of time, the inability to take into account all the necessary information and all alternatives, so the manager chooses the solution that is obviously the most acceptable, while not necessarily the best possible one.

Stage 6. Implementation of solutions

The real value of the solution becomes apparent only after its implementation. To successfully solve the problem using the chosen alternative, it is necessary to effectively organize and motivate the performers in the process of implementing the solution.

Stage 7. Feedback (control of the implementation of the decision)

Once the decision has taken effect, feedback must be established to monitor and ensure that actual results match those planned at the time the decision was made. In this phase, the consequences of the decision are measured and evaluated, or the actual results are compared with those that the manager hoped to obtain. Feedback is the flow of information about what happened before, during and after the implementation of the solution. It allows the manager to correct actions without allowing significant damage.

In each organization, the practice of developing and making managerial decisions has its own characteristics, due to the nature and specifics of the activity, its structure, the current communication system, and internal culture. However, the general, characteristic of any decision-making process, is the basis of the development and decision-making technology used in any organization.

Methods for developing and making managerial decisions

Methods used at the stage of diagnosing a problem and formulating criteria and restrictions.

At the stage of diagnosing a problem and formulating criteria and restrictions, the following are applied:

• Method of situational analysis;
• Modeling method

The situational analysis method assists in the analysis of the situation, the establishment of factors influencing the development of the situation.

situational analysis- these are complex technologies for the preparation, adoption and implementation of a managerial decision, which are based on the analysis of a single managerial situation.

Situation is a combination of internal and external factors, circumstances, conditions, active forces, requiring the adoption of appropriate strategic and tactical decisions that determine the activities of the organization, as well as ensuring the prevention of crisis phenomena.

Preparing for a situational analysis

Preparation begins with a clear definition of the decision-making situation.

A correctly set task is half the success, therefore, all specialists invited to participate in the situational analysis unambiguously and equally understood the goals of the analysis being carried out and the tasks facing them.

To ensure that the situational analysis is carried out in accordance with modern technologies, a special analytical group is being created.

One of the main tasks of the analytical group is to clearly define and set the task of situational analysis for specialists invited to participate in its implementation. At the same time, the goals of analyzing the situation, the goals of preparing alternative options and developing recommendations for making strategic and tactical management decisions should be clearly formulated.

Defining goals and setting the task of situational analysis are carried out by the analytical group together with the decision maker (DM).

Information is being prepared on the situation, internal and external factors, related problems affecting the development of the situation.

A meaningful description of the situation is made in the form of an analytical reference.

Information analysis

The analysis of the received information about the decision-making situation begins with the search for possible analogues. Information about analogues is presented in the form of a certain number of reference situations.

The reference situation is characterized by the fact that quite a lot is known about it, in particular, what decisions were made, what were the results and what decisions led to the goal.

If the situation falls into the category of reference ones, then it is already known how to act. If the situation is such that there are no close reference situations, then all information, together with information about previous similar non-reference situations, is transmitted by analysts to the expert group.

As a result of the work, an analytical review is being prepared for the participants in the collective expertise on the development of strategic and tactical decisions.

Review sections:

1. Strategic and tactical decisions taken earlier in the analyzed situation and similar to it;
2. Mechanisms for executing relevant decisions; /li>
3. Control over the execution of decisions;
4. Accompanying the progress of their implementation;
5. The effectiveness of previous decisions;
6. The effectiveness of their implementation;

In the future, this information is taken into account at all stages of the development of strategic and tactical decisions.

Analysis of the situation

One of the main tasks of this stage is to analyze the key profile problems of the situation, including an assessment of:

• the weak and strengths
• hazards and risks
• prospects for the development of the situation within the framework of the problems under consideration.

The result of such an analysis is a clearer presentation of the problems that arise in connection with the current situation.

The task of analyzing the situation is considered completed if, as a result of it, the decision maker receives a clear, sufficient full view about the situation necessary for making important management decisions.

The stage of situation analysis completes the assessment of the stability of the situation to possible changes in the external and internal environment, to the most probable changes in indicators characterizing the dynamics of the development of the situation.

Development of scenarios for possible development of the situation

Scenario development begins with a meaningful description and definition of a list of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation.

Very often the Brainstorming method is used here.

Determining the list of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation forms the main focus of the analytical work. The most common forms of scenarios involve the formation of a list of the main factors influencing the development of the situation.

Based on the results obtained, an examination is carried out in order to identify the main dangers and risks, strengths and prospects for the development of the situation.

This stage ends with an assessment of the expected stability of the situation for the developed alternative scenarios for its development.

Assessment of the situation

Once the most likely scenarios have been identified possible development situations, the main dangers and risks, strengths and prospects are identified, the experts give an assessment in terms of the possibility of achieving the goals of the organization.

In parallel with the assessment of the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation, at this stage it is supposed to generate proposals for the development of alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions in the analyzed situation.

Data processing and evaluation of the results of the examination

We list the most important cases when data processing is necessary to determine the results of collective expert assessments:

• Structuring information;
• Rejection and systematization of information;
• Formation of the evaluation system;
• Development of expert forecasts of the situation;
• Development of alternative scenarios for the development of the situation;
• Generation of alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions;
• Comparative evaluation of alternative options for strategic and tactical decisions.

The results obtained during data processing, as well as the results of the evaluation of the examinations carried out, are used in the preparation of materials for the decision maker (DM) on the situational analysis.

Preparation of analytical materials based on the results of the situational analysis

This is the final step. It summarizes all the work done. The main task of this stage is to prepare analytical materials containing recommendations in various areas, namely:

• Making strategic and tactical decisions in the analyzed situation;
• Mechanisms for their implementation;
• Control over the execution of decisions;
• Accompanying the implementation of decisions made;
• An analysis of the results, including an assessment of the effectiveness of the decisions made and their implementation.

Methods applied at the stage of identifying alternatives

At this stage, it is necessary to identify all possible options for solving the problem, to form the so-called "field of alternatives".

This is what they do at the level of solving state problems.

At lower levels, practice shows that managers do not have sufficient knowledge or time to formulate and evaluate each alternative, so they tend to limit the number of comparison options to a few alternatives that seem to be the most suitable.

For this purpose, the following methods for generating alternatives are used:

• Method " brain attack»
• Morphological analysis
• Methods of associations and analogies.
• Methods control questions and collective notepad
• Discovery matrix method
• Synectics

Brainstorming method for generating alternatives

The brainstorming method is based on the psychological effect of an intellectual explosion.

A group of 5-8 people is invited to each express ideas and proposals for solving the problem. The result is N ideas. If the group speaks out collectively on the task, then N * K ideas will be obtained. During a brainstorming session, a chain reaction occurs in which one idea gives rise to several other ideas, resulting in an intellectual explosion.

The brainstorming method is designed to activate the search for various solutions and choose the best one. It is widely applied in management practice in order to get the maximum amount original ideas for a short period of time. 30-40 minutes.

In brainstorming, the group is divided into generators and critics. Generators express as many ideas as possible, and critics evaluate these ideas. All expressed ideas are recorded on paper or on audio.

Brainstorming Rules:

• Brief presentation of the idea (less than 1 minute)
• Absence at the 1st stage of criticism of the statements of proposals
• The possibility of developing the idea expressed earlier;
• Ability to record ideas on audio.

Morphological analysis

This method, developed in 1942 by the American astrophysicist Zwicky, is used to expand the scope of the search for solutions to the problem. It involves an in-depth classification of objects and allows, based on the construction of a model (two- or three-dimensional matrix), to obtain new solutions, making combinations of elements of a morphological model (matrix). The main stages of the analysis:

1. determination of the characteristics of the object or tasks;
2. definition of types of tasks implementation;
3. formation of a morphological model in the form of a matrix, where the vertical reflects the totality of all tasks that need to be solved to achieve the goal. Horizontally, for each task, a variant (one or more) of the solution is given;
4. obtaining combinations of matrix elements, each new solution being a combination of elements taken one at a time from each row of the matrix;
5. analysis to determine the compatibility of elements with each other in the resulting combination. In case of incompatibility, the combination is excluded from consideration.
6. The remaining options are evaluated and compared according to established criteria. The best option is selected.

Methods of associations and analogies

These methods involve the activation of human associative thinking.

These methods include the method of focal objects and the method of generating random associations.

The method of focal objects consists in transferring the features of randomly selected objects to the object being improved, which lies at the focus of the transfer.

As a result, a number of unexpected solutions emerge.

Method for generating random associations

The method assumes the presence of two lists. List of objects and list of features. Based on these lists, a third list is formed - a list of links between objects and features. Random combinations of objects and features are used, as a result of which random associations are formed.

Control question method

This method is used for psychological activation of the creative process. The essence of the method is to lead to the solution of the problem with the help of leading questions. The method can be applied in individual work, and in a collective discussion of the problem, for example, during a brainstorming session.

Collective notepad method

The method allows you to combine the independent presentation of ideas by each member working group with their collective assessment and decision-making process.

Each section receives a notebook in which they write down the nature of the problem in general terms, as well as data to help navigate it. During the month, each participant writes down in a notebook the ideas that arise regarding the problem under consideration, evaluates them and determines which of them can provide the best solution to the problem. At the same time, the most expedient directions of research are formulated. In addition, ideas are fixed that are not related to this problem, but the development of which may be useful for finding a final solution.

Discovery matrix method

This method is widely used in France. As in the morphological method of synthesis, the goal here is to systematically explore all conceivable options arising from the regularities of the structure (morphology) of the system being improved, to select and study the field of possible solutions.

The method of discovery matrices, as a rule, does not give complete solutions and serves to systematize the available material and determine the starting points for further research. The combinations of characteristics obtained using this method provide an opportunity for fruitful associations, posing problems that previously went unnoticed.

Synectics

This is a comprehensive method of stimulation creative activity using the techniques and principles of both Brainstorming and the method of analogies and associations.

The very word "Synectics" is a neologism, meaning the union of heterogeneous elements.

The method is based on the search for the desired solution by overcoming the psychological inertia, which consists in the desire to solve the problem in the traditional way. Synectics allows you to go beyond a particular way of thinking and greatly expands the scope of the search for new ideas by presenting the unusual to the familiar.

The synectics method makes extensive use of personal analogy (empathy). A person mentally gets used to the image of the system under consideration, trying to identify himself with it and analyze the sensations that arise. This helps in the synthesis of new variants of systems.

Synectics has been successfully used to solve particularly complex problems, as well as to test the feasibility of various ideas.

Methods applied at the stage of evaluation of alternatives

After compiling a list of solutions, one should proceed to the evaluation of each alternative. Evaluation of decisions includes determining the advantages, disadvantages and possible consequences of each of them.

The following methods are used to compare solutions:

• multi-criteria assessment;
• expert evaluation.

These methods make it possible to compare decision alternatives according to previously established (at the stage of formulating criteria and restrictions) criteria. To determine the possible consequences of the adoption of each of the alternatives, methods are widely used:

• search forecasting;
• normative forecasting.

Let us consider in more detail the features and content of these methods.

Methods for multi-criteria evaluation of alternatives

When developing management decisions, it is important to correctly assess the current situation and alternative solutions in order to choose the most effective solution that meets the goals of the organization.

An organization, a decision maker, when making decisions, is guided by the goals that they seek to achieve. Each goal must be accompanied by a criterion by which the degree of achievement of the goal can be assessed.

So, for example, if the goal is to ensure the high quality of a product manufactured by an enterprise, then the quality of the product can act as an integral criterion, and indicators that characterize the functionality of the product (economic, environmental, ergonomic, as well as indicators of reliability, safety and etc.). Naturally, having previously estimated the values ​​of particular criteria for an object, we can more reliably assess the quality of the object as a whole.

Sometimes the only criterion used to assess the object of examination is called a scalar one, and the set of criteria characterizing the object of examination is called a vector criterion.

Properties of criteria for evaluating alternatives

A set of criteria intended for evaluating an object of expertise should have a number of properties that make its use justified:

• completeness - the criteria included in the set should provide an adequate assessment of the object of expertise or an assessment of the degree of achievement of the goal facing the decision maker, if the set of criteria is intended for this. In other words, the set of criteria should present criteria that characterize all the main aspects of the assessment. Having received the values ​​of the expert's assessments for each of the criteria included in the set, we should be able to evaluate the object of examination;
• effectiveness (operationality) - the criteria must be unambiguously understood by both experts and the decision maker and contribute to the development and adoption effective solutions, i.e. characterize the main aspects of the analyzed situation and be available for obtaining assessments on them;
• decomposability - it is more convenient for an expert or decision maker to work with a small number of criteria (according to some authors, there should be no more than 7 criteria), so if the analyzed situation is such that it should be evaluated using too many criteria, then it is advisable to break them down (decompose) into smaller groups for the convenience of simultaneous work with them;
• non-redundancy - in order to avoid duplication in assessing the analyzed situation, the criteria must be non-redundant. It happens that redundancy arises due to the simultaneous consideration of both the criteria characterizing the results obtained and the means of achieving them, or the simultaneous consideration of both the input and output characteristics of the system; minimum dimension - in the set of criteria for assessing the analyzed situation, it is advisable to include only those criteria without which such an assessment is impossible. This principle also aims to ensure that the multi-criteria evaluation procedure is not unnecessarily cumbersome.

Peer review methods

For a wide range of informal problems (in the political, ideological, economic, social, military and other spheres human activity) expert procedures are the most effective, and in some cases may be the only means of solving them.

The method of expert evaluation is based on the construction by a highly qualified specialist (expert) of a rational procedure for intuitive-logical analysis in combination with a quantitative assessment and processing of the results.

The scope of expert assessment methods is very wide.

Typical tasks solved by expert evaluation methods are as follows:

• compiling a list of the accomplishment of possible events in various areas of the organization's activities for a certain period of time;
• definition of goals and objectives of management with ordering them in order of importance (ranking in the tree of goals);
• identification of alternative options for solving the problem with an assessment of their preferences;
• alternative distribution of resources for solving the problem with an assessment of their preference, etc.

When performing their role in the management process, experts perform two main functions:

• form objects of expertise (alternative situations, goals, decisions, etc.);
• measure the characteristics of the formed objects (probability of the event, coefficients of significance of goals, decision preferences, etc.).

Methods used at the stage of selection, implementation of the solution and evaluation of the result

After receiving estimates for each of the alternatives, the manager must select one of the alternatives for subsequent implementation. This step can be performed by comparing the obtained estimates of the alternatives with or without the use of computer technology. As a rule, the alternative that has the highest scores according to the established criteria is selected.

After the final choice of the alternative, the managerial decision is adopted and approved through the appropriate organizational and administrative activities (preparation, signing of the order, its communication to the executors).

After bringing the order to the executors, the implementation of the decision is carried out, i.e. implementation by the responsible executors of all the measures specified in the order. All stages of the implementation of the decision are controlled by the management, and after the implementation of the decision, the results are evaluated, the results of the work performed are analyzed and recommendations are developed for further management activities. At the stage of evaluation and analysis of the results, the following methods of analysis of management decisions can be used:

• method of functional cost analysis;
• chain substitution method;
• method of cause-and-effect analysis, etc.

Let's take a closer look at these methods.

Functional cost analysis method

It is used not only in the technical field, but also in solving managerial tasks for the formation organizational structures, organization of the work of personnel, increasing the efficiency of the functioning of departments. This is a universal method of choosing solutions that allows you to optimize the costs of performing the functions of an object without compromising their quality, and also helps to develop recommendations for further improvement of the object.

The main essence of the method is to represent an object in the form of a set of functions (functional model) and decide whether all the functions are really necessary, which of them can be combined or removed without compromising quality.

The method has proven itself well in the management practice of developing and making decisions: it has a high practical utility in the field of building organizational management structures, including when analyzing the functions of performers (identifying unnecessary functions, neutral, negative, etc.) and choosing the optimal quality match performance of functions with the cost of their implementation

Chain substitution method

The method is used to develop and make decisions in the event that the problem has a strictly expressed functional character. In this case, the function must be expressed as either a product, or a partial separation of some indicators by others, or a sum.

The essence of the method lies in the successive replacement of the planned values ​​of one of the factors, provided that the other factors remain unchanged. The degree of influence on the function of one or another factor is determined by successively subtracting the i-th calculation from the j-th one. Moreover, in the first calculation, all values ​​are planned, and in the last - actual.

Method of causal analysis

The manager in his work is constantly faced with manifestations of causes and effects as integral elements of the process of emergence and development of problem situations. In resolving such situations, the method of cause-and-effect analysis can be useful.

When undesirable consequences are detected, the manager can choose one of three actions:

• eliminate these consequences;
• buy time and eliminate the consequences later;
• adjust to the new situation.

If the manager believes that it is necessary to correct the situation, then, depending on the situation, he can react as follows:

• the reason is clear, so the question is only to choose the appropriate action;
• the reason is not clear, so you need to analyze the problem before solving it;
• the reason, apparently, is clear, so we must begin to act (trial and error option).

The main difficulty in working with causal chains is determining the moment where and when to stop.

Thus, we have considered the main groups of methods that can be used at various stages of the development and adoption of managerial decisions. We note once again that many of them are universal in nature and can be applied at several stages of the decision-making process, depending on the characteristics of each specific situation.

Section 2 - "Models, methodology and organization of the process of developing a management decision"

Lecture 4 "Technology for the development of management decisions"

1 The structure of the management decision-making process

Solution development- this is not just a one-time volitional act carried out by the decision maker. Solution development inevitably becomes a process. By definition, any process is a change in time. At the same time, it does not matter whether the changes take place continuously, smoothly, or, conversely, discretely, abruptly.

For methodological reasons, it is convenient to have a single continuous solution development process conditionally divided into three phases or stages:

Stage 1 justification solutions.

2. Stage acceptance solutions.

3. Stage organizations implementation of decisions

Under substantiation decisions is understood as a sub-process of carrying out all the preparatory work for the implementation of a conscious choice of decision maker. This work should be based on the concepts and principles of development. Conceptually, it includes the following main tasks:

- in-depth analysis of the problem and the formation of a goal on this basis;

- awareness and study of the genesis and features of the "mechanism" of the conditions for the operation;

- formation of a representative set of alternatives for achieving the goal of the operation.

Under adoption decision making is understood as a sub-process of gradual psychological preparation by him of himself for a responsible step - the implementation of a conscious choice of the best alternative among the set of alternatives formed at the stage of substantiating decisions. In this regard, decision-making is the highest mental exertion of the will, a creative effort and a psychological leap from a state when there was no decision yet, to a state when it has already manifested itself.

Term "making decisions" can be used in narrow sense. At the same time, we will regard the adoption of a decision as a single implementation of a particular action by the decision maker when solving a particular problem or issue at any stage of the decision development process.

Under organization execution of decisions is understood as a sub-process of accumulation of resources and administrative actions in relation to them, and to specific executors.

Rationale for the decision begin with problem situation analysis. Due to the significant excess of the number of problems over the real possibilities of the decision maker to resolve them, the very choice of a problem for solution is already a problematic situation. Problems are dynamic objects. They constantly arise, exist and leave the field of vision of the decision maker over time. The decision maker constantly solves the question for himself: “What are the problems of today, and which one is it appropriate to start with?”

After listing problems The decision maker must make the first important decision - to choose the most important problem from the list.

When a problem for solution is selected from the list of problems, the decision maker personally (sometimes with the involvement of experts) conducts an in-depth substantive problem analysis. As a result of the analysis, a decision is made about the essence of the problem.

After the problem has been analyzed and its description has been drawn up, which is equally understandable to all participants in the decision development process (DM, experts, executors in terms of it), they proceed to the task of formulating a goal and forming (choosing) a result. The goal, like the problem, must be written down.

After the purpose of the operation is clearly formulated, the decision maker must immediately decide how (in what way) estimates of the values ​​of the results of the operation will be obtained for carrying out evaluation of the preference of alternatives.

To compile a list of them and reveal the genesis of the main factors of the problem situation and its "mechanism", access to direct and indirect sources is widely used. sources of information.

After collection of information The decision maker can move to the phase formation of the initial set of alternatives. The arsenal of methods currently used to generate a representative set of alternatives is extensive. However, all of them are based to some extent on the experience and sometimes on the intuition of the decision maker.

After that you can choose evaluation criterion alternatives and get evaluation of alternatives according to the selected criterion.

This completes the stage rationale for decisions and the acceptance phase begins. On this stage decision maker needs formulate preferences and at least partially formalize them for measurement. Preference- this is an expression of the subjective attitude of a particular person (DM) to the objects presented to him to choose from ( many presentation) for a specific purpose and under completely objective conditions. In order to identify preferences, decision makers offer to compare the elements of the presentation set and do this according to certain rules. As a result, the so-called system of preferences of the decision maker can be obtained from the decision maker, i.e., the system of his personal internal psychological attitudes that force him to perform one or another specific act in situations of choice:

Confident choice of only one of the objects among the set of presentations, since the decision maker considers this object to be better than all others;

A confident choice of several objects among the presented ones, and all the selected objects are considered by the DM to be “the same”, i.e., they do not have advantages over each other and at the same time are the best in comparison with all other, unselected objects.

When forming preferences, human consciousness is guided by objective and subjective factors, both emotional and rational components.

The formulated preferences of the decision maker allow build function choice. On the set of its admissible solutions, a subset is formed rational alternatives, for which a meaningful analysis is carried out and choice « the best alternatives, which satisfies the set goal.

Choosing the best alternative allows you to start the stage organizations solutions. First of all, the decision must be formalized legally (in the form of an order, order), then planning, selection of performers, resource provision, coordination of implementation and control of the actual results are carried out.

3. Model of the problem situation

The decision maker, who has assessed the importance and urgency of the problem, wants to resolve it immediately and is in a state of crisis - a psychological turning point.

According to the systematic approach, in order to approach the solution of the problem from scientific positions, the decision maker should build problem situation model. As problem situation models Let's accept a set of interrelated verbal and formal problems of substantiating decisions, the consistent solution of which will lead to desired goal– choosing the best alternative, the “best solution”.

When considering a model of a problem situation, a task will be understood as an ordered statement (verbal or formal), consisting of two parts. The first part is what is known, or "Given". The second is what is not known, but "required" ("Find"). Accordingly, depending on the form of description, we will distinguish verbal and formal (or mathematical) task setting. It is clear that a formal statement of the problem can be obtained only on the basis of a verbal one. For a rational choice of the form of setting a particular problem, one should be guided by their advantages and disadvantages. Some comparative characteristics of verbal and formal formulations of problems are presented in Table.

Table 2.1 - Comparative characteristics of problem statements

Quality assessment criteria	Main Forms of Problem Statements
	"Verbal"	"Formal"
Historical order
The level of unambiguity in understanding the conditions of the problem	Low (due to the fact that it is difficult to ensure the unity of the language, to achieve unambiguous semantics of words and expressions)	High (due to the unity and rigor of the mathematical language, the unambiguity of the semantics of mathematical expressions)
Interpretability	High (due to the imagery of the language, its redundancy and the ability to take into account the context)	Low (due to excessive formalism, dryness of expressions)
Complementation by other means of increasing the adequacy of the perception of statements	Wide Range additional funds: audiovisual, visual, gaming tools	Limited opportunities; diagram charts, tables

The set of tasks in the model of the problem situation is presented in the form of Figure 2.7. In order to obtain a mathematical statement of the problem, identifiers are introduced denoting variables and constants, and the physical, economic, social and other connections appearing in verbal statements are modeled by introducing logical, arithmetic, algebraic and mathematical relationships between variables and constants. The areas of acceptable values ​​of controlled and uncontrolled factors model the manifestations of the laws of nature, restrictions on active resources, and so on. These restrictions are formed by equations and inequalities of the corresponding form.

Figure 2.7 - The structure of the problem situation model

As shown in Figure 2.7, modeling a problem situation turns each stage of the development of a managerial decision into a task that has its own private goal ("It is required to find") and conditions ("Given"). In turn, each task is divided into questions. A significant part of this set of tasks is solved personally by the decision maker, some - with the involvement of experts. In more detail, the characteristics of the tasks are presented in Table 2.2.

Table 2.2 - Characteristics of particular tasks of the problem situation model

Task name	The purpose of solving the problem		Verbal statement of the problem
Problem analysis task		Ensuring the principle of purpose. Choice of the most actual problem from the list of problems and the formation of a criterion		List of problems, ideas of decision makers about the relevance and urgency of their solution, their own capabilities and preferences		Description of the upcoming operation, its expected results, criteria for evaluating the effectiveness
The task of modeling the mechanism of the situation		Ensuring the principle of measurement. Obtaining in the given scales of assessments of the results of the application of alternatives		The results of the analysis of the problem, assessment of the conditions for the operation, information about the nature of the factors and the patterns of their relationship in the operation		Type of model, types of scales for obtaining results and basic modeling relationships
The task of obtaining information		Ensuring the principle of information sufficiency. Information support of the solution development process		Problem analysis results, situation mechanism modeling results		Sources of obtaining information, ways of accessing sources of information and forms of presenting information
The problem of forming the initial set of alternatives		Ensuring the principle of freedom		Problem analysis results, solution selection results		Form several alternative solutions to the problem (at least two alternatives)
Preference Modeling Problem		Ensuring the principle of optimality		The purpose of the operation, the results of modeling the mechanism of the situation		The decision maker's preference model
Selection task		Decision-making		The purpose of the operation, many alternatives		"Best Alternative"
The task of evaluating the actual effectiveness of decisions		Generalization and transfer of experience		Actual results of the performed operation, assessment of actual effectiveness		Conclusions about the significance of the successes achieved or the causes of failures, adjustments to previously made decisions

3 Problem diagnosis

The initial stage in the development of management decisions is problem analysis and problem diagnosis relating to the decision justification process. Under problem situation the existing combination of facts of the external and internal environment of the enterprise is understood. The classification of problem situations is presented accordingly in Figure 2.7.

Figure 2.7 - Classification of problem situations

Problem- this is a discrepancy between the real combination of factors that is desirable or that which is optimal in terms of the characteristics of the enterprise. The content of the problem determines the formulation of the objectives of the decision.

1. With fully controllable and predictable parameters. They provide a deterministic result and are solved by adaptive methods.

2. With partially (40-80%) controlled and predictable parameters. The most frequently encountered.

3. With uncontrollable and unpredictable parameters. solved by heuristic methods.

Problems are classified according to the sources of occurrence:

- functioning problems are related to the fact that the actual results of the activity did not reach the required level;

- development problems - the discrepancy between potential opportunities and achieved goals. A complete classification of problems is shown in Figure 2.8

Figure 2.8 - Classification of problems

Problem Definition starts with fixation symptoms- separate private manifestations of trouble. It is also important to identify reason the above phenomena.

The information collected must be two sets of questions:

1. Characteristics of the problem: its content, degree of impact, place and time of occurrence;

2. Causes of the problem.

In addition to identifying the causes problem factors) it is necessary to determine the degree of their influence (individual and cumulative), possible vectors of their development. Every phenomenon has two causes: one obvious, the other genuine.

Finding out the reasons allows you to determine the purpose of the decision, its type and class. Correctly formulated goals should meet the following requirements:

- concreteness - fixing those parameters that the objects of solutions should have;

- reachability and tension;

- consistency, consistency, single-mindedness;

- time binding.

The possibility of achieving the set goal is determined by obstacles and contributing goals.

4. Factors of making a managerial decision

objective are factors independent of the decision maker. An idea about them is given by the collected information about the state of the system, external factors affecting it.

First of all, this external operating conditions of the company. They are the factors of the immediate (microenvironment) environment (consumers, suppliers, competitors, the state) and macroenvironment factors (politics, economics, etc.).

internal the state of the system, as already mentioned, is determined by the state of each of its elements and the optimality of the connections between them. In relation to the organization, tools (machines, mechanisms, devices), objects of labor (raw materials, materials), as well as people who, with the help of tools, transform the object of labor into a finished product, can be considered as elements.

subjective are factors associated with the decision maker and affecting the adequacy of his perception of the objective position of the system. The most important of which are innovativecapabilities manager, skill creatively deal with problem solving, ability to appreciate the situation make up your mindon reasonable risk, Availability logical thinking. IN modern conditions necessary is computer literacy level, possession of a personal computer (PC).

Finally, subjective factors include personaltraits decision maker, which are made up of mental processes, mental states And mental properties.

Mental processes are divided into three types: cognitive, strong-willed And emotional. In its turn cognitive include Feel, perception, memory, thinking, performance, imagination, attention. related to mental processes motivational processes, defining orientation interests, preferences, claims personalities who often have a decisive influence on the formation of the type of leader and determine the criteria that he will be guided by when choosing alternatives

Mental states is the reaction of the individual to external and internal factors aimed at achieving a certain result. These states are varied and changeable ( optimism, cheerfulness, fatigue, mental satiation, apathy, depression, anxiety and so on) .

Mental properties are divided into are common And individual. TO general relate restrictions on individual capabilities, forcing a person to become a member of the organization, to accept its norms and values ​​in order to meet their needs.

Individual properties - the degree of limitation of opportunities compared to others, the level of development and the degree of severity of an individual's mental properties (perception, emotional reactivity, speed of thinking), temperament, character, level of claims and system of preferences.

Here manifest two important patterns.

1. The individual qualities of people are manifested to a much greater extent in the decision-making process, they influence the way the decision is made.

2. Individual characteristics people are so interconnected and inseparable from each other that they affect the ways of making decisions only in total; this allows you to weaken the impact of the negative aspects of the intellect and increase the influence of the strengths.

special factor impact is Wednesday, which is characterized four indicators: certainty, risk, uncertainty, conflict.

Certainty is expressed in the fact that the result can be predicted in advance and the degree of predictability of this prediction is close to unity. It depends on the completeness and reliability of the information and the accumulated experience of actions based on this information.

Under risk conditions are understood when a positive result of the decision can be calculated with a certain degree of probability, which ranges from 0 to 1.

Uncertainty- this is a situation where the number of factors influencing the process is large and the relationships between them are so complex that it is almost impossible to obtain any reliable information about these relationships. All innovative decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty.

Level extremeness influences the nature of decisions made and has three classes:

Class I - the number of possible scenarios is limited, they are known or predictable, thus preparation for solving problems (snowfall in winter) is possible. Situations can be resolved by situational management methods;

Class II - the number of possible options is large, and therefore there is no way to think them over and prepare for solving problems. Situations require special professional psychological training, including the development of scenarios for people's behavior in extreme situations, the creation of regulatory documentation that regulates people's actions, the formation of special reserves of all kinds;

III class- unpredictable situations, solved completely on an intuitive level

Conflict occurs within the organization. The conflict with the agents of the external environment realizes itself in risk and uncertainty. Naturally, this refers to a destructive conflict, when the parties cannot find a compromise solution.

5 Information support of management decision

In the course of solving the problem, it is required to determine the source of information, choose a method for accessing the source of information and decide on the form of presentation of the initial, intermediate and output information for decision makers and other users. When solving each of these issues, first of all, they proceed from the requirements for accuracy, reliability, reliability, validity and persuasiveness of the solution being developed.

Conceptual classification scheme sources and methods of obtaining information is presented in Figure 2.9. It follows from the analysis of this scheme that, in principle, there are only three sources information:

Empirical data (we will briefly denote "EXPERIENCE");

Knowledge, personal experience and intuition of the decision maker ("LPR");

Expert advice (briefly - "EXPERTISE").

It is important to choose the right source and establish a method for obtaining the necessary information. In order to meaningfully resolve this issue, it is advisable to analyze the quality characteristics of the principal ways of obtaining information.

Figure 2.9 - Classification of sources and methods of obtaining information

The most significant of the characteristics of these methods are presented in table 2.3.

Table 2.3 - Characteristics of methods for obtaining information

On the first stage (justification of the decision) the object of collection, processing and analysis is first order information (I1). This is the most general information, containing a wide range of information and allowing, firstly, to formulate the situation and, secondly, to determine the problem that is relevant in currently. This information includes information about the deviation of the actual state of the system from the standard, as well as the causes of the problem, which are explained either by the impact external environment or disruption of the functioning of the internal environment.

Stage two (decision making)) requires the collection of a completely different type of information. Since the content of this stage is the formulation of directions for solving the problem, the information second order (II) concerns the detection of defects in the communication system of the organization and the collection of information on the ways in which these violations can be eliminated. The second-order information is undoubtedly much more specialized and deals with a narrower range of problems, but should be much more detailed and specific.

Information third order (IS) should give an idea of ​​what advantages and disadvantages, from the Fenian point of view, the limitations and criteria each of the alternatives under analysis has. This may be information about the size and composition of resources, the time required to implement the decision, social consequences choosing one or the other alternative. Regardless of the Stage at which the information is selected, certain requirements are imposed on it, non-compliance with which can lead to incorrect results in the decision-making process.

Particular attention should be paid to forecasting information designed to formulate the conditions for future decisions based on those decisions that have been made today. In other words, when making a decision today, we are modeling situations in the near future or a more distant period.

6 Generation of management decision alternatives and criteria for their evaluation

The ability of decision makers to generate new, non-standard solutions is often identified with art. Apparently, this is due to the fact that the task of forming the initial set of alternatives not amenable to complete formalization. Let's define system requirements, which the set of alternatives must correspond to.

Firstly, the set of alternatives should be as large as possible wide. In the future, this will provide the necessary freedom of choice for decision makers and will minimize the possibility of missing out on the “best” solution. The first, fundamental requirement is in conflict with the natural restrictions on time, place and opportunities in which decision makers usually have to work.

this implies second requirement to the original set of alternatives. This set should be visible so that the decision maker has more time to evaluate the preference of alternatives, and the performers have more time to put the found best solution into practice. In accordance with the systemic principle of decomposition, it is first recommended to form a set of alternatives, all elements of which potentially, according to their appearance, the possibilities hidden in them, ensure the achievement of the goal.

In cases of deterministic, stochastic or naturally indeterminate "mechanisms of the situation", the method of forming the initial set of alternatives involves performing fairly simple actions. To some extent, they all come down to a series of purposeful modifications of controllable factors that determine the effectiveness of the operation. At the same time, the decision maker explores the possibility of simultaneously influencing the “controlled” component of these factors, since it is this method of control that most often leads to the emergence of positive emergent properties in future alternatives.

The set of options for solving the problem obtained in the course of engineering or operational synthesis will be called many "target alternatives" . After receiving the "target alternatives", one should select from them those options that are logically consistent and can be implemented within the time allotted for the operation. At the same time, the left alternatives must be necessarily satisfied both with active resources and correspond to the general system of preferences of the decision maker. These selected variants (from among the target ones) will be called "physically realizable" . Thus, the remaining options that potentially lead to the goal, but are physically unrealizable, are discarded.

Received subset "physically realizable alternatives" supplement with options that give the methods the necessary flexibility and stability in relation to possible changes in future conditions for the operation. As a result of the work done, they get what we will later call "original set of alternatives" .

Conditionally everything methods forming a set of alternatives can be divided into classes, differing in the degree of formalization of the applied technologies. We will discuss the various methods in more detail below.

Criterion comes from the Greek criterion - a measure for evaluating something. This term in the TPR denotes a significant, understandable decision maker, a well-interpreted and measurable characteristic operation results.

The scope of the criterion is a set of alternatives. The choice of criterion is a whole science and at the same time an art. For economic transactions, for example, such criteria as: "Efficiency", "Time", "Costs", "Losses" are suitable. The values ​​reflect in the minds of decision makers the degree of preference for alternatives.

From a philosophical standpoint, the criterion and evaluation of the criterion is one of the manifestations of the categories of quality and quantity. Quality as a set of properties that separate one object from another, inseparable from the object. Quantity same can be studied separately not tied to a specific object.

Measurement is the process of assigning such symbols to objects so that, by comparing the symbols by their values, it is possible to draw conclusions about the properties of the objects' relations with each other. If some alternative is preferable to another, then its assessment according to the selected criterion should take on a more acceptable value. Having chosen the alternative with the best criterion evaluation value, the decision maker will thereby choose the “best alternative” (28):

where a and b are alternatives;

W - evaluation (value) of the criterion;

u(W) - utility function;

W(a) And W(b) - the values ​​of the evaluations of the criterion for the alternatives;

u(W(a)) And u(W(b)) - function levels u(W) usefulness for the decision maker of the obtained values ​​of estimates W(a) And W(b) respectively

<=>- a sign of double implication (“if and only then”, “necessary and sufficient”);

¶≈> - a symbol that means a non-strict superiority of alternatives (it reads “no worse than...”, “no less preferable than...”).

If some alternative is not worse than some other, then the estimated utility for it should be no lower than for the less preferred one. We will definitely assume that the opposite is always true.

The verbal rule for choosing the “best alternative” and relation (28) also implies the formal rule (29), which defines the description of the “best alternative” a*:

, (29)

where A is the set of alternatives.

The criterion is needed by the decision maker, as it helps him personally make sure that the chosen solution is effective, gives the decision maker the opportunity to delegate powers to performers, organize and conduct effective control over the operation. Performers need a criterion in order to effectively act in accordance with the principle of inconclusiveness and freedom of acceptancedecisions, when the decision maker grants him the right to act proactively and independently within the framework of delegated powers.

The form of the criterion is chosen on the basis of Occam's principle: "Do not multiply entities unnecessarily."

A variety of scales have been developed and are widely used to measure the values ​​of criteria. quality scales. If the purpose of the measurement is to divide objects into classes according to a given attribute (for example, “suitable” - “not suitable”), then the so-called nominal, or classification scales.

If the purpose of the measurement is to arrange objects of the same class in accordance with the intensity of the manifestation of some one common property in them, then the most expressive and economical will be ranking scale. For example, if the first value in an ordered series is assigned a rank equal to 1, the second - equal to 2, etc., then we get the so-called direct rank scale. Ranking is also possible reverse ranking scales, where the more preferred object is given a higher rather than a lower rank.

If the decision maker needs to get an idea of ​​how much or how many times the value achievable for alternatives is higher (or lower), they use quantitative scales. This interval scale, ratio scale and absolute (allows only identical transformations on its values).

Intermediate position is occupied numerical scoring scale .

7 Selection function

The choice function in decision theory is of fundamental importance. It is precisely on its construction that the solution of the problems of forming the initial set of alternatives, analyzing the conditions for conducting the operation, identifying and measuring the preferences of the decision maker is ultimately oriented.

According to the formal definition adopted in the TPR, selection function is a formula of the form (30):

, (30)

Where D – some (initial) set;

D° - subset ( D° D), having known or given properties.

The specific form of the choice function that implements the mapping (30) depends on what the “mechanism of the situation” is (Figure 2.9).

Figure 2.9 - Forms for constructing a selection function

Selection function by scalar criterion will look like this:

, (31)

where extr φ(х) is the extremum of the given scalar function φ(х) of the vector argument х.

Among such problematic situations in management practice, there are often following tasks decision making:

Drawing up an optimal plan for the transportation of material resources;

Determination of the shortest routes on a given transport network;

Making decisions about optimal loading Vehicle cargo;

Making decisions on the appointment of performers to perform the work of some integral program or project, etc.

As a rule, all the listed problems are problems of discrete mathematical programming.

In tasks with vector criterion it is impossible to say with absolute certainty that a particular solution is really optimal. One of the solutions may be superior to the other in some criteria and inferior in other (other) criteria.

Difficulties in Formalizing the Choice Function:

Description of elements A sets A alternatives as functions of some of their characteristics X, and the boundaries of the set - in the form of a system of equalities h(x)=0 and/or inequalities q(x)≤0, where are the features x;

Setting in an explicit formal form the dependencies of the result values y(a) or criteria W(a) from characteristics x, formally describing alternatives;

Formal description of the type of utility function u(a) on alternatives in the form of some function φ(x) their characteristics X;

Interpretation of the formal extremum X* to present the decision maker as the best alternative A*.

Decision-making technology should be understood as the composition and sequence of procedures and actions that lead to solving the problems of the organization, in combination with methods for developing and optimizing alternatives.

For a leader, decision making is not an end in itself. The main concern of a manager is not the choice of an alternative itself, but the resolution of a certain managerial problem. This very often requires not a single decision, but a certain sequence of decisions, and, most importantly, their implementation, the achievement of the goal. Therefore, a decision is not a one-time act, but the result of a process that develops over time and has a certain structure. Based on the foregoing, we can give the following definition of this process.

The decision-making process is a cyclic sequence of actions of the subject of management aimed at resolving the problems of the organization, which consists in analyzing the situation, generating alternatives, making a decision and organizing its implementation.

Let us now consider the main stages of the decision-making process (DPR).

Analysis of the situation. For the need to make a management decision, a signal is needed about an external or internal influence that has caused or is capable of causing a deviation from the specified mode of the system's functioning, i.e. presence of a managerial situation. Therefore, one of the most important conditions for making the right decision is to analyze the situation.

Analysis of the management situation requires the collection and processing of information. This stage performs the function of the organization's perception of the external and internal environment.

Data on the state of the main environmental factors and the state of affairs in the organization are received by managers and specialists who classify, analyze information and compare the actual values ​​of controlled parameters with planned or predicted ones, which, in turn, allows them to identify problems that should be solved.

Problem identification. The first step towards solving a problem is its definition or diagnosis, complete and correct. As they say, to formulate a problem correctly means to half solve it. There are two views on the essence of the problem:

• 1. A problem is a situation when the set goals are not achieved, or there is a deviation of the parameters from a given level.
• 2. The problem should be seen as a potential opportunity to improve efficiency.

Combining both of these approaches, we will understand the problem of discrepancy between the desired and real states of the managed object.

Identification and formulation of the problem is a complex procedure, since at the time of their appearance, many of the most important problems are poorly structured, i.e. do not have quantitative certainty, do not contain obvious goals, alternative ways to achieve them, ideas about the costs and effects associated with each of the options. Structuring the problem (bringing the problem to a quantitative definition of the main parameters) requires from managers not only knowledge and experience, but also talent, intuition, and creativity.

Diagnosing a complex problem in an organization begins with identifying its symptoms. Identifying symptoms helps to identify the problem in a general way. Common symptoms of a deterioration in the state of an organization and the emergence of problems are: a decrease in profit indicators, sales volume, labor productivity, quality of goods and services, an increase in costs, staff turnover, a level of marriage, numerous conflicts, etc.

Once symptoms are identified, managers should investigate the underlying causes of the problem and not rush to address only its external symptoms. We must not forget that all elements and activities in the organization are interconnected, and the solution of any problem in one part of the organization can cause problems in others. Therefore, when defining the problem to be solved, one should strive to ensure that the number of newly emerging problems is minimal.

Definition of selection criteria. Before considering possible solutions to the problem that has arisen, the manager needs to determine the indicators by which alternatives will be compared and the best one chosen. These indicators are called selection criteria. The criterion for evaluating the effectiveness of a solution should have a quantitative expression or a physical meaning, reflect the results of decisions to the fullest extent, and be simple and specific. Right choice performance criteria, according to experts, is equivalent to the correct formulation of the problem, since it often helps to determine the direction of solving the problem.

The criterion can be the minimum or maximum value of such indicators as costs, labor productivity, equipment use, production assets. There are many qualitative performance criteria: qualitative composition personnel, the authority of the head, product quality. As a criterion, there may be one or more private indicators that are linked to each other and correspond to a system-wide criterion.

Development of alternatives. The next stage is the development of a set alternative solutions Problems. It begins already when the formulation of the problem is refined and when the criterion for evaluating efficiency is chosen. The concept of alternative is very broad: objects, relations or actions can act as an alternative.

At the level of logic and intuition, the usefulness of individual options, the complexity of the implementation of others are preliminarily assessed, and among them options are selected, the possibility of which there is no doubt. Usually there are from three to seven such options, since in practice the manager does not have (and cannot have) such stocks of knowledge, time and money to formulate and evaluate each possible alternative.

Managers are well aware that the search for the optimal solution is very difficult, time consuming and expensive, so they are looking not for the optimal, but for a good enough, acceptable option that allows them to solve the problem. The selection criteria defined at the previous stage help to cut off unsuitable alternatives in advance.

Often there are situations in which the problem being solved has not been encountered before, i.e. possible alternatives are unknown, and they must first be formulated. In such cases, it is useful to use collective discussion of the problem and the generation of alternatives.

Choosing an alternative carried out using various methods. Possible solutions to the problem are evaluated, i.e. the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative are compared, and the probable results of their implementation are objectively determined. To compare the solution options, the selected efficiency criteria established at the third stage of the algorithm are used. With their help, the choice of the best alternative is made.

Since the choice is made, as a rule, on the basis of several, and not one criterion, it always has the character of a compromise. In addition, when evaluating possible solutions, the manager actually deals with predictive estimates of the compared values, and they are always probabilistic. Therefore, it is also important to take into account the risk factor, i.e. determine the likelihood of each alternative being implemented. Taking into account the risk factor leads to a revision of the very concept of the best solution: it is not the option that maximizes or minimizes a certain indicator, but the one that ensures its achievement with the highest degree of probability.

Decision approval. In modern management systems, as a result of the division of labor, a situation has developed in which some employees of the organization prepare and develop a decision, others accept or approve, and still others carry out. In other words, the manager often approves and is responsible for a solution that he did not develop; the specialists who prepared and analyzed the decision do not participate in its implementation, and the performers do not take part in the preparation and discussion of the decisions being prepared.

Management decision-making in an organization is often mistakenly viewed as an individual rather than a group process. Meanwhile, although the main stages of PPR by organizations and individuals coincide, the formation of decisions in the organization, as previously noted, differs from individual decision-making. It is the organization, and not the individual leader, who must respond to emerging problems, and not one leader, but all members of the organization must strive to improve the efficiency of its work. In order for the decision taken by the leader to be implemented, joint actions of all members of the organization are necessary. Therefore, in group decision-making processes, the coordination stage plays an important role.

Recognition of a solution is rarely automatic, even if it is clearly a good one. Therefore, the leader must convince the correctness of his point of view, prove to employees that his decision brings benefits to both the organization and its individual members. Practice shows that the likelihood of a quick and effective implementation of a decision increases significantly when the performers have the opportunity to express their opinion on the decision being made, make suggestions, comments, etc. Then decision perceived as "one's own" and not imposed "from above". That's why The best way agreement on the decision is to involve employees in the process of its adoption. Of course, this method should not be absolutized: there are situations when it is impossible or irrational and the manager is forced to make a decision on his own, without resorting to discussions and approvals, but we must remember that the systematic ignoring of the opinions of subordinates leads to an authoritarian leadership style.

Implementation management. The process of solving a problem does not end with the choice of an alternative: to obtain a real effect, the decision made must be implemented. This is what is main task of this stage.

For the successful implementation of the solution, it is necessary to determine a set of works and resources, distribute them by performers and deadlines, i.e., provide for who, where, when and what actions should be taken, what resources are needed for this. If we are talking about sufficiently large solutions, this may require the development of a program to implement the solution. During the implementation of this plan, the leader should monitor how the decision is being implemented, and if necessary, provide assistance and make certain adjustments.

Monitoring and evaluation of results. Even after the decision is finally put into action, the decision-making process cannot be considered completely completed, since it is still necessary to verify whether it justifies itself. This goal is served by the control stage, which performs the function in this process. feedback. At this stage, the consequences of the decision are measured and evaluated, or the actual results are compared with those that the manager hoped to receive.

It should not be forgotten that the solution is always temporary. The term of its effective action can be considered equal to the period of relative constancy of the problem situation. Beyond its limits, the solution may cease to have an effect and even turn into its opposite - not contribute to solving the problem, but exacerbate it. You can take a lot of reasonable and useful decisions, but without a rationally organized system for monitoring the execution, they will remain in the "bowels of office work" and will not give the expected effect.

INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS

Faculty of World Economy and International Trade

ABSTRACT
by discipline:
"Development of management decisions"

on the topic "Technology of development
and making managerial decisions.
The main procedures of this process»

Completed by a 3rd year student

correspondence department

Tsoi E.L.

Moscow
2009

1. Introduction. 3

2. Classification of management decisions 4

3. The process of developing management decisions 6

4. Making managerial decisions 8

5. Conclusion 10

5. List of used literature 11

1. INTRODUCTION

Each person makes decisions of different significance. Some of them are less important - for example, the choice of mode of transport when traveling around the city. Others are much more important - for example, the choice future profession. However, in both cases, the consequences of the decision taken concern only directly the person who made the decision. this decision. Nevertheless, it is clear that in this case, the adoption of effective decisions is a very urgent task. Even more significant is the increase in the efficiency of making such decisions, the consequences of which concern a large number of people, large organizations. Such organizational decisions are made by managers.
The initial stage of decision-making is associated with the analysis of the situation and the discovery of a problem that needs to be solved. At this stage, it is necessary to determine whether intervention in the organizational process is required. After that, you should start looking for the most optimal solution of all possible.
Decision making is a conscious choice among the available options or alternatives of the course of action that bridges the gap between the present and future desired state of the organization. Thus, this process includes many different elements, but certainly there are elements such as problems, goals, and all alternative solutions to the existing problem.
Making a managerial decision is a choice of how and what to plan, organize, motivate and control.
Decision making is an important part of any managerial activity. Figuratively speaking, decision-making can be called the "center" around which the life of the organization revolves.

2. CLASSIFICATION OF MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

In terms of their significance, management decisions can be strategic, tactical or operational.
Strategic decisions. Such decisions usually deal with the root problems. They are accepted on the scale of the control object and above, designed for a long period of time, for solving promising problems.
Strategic goals are goals that involve solving large-scale problems and apply to the company as a whole.
Strategic decisions are the most important decisions. They are particularly significant for competitiveness and have high cost implications. Such decisions are associated with significant transformations of the organization (change of technology, change of goals, renewal of personnel).
tactical decisions. Such decisions, as a rule, ensure the implementation of strategic objectives. In time, they do not exceed one year.
Tactical goals are tasks that provide for the solution of particular problems, outlined by middle managers and describe the steps that the strategic goals of the organization require.
operational solutions. Such decisions are related to the implementation of current goals and objectives. In terms of time, they are calculated for a period not
According to the sphere of influence, management decisions can be global and local, and according to the duration of the impact - short-term and long-term.
Most management decisions in the process of their implementation, one way or another, can be adjusted in order to eliminate any deviations or take into account new factors, i.e. are correctable. At the same time, there are solutions, the consequences of which are irreversible, i.e. uncorrectable.





3. PROCESS OF DEVELOPMENT OF MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

The result of the manager's work is a managerial decision. The whole activity of the organization depends on what this decision will be, and it generally depends on whether the goal will be achieved or not. Therefore, the adoption of a decision by a manager is always associated with risk and presents certain difficulties. This is due both to the responsibility that the manager takes on and to the uncertainty that is present when choosing one of the alternatives.
Most of the problems that occur in the work of a manager are not so often repeated, and therefore their solution is also a kind of problem - a problem of choice, which is not always easy to make.
A decision is a choice of one of the alternatives that are available to solve a problem.
In turn, a problem is a situation that is an obstacle to achieving the goals set by the organization. If life were monotonous and predictable, then there would be no problems and no decisions would have to be made to overcome them. But one cannot immediately predict how things will turn out in further development one or another branch of production, science, etc., what situation will arise in the process of development, therefore, in the planning process, it is impossible to take into account all the deviations of the desired situation from the actual one. As a result of these deviations, problems arise. Making ineffective decisions is often the result of a lack of skills to think logically. It is essential to approach decision making as a rational process. It is the presence of a rational choice that distinguishes the development of an enterprise from the development of a biological organism. The goal of decision-making is to make the best choice among several available options in order to achieve a certain result.
There are many approaches to the allocation of various stages and stages of decision-making processes. Most of the disagreement arises on the issue of including in the process the stage associated with the implementation of the decision. In many foreign sources, the entire decision-making process in an organization is viewed as a function of the problem, alternatives, and implementation of the solution.
Any management decision goes through three stages:

1. Clarification of the problem.

- collection of information;

- clarification of relevance;

- definition of conditions under which this problem will be solved.

2. Drawing up a solution plan.

- development of alternative solutions;

- comparison of solution options with available resources;

- assessment of alternative options for social consequences;

- evaluation of alternative options for economic efficiency;

- drawing up solution programs;

- development and compilation detailed plan solutions.

3. Implementation of the decision.

- bringing decisions to specific executors;

- development of incentives and punishments;

- control over the implementation of decisions.

4. MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING

So far, decision making has been viewed as a rational process, i.e. as a series of stages and stages through which the manager must go from beginning to end in order to reach the full implementation of the solution and the elimination of the problem. In real life, this is not entirely true, because there are a number of "real world" limitations that prevent the use of a rational model in the decision-making process:

often managers are unaware that a problem exists. They are either overloaded or the problem is well hidden from them;
it is not possible to collect all available information on this issue for technical or cost reasons;
time constraints force us to consider not all alternatives and make not the best decisions;
in many cases, when evaluating and choosing an alternative, it is difficult to take into account qualitative factors when fundamentally new tasks arise that require new solutions and a different methodology;

From the point of view of the use of decision-making methods, three groups can be distinguished:
- Intuitive decisions are based on the manager's subjective feelings that the given decision is correct.

- decisions based on one's own and other people's experience are conditioned by the knowledge and experience of the manager, the presence of similar situations in the past.

- rational decisions are made regardless of past experience as a result of an objective analytical decision-making process.
The decision-making process, taking into account the results of the analysis of the existing state, needs and opportunities, as well as taking into account the main requirements for the quality of the decision, is divided into the following stages:
1) identification and formulation of an existing or potential contradiction (problem);

2) development (clarification, concretization) of the criterion for the optimality of the solution;

3) development of solutions;

4) evaluation of individual options in accordance with the developed criterion, and, if necessary, "playing" the selected solutions;

5) formulation and adoption of the selected management decision.

4. CONCLUSION

Since decisions are made by specific people, their character largely bears the imprint of the personality of the manager involved in their birth. In this regard, it is customary to distinguish between balanced, impulsive, inert, risky and cautious decisions.
Balanced decisions are made by managers who are attentive and critical of their actions, put forward hypotheses and their testing. Usually, before starting to make a decision, they formulate the initial idea.
Impulsive decisions, the authors of which easily generate a wide variety of ideas in unlimited quantities, but are not able to properly verify, clarify, and evaluate them. Decisions therefore turn out to be insufficiently substantiated and reliable; In some cases, even balanced managers are forced to make impulsive decisions under force majeure circumstances.
Inert solutions are the result of a careful search. In them, on the contrary, control and clarifying actions prevail over the generation of ideas, so it is difficult to detect originality, brilliance, and innovation in such decisions.
Risky decisions differ from impulsive ones in that their authors do not need to carefully substantiate their hypotheses and, if they are confident in themselves, may not be afraid of any dangers.
Cautious decisions are characterized by the thoroughness of the manager's assessment of all options, a supercritical approach to business. They are even less than inert ones, they are distinguished by novelty and originality.
The listed types of decisions are made mainly in the process of operational personnel management. For strategic and tactical control any subsystem of the management system makes rational decisions based on the methods of economic analysis, justification and optimization.

5. LIST OF USED LITERATURE

1. V.A. Dmitriev. Management of socio-economic organization. Moscow, 2008.

2. A.M. Chuikin. Development of management decisions: a tutorial. Kaliningrad, 2000.

etc.................

INTRODUCTION

1. 1. Information support of the process of development of management decisions. Types of information technology

2. Analysis and management decision making .

.

2. 2. Analysis and management decision-making under risk.

CONCLUSION

INTRODUCTION

In conditions market economy degree of uncertainty economic behavior market participants is quite high. In this regard, a great practical value acquire methods of prospective analysis when it is necessary to make managerial decisions, evaluating possible situations and making a choice from several alternative options.

Theoretically, there are four types of situations in which it is necessary to analyze and make management decisions, including at the enterprise level: under conditions of certainty, risk, uncertainty, conflict. Let's consider each of these cases.

1. Technology for the development and implementation of management decisions

Management decisions is the result of a specific management activity of the manager. Decision making is the basis of management. Development and decision-making is a creative process in the activities of a leader at any level, including:

• development and goal setting;
• study of the problem based on the information received;
• selection and justification of criteria for efficiency (effectiveness) and possible consequences of the decision;
• discussion with specialists of various options for solving the problem (task);
• selection and formulation of the optimal solution;
• making decisions;
• Concretization of the decision for its executors.

Management technology considers the adoption of managerial decisions as a process consisting of three stages: decision preparation, decision making, decision implementation.

At the stage of preparation of managerial decisions, an economic analysis of the situation is carried out at the micro- and macro levels, including the search, collection and processing of information, as well as problems that need to be addressed are identified and formulated.

At the stage of decision-making, the development and evaluation of alternative solutions and courses of action, carried out on the basis of multivariate calculations; selection of criteria for choosing the optimal solution; choosing and making the best decision.

At the stage of implementation of the decision, measures are taken to specify the decision and bring it to the executors, control over the progress of its implementation is carried out; the necessary adjustments are made and an assessment of the result obtained from the implementation of the decision is given. Each management decision has its own specific result, so the goal of management activity is to find such forms, methods, means and tools that could help achieve the optimal result in specific conditions and circumstances.

Management decisions can be justified, made on the basis of economic analysis and multivariate calculation, and intuitive, which, although they save time, but contain the possibility of errors and uncertainty.

Decisions made should be based on reliable, current and predictable information, analysis of all factors influencing the decision, taking into account the foreseeing of its possible consequences.

Managers are obliged to constantly and comprehensively study incoming information in order to prepare and make management decisions based on it, which must be coordinated at all levels of the intra-company hierarchical management pyramid.

The amount of information that needs to be processed to develop effective management decisions is so great that it has long exceeded human capabilities. It is the difficulties of managing modern large-scale production that have led to the widespread use of electronic computers, the development of automated control systems, which required the creation of a new mathematical apparatus and economic and mathematical methods.

1. Information support of the process of development of management decisions.

Information(from Latin Informatio - clarification, presentation) - alienated knowledge expressed in a certain language in the form of alphabetic characters, recorded on a tangible medium, available for reproduction without the participation of the author and transferred to public communication channels (published).

In modern conditions, an important area has become Information Support, which consists in the collection and processing of information necessary for making sound management decisions. Transfer of information about the position and activities of the company to highest level management and mutual exchange of information between all interconnected divisions of the company is carried out on the basis of modern electronic computers and other technical means of communication.

In activity large firms, especially those with many branches in far-flung places, the transfer of information is an indispensable and paramount factor in the normal functioning of the company. At the same time, ensuring the efficiency and reliability of information is of particular importance. For many firms, the in-house information system solves the problems of the organization technological process and is industrial. This is where information plays important role in providing information for making managerial decisions and is one of the factors that reduce production costs and increase its efficiency. Forecasting market processes plays a special role. Of great importance is information about the occurrence in the course of production of deviations from the planned indicators required by the adopted operational decisions.

Information serves as the basis for the preparation of relevant reports, reports, proposals for the development and adoption of management decisions.

• brevity, clarity of wording, timeliness of receipt;
• meeting the needs of specific managers;
• accuracy and reliability, the correct selection of primary information, the optimal systematization and the continuity of the collection and processing of information.

To adequately represent the situation, as a rule, not only quantitative data are used, but also qualitative data. This is achieved with the help of expert technologies widely used in decision-making processes.

The information received about the decision-making situation must be reliable and sufficiently complete. Inaccurate or insufficiently complete information can lead to erroneous and inefficient decisions. However, no less difficulties arise in the presence of redundant information, since the problem of selecting information that is really of interest and important for the timely adoption of an effective managerial decision arises.

When obtaining and processing information about the situation, decision-making is advisable to prepare analytical material that reflects the main features and trends in the development of the situation. Naturally, such analytical material should be prepared by specialists with sufficient knowledge and experience in the field to which the decision-making situation belongs.

1.3. Types of information technology

When organizing the collection and registration of data on the principle of sequential decisions, different kinds information technology:

• collection and registration of data directly in the production process (at cost centers) in the form of a single document and the use of a central computer for data aggregation; data processing in the dialogue mode for calculating indicators on the terminal;
• obtaining a free document, using a machine-readable information carrier (for example, floppy disks), processing data on the production department on personal computers.

Solving the issues of introducing new technologies requires an integrated, versatile approach. It is important not only to investigate the technical, economic and organizational aspects of the problem, but also to take into account the impact of the introduction of new technologies on the position of the worker in the production process. In particular, it is necessary to analyze labor functions employee, his mode of action, skills, abilities, working conditions. It is very difficult to assess labor and socio-economic factors.

The technology of information activity involves: the creation of a system of records (digital and textual information) using means computer technology; use of forms as information carriers; database formation; creation of application packages.

1.4. Preparation of decision making in management AIS

Today's businesses require more and more agility. During a period of rapid market change, shorter cycle times for products and services, volatility consumer demand the fundamental nature of the information base for decision-making and control over their implementation is important. Traditional paper media serve as a clear barrier to the introduction of advanced management technologies. In this regard, the use of modern methods of collection, processing. Storing and presenting information for management decisions is one of the most important levers for business development.

1. Analysis and management decision making .

2. 1. Analysis and management decision-making under conditions of certainty .

This is the simplest case: the number of possible situations (options) and their outcomes are known. You must select one of the available options. The degree of complexity of the selection procedure in this case is determined only by the number of alternative options. Let's consider two possible situations:

a) There are two possible options;

In this case, the analyst must choose (or recommend to choose) one of two possible options. The sequence of actions here is as follows:

• the criterion by which the choice will be made is determined;
• the method of “direct counting” calculates the values ​​of the criterion for the compared options;
• the option with the best value of the criterion is recommended for selection.

There are various methods for solving this problem. As a rule, they are divided into two groups:

methods based on discounted estimates;

methods based on accounting estimates.

The first group of methods is based on the following idea. Cash income coming to the enterprise at different points in time should not be summed up directly; only the elements of the reduced flow can be summed. If we designate F1,F2 ,....,Fn as the predicted discount factor for the discounted cash flow by years, then i-th element given cash flow Pi is calculated by the formula:

Pi = Fi / (1+ r) i

where r is the discount factor.

The purpose of the discount factor is the temporal ordering of future cash receipts (income) and bringing them to the current point in time. economic sense of this representation in the following: the significance of the predicted value of cash receipts in i years (Fi) from the position current moment will be less than or equal to Pi . This also means that for the investor, the amount Pi at a given point in time and the amount Fi in i years are the same in value. Using this formula, it is possible to bring into a comparable form an estimate of future income expected to be received over a number of years. In this case, the discount factor is numerically equal to the interest rate set by the investor, i.e. the relative amount of return that an investor wants or can receive on the capital he invests.

So, the sequence of actions of the analyst is as follows (calculations are performed for each alternative):

• the amount of required investment is calculated ( expert review), IC;
• estimated profit (cash receipts) by years Fi;
• the value of the discount factor, r, is set;
• the elements of the reduced flow, Pi are determined;
• net present effect (NPV) is calculated using the formula:

NPV= E Pi - IC

• NPV values ​​are compared;
• preference is given to the option that has a larger NPV (a negative NPV value indicates the economic inexpediency this option) .

The second group of methods continues to use predictive values ​​of F in calculations. One of the most simple methods this group - the calculation of the payback period of the investment. The sequence of actions of the analyst in this case is as follows:

• the value of the required investments, IC , is calculated;
• estimated profit (cash receipts) by years, Fi ;
• the option is chosen, the cumulative profit on which in a smaller number of years will pay off the investments made.

b) The number of alternatives is more than two.

The procedural side of the analysis becomes much more complicated due to the multiplicity of options; the “direct counting” technique is practically not applicable in this case. The most convenient computing apparatus is the methods of optimal programming (in this case, this term means “planning”). There are many of these methods (linear, non-linear, dynamic, etc.), but in practice in economic research only linear programming has gained relative popularity. In particular, consider the transport problem as an example of choosing the optimal option from a set of alternative ones. The essence of the problem is as follows.

There are n points of production of some products (a1,a2,...,an) and k points of its consumption (b1,b2,....,bk), where ai is the volume of output of the i -th point of production, bj is the volume consumption of the j -th point of consumption. We consider the simplest, so-called “closed problem”, when the total volumes of production and consumption are equal. Let cij be the cost of transporting a unit of production. It is required to find the most rational scheme for attaching suppliers to consumers, minimizing the total costs of transporting products. Obviously, the number of alternative options here can be very large, which excludes the use of the “direct count” method. So we need to solve the following problem:

E E Cg Xg -> min

E Xg = bj E Xg = bj Xg >= 0

Various methods of solving this problem are known - the distributive method of potentials, etc. As a rule, a computer is used for calculations.

When conducting analysis under conditions of certainty, computer simulation methods that involve multiple computer calculations can be successfully applied. In this case, a simulation model of an object or process is built ( computer program) containing the b-th number of factors and variables whose values ​​vary in different combinations. Thus, machine simulation is an experiment, but not in real, but in artificial conditions. Based on the results of this experiment, one or more options are selected that are basic for making a final decision based on additional formal and informal criteria.

2. 2. Analysis and adoption of management

decisions under risk.

This situation occurs most frequently in practice. Here they use a probabilistic approach, which involves predicting possible outcomes and assigning probabilities to them. In doing so, they use:

a) known, typical situations (such as - the probability of the coat of arms appearing when tossing a coin is 0.5);

b) previous probability distributions (for example, the probability of a defective part is known from sample surveys or statistics from previous periods);

c) subjective assessments made by the analyst alone or with the involvement of a group of experts.

The sequence of actions of the analyst in this case is as follows:

• possible outcomes are predicted Ak , k = 1 ,2 ,....., n;
• each outcome is assigned a corresponding probability pk , and

E pk = 1

• a criterion is selected (for example, maximizing the mathematical expectation of profit);
• the option that satisfies the selected criterion is selected.

Example: there are two investment objects with the same forecast amount of required capital investments. The value of the planned income in each case is not certain and is given in the form of a probability distribution:

Project A		Project B
	Probability		Probability

Then the mathematical expectation of income for the projects under consideration will be respectively equal to:

Y (Yes) = 0 . 10 * 3000 + ......+ 0 . 10 * 5000 = 4000

Y (db) \u003d 0. 10 * 2000 +.......+ 0 . 10 * 8000 = 4250

Thus project B is more preferable. However, it should be noted that this project is also relatively more risky, since it has a greater variation compared to project A (range of variation of project A - 2000, project B - 6000) .

In more complex situations, the so-called decision tree construction method is used in the analysis. Let's look at the logic of this method using an example.

Example: the manager needs to make a decision on the advisability of purchasing a machine M1 or machine M2. The M2 machine is more economical, which provides a higher income per unit of production, however, it is more expensive and requires relatively large overhead costs:

	fixed costs	Operating income per unit of output
Machine M1
Machine M2

The decision-making process can be carried out in several stages:

Stage 1 . Goal definition.

As a criterion, the maximization of the mathematical expectation of profit is chosen.

Stage 2. Determination of a set of possible actions for consideration and analysis (controlled by the decision maker)

The manager can choose one of two options:

a1 = (purchase of machine M1)

a2 = (purchase of machine M2)

Stage 3 . Evaluation of possible outcomes and their probabilities (are random).

The manager evaluates possible options for annual demand for products and their corresponding probabilities as follows:

x1 = 1200 units with a probability of 0. 4

x2 = 2000 units with a probability of 0. 6

Stage 4 . Estimation of the mathematical expectation of possible income:

1200 20 * 1200 - 15000 = 9000

0.6 2000 20 * 2000 - 15000 = 25000

1200 24 * 1200 - 21000 = 7800

М2 0.6 2000 24 * 2000 - 21000 = 27000

E (Yes) = 9000 * 0. 4 + 25000 * 0 . 6 = 18600

E (db) \u003d 7800 * 0. 4 + 27000 * 0 . 6 = 19320

Thus, the option with the purchase of the M2 machine is more economically feasible.

2.3. Analysis and adoption of managerial decisions under conditions of uncertainty.

This situation has been developed in theory, but formalized analysis algorithms are rarely used in practice. The main difficulty here is that it is impossible to estimate the probabilities of outcomes. The main criterion - profit maximization - does not work here, so other criteria are used:

• maximin (minimum profit maximization)
• minimax (minimization of maximum losses)
• maximax (maximization of maximum profit), etc.

2.4. Analysis and management decision-making in a conflict.

The most complex and little developed analysis from a practical point of view. Similar situations are considered in game theory. Of course, in practice, this and the previous situations are quite common. In such cases, they are trying to reduce them to one of the first two situations, or use non-formalized methods to make a decision.

Estimates obtained as a result of applying formalized methods are only the basis for making a final decision; in this case, additional criteria, including those of an informal nature, may be taken into account.

CONCLUSION

Based on all of the above, we can draw the following conclusion: the problem posed, that is, providing the decision-making process with information that meets all the requirements, is completely solvable. Currently, this problem is being solved by using modern electronic computers, creating various databases, expert systems and decision-making preparation systems. Such methods make it quite simple, and most importantly, quickly collect, process and analyze existing information. They also make it possible to significantly facilitate the decision-making process for managers at all levels. The implementation of the systems described above requires quite large investments, but they undoubtedly pay off with interest. Along with all the advantages, this solution to the problem has its drawbacks. One of these disadvantages is the need for managers to gain new knowledge in order to use the proposed tools most effectively, which is quite time consuming. On the other hand, the full automation of the decision-making process gives rise to many social problems, in particular, it leads to a reduction in the time spent communicating with other people. And this, from the point of view of psychology, has a bad effect on the psychological state of a person and reduces his desire to work in such a mode, and, consequently, to a decrease in work efficiency.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Gerchikova I.N. Management. Textbook - M.: Contact, - 1994
2. Informatization of management systems and decision-making in business: social and methodological aspects. M.: 1994
3. Litvak B.G. Management decisions
4. Karminsky A.M., Nesterov P.V. Business informatization. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1997
5. Oikhman E.G., Popov E.V. Business reengineering: reengineering the organization and information Technology. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1997
6. Fatkhutdinov R.A. Development of a management decision: A textbook for universities. - 2nd ed., add. - M .: CJSC "Business - school" Intel - Synthesis ", 1998. - 272s.