The Club of Rome was created under the leadership of. What is the Club of Rome? International public organization (analytical centre): history of creation, tasks, members of the club

In the spring of 1968, Aurelio Peccei, an Italian economist, businessman, member of the management of the Fiat company and vice president of the Olivetti company, sent out invitations to 30 prominent European scientists and representatives of the business world to participate in the discussion of topical problems of our time. At the beginning of April of the same year, in Rome, in the old National Academy dei Lincei, a meeting of invitees was held, at which views were exchanged on the global problems of our time. The meeting participants, who supported the idea of ​​creating a non-traditional international organization, then gathered for a discussion, during which the goals and structure of the new organization, called the Club of Rome, were determined.

At the suggestion of A. Peccei, it was considered expedient to limit the size of the Club of Rome to 100 people in order to avoid difficulties that could arise in the process of interaction between its members with a larger membership. The organization assumed the status of a non-governmental organization, not associated with political parties and existing forms of ideology. Its members do not represent the interests of any country or group. Management, organizational and coordinating activities between annual meetings members of the club are entrusted to the president and the executive committee, which later, in 1990, was renamed the council. These organizational principles formed the basis of the theoretical and practical activities Club of Rome, legally registered in one of the cantons of Switzerland.

During the first two years, the Club of Rome established contacts and promoted its plans in order to involve scientists, public figures, businessmen, and politicians from various countries of the world in the implementation of their plans. The club planned to conduct research on global problems, based on the following goals. First, he sought to help people become more fully and deeply aware of the difficulties and problems of a global nature facing humanity. Secondly, he intended to use all available knowledge to establish new relations between states, political courses and legal institutions that would contribute to the elimination of crisis situations in the world.

At that time, the plans of the Roman YouTube did not meet with a wide response and support from the world community. A turning point was outlined at the end of 1969, when, at the invitation of the Austrian Chancellor, representatives of the Club of Rome met in Vienna for the first time, together with political leaders a number of Western European countries. The dialogue that took place served as an impetus for the activation of YouTube.

However, the study of the identified problems was hampered due to the lack of tools to identify the dynamics of global processes in the world. Therefore, the Roman YouTube turned to mathematical models that allow you to make calculations regarding the consideration of various relationships between certain trends in world development.

One of the first was a project proposed by the cybernetic scientist and philosopher X. Ozbekhan, based on the systematic use of mathematical models. It was an attempt at computer modeling, which was supposed to study the behavior of the global system, and in the future to determine specific measures, including political actions, necessary to resolve global crisis situations.

The project of X. Ozbekhan included the construction of a model of the world, taking into account the possibility of considering alternative political solutions. At the same time, a task of this kind turned out to be so complicated that its practical implementation required significant material resources and long-term work. This did not suit the leadership of the Club of Rome, which sought to obtain as soon as possible results that give a visual representation of the state of the global system and the main trends in world development.

Having parted with the idea of ​​implementing the project of X. Ozbekhan, Rimsky YouTube turned to the American specialist in the field of system dynamics J. Forrester, who proposed in the summer of 1970 to develop a model that simulates the development of world processes. A few months later, J. Forrester created the Mir-1 model, which provides for system analysis dynamics of variables such as population, capital investment, non-renewable natural resources, pollution and food. Then, after some improvements, he built the World-2 model, which was demonstrated to members of the Club of Rome and actually served as an impetus for the emergence of a new direction of research - global modeling, designed to identify and analyze trends in world development.

The analysis of the global system using a computer model was carried out at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (USA) by a group of young scientists, which, on the recommendation of J. Forrester, was headed by his assistant, at that time little known D. Meadows. Having slightly changed the Forrester model, a group of scientists created a computer model "Mir-3", with the help of which the trends in the development of the world were considered. The results of this study were published in the United States in March 1972 in the form of the first report to the Club of Rome called "The Limits to Growth", which later became a kind of "bible" for many globalists who showed an interest in modeling world development. Even before publication, the handwritten version of the report was submitted for public discussion, which predetermined the rapid reaction of scientists to this research project, carried out within the framework of the program outlined by the Club of Rome, and marking the completion of the first stage in the development of this organization.

Using the Mir-3 model, the behavior of the global system was studied in a time interval of 200 years - from 1900 to 2100. The starting point of the analysis was the assumption that the change in the main variables of the system, including the state of industry, agriculture, population, non-renewable natural resources and environmental pollution, occurs within the framework of existing trends in the development of mankind. Computer calculations have shown that in this case a global crisis is inevitable, since the growth industrial production and population comes into conflict with limited natural resources and increasing environmental pollution, detrimental to human health.

The model experiment involved alternately assuming the possibility of slowing down population growth and environmental pollution, increasing agricultural productivity and conserving natural resources. However, the calculations made on the Mir-3 model showed that the proposed solutions do not lead to the elimination of the global crisis situation. Solving the demographic problem by controlling population growth with exponential growth in industrial production does not remove the threat of depletion of natural resources and environmental pollution. The implementation of control over environmental pollution is accompanied by the exhaustion of the possibilities of intensive agricultural cultivation of areas suitable for agriculture, and a decrease in food production. Advances in agricultural productivity are leading to intense environmental pollution.

According to the conclusions of the authors of The Limits to Growth, the prevention of a global catastrophe is possible only if measures are taken to create conditions for economic and environmental stability, which implies a transition from growth to global equilibrium. This global equilibrium presupposes the satisfaction of basic material needs each person and the realization of his creative potential.

The work "The Limits to Growth" has become one of the most popular in various countries of the world. After being published within a year, it was translated into many languages. Over time, its circulation reached more than 10 million copies.

Two years later, a voluminous volume of materials was published in which well-known scientists and public figures assessed the work of D. Meadows' group and the activities of the Club of Rome as a whole. Discussions about the results of computer modeling of possible trends in the development of mankind have begun in many countries of the world. All this contributed to the popularization of not only the Limits to Growth, but also the Club of Rome as an organization whose second stage of development can be dated to 1972-1975.

In October 1974, at the regular annual session, the second report to the Club of Rome, known as Humanity at the Turning Point, was presented and discussed. It was the result of the work of two groups of scientists who conducted research under the leadership of M. Mesarovich in Cleveland (USA) and E. Pestel in Hannover (Germany).

The report “Humanity at the Turning Point” focused on the study of the world as a system of interconnected regions with their inherent features of development, which was not characteristic of the “World-3” model, in which the world was presented as a single and undivided whole. As a result of playing all sorts of options, M. Mesarovic and E. Pestel came to the conclusion that if the existing trends in world development continue, a series of regional catastrophes is inevitable. These catastrophes may occur earlier than the scientists led by D. Meadows, who demonstrated the possibility of a global collapse in the first half of the 21st century, using their model as an example, expected.

According to the authors of the second report to the Club of Rome, the survival strategy should not consist in achieving global equilibrium, as suggested in the first report, but in the transition to organic growth. It was about the need for a differentiated development of various parts of the world system, contributing to the balanced functioning of mankind as a living organism.

In their study, M. Mesarovic and E. Pestel proceeded from the fact that humanity is at a critical point in its history and it will have to make a choice: either follow the path of further "cancerous" growth that threatens the existence of people on Earth, or embark on a new path of organic growth that gives a chance for survival. This choice will determine whether people can solve environmental problems and prevent impending regional crises. Because crises in modern world more and more deepening, acquiring a global character, it is necessary, according to M. Mesarovic and E. Pestel, to urgently develop an appropriate survival strategy and make a choice in favor of differentiated growth, contributing to the resolution of crisis situations.

Like The Limits to Growth, the publication of Humanity at the Turning Point has sparked a heated debate in the scientific world. The ideas and methods put forward by M. Mesarovich and E. Pestel for constructing a model of the world system not only received recognition from a number of theorists, but also began to be used in the practical activities of some states. Thus, the concept of organic growth was used in a project to study the relationship between culture and the natural environment, which was developed outside the Club of Rome by an international team of scientists at the Southeastern Research Center at the University of Hawaii. The methodology for constructing a computer model of the world system was applied in the practical activities of some industrial departments in Austria, Venezuela, Egypt, India, and Finland.

During the second half of the 70s and early 80s. series has been completed research projects published in the form of relevant reports to the Club of Rome. In these reports, attention began to be paid not only to the external, physical limits of growth associated with the state of the environment, but also to the internal limits related to the social, political, cultural activities of people. The third stage in the development of the Club of Rome - from 1976 to 1984 (the year of the death of the first president of this organization A. Peccei) - is precisely characterized by a shift in research focus from external to internal growth limits.

During this period, several research projects of the Club of Rome were carried out, the results of which were repeatedly discussed both at annual sessions and at various meetings of scientists, representatives of the business world, and public figures. In particular, in August-September 1977, representatives of the Club of Rome met with Russian scientists in Moscow. Some of the participants in the Moscow meeting, including M. Mesarovich, made presentations at the Institute for System Analysis of the Russian Academy of Sciences (at that time VNIISI). In 1978 and 1979 D. Meadows spoke at the same Institute, sharing with Moscow scientists the results of his research in the field of global modeling and the application of systemic methodology in the development of the US anti-alcohol program.

In the third report - "Revision of the international order", carried out by a group of scientists led by the Dutch economist, Nobel Prize winner J. Tinbergen and published in 1976, the analysis of the state of mankind was based on the identification of sharp contrasts and contradictions in the modern world. The report described the changes taking place in the economies of individual countries, in trade and financial relations between various states and significant differences between rich and poor countries.

The International Order Revisited did not use quantitative methods, as was the case in previous reports to the Club of Rome, but qualitative research methods. Based on their analysis, the authors of the report came to the conclusion that it is necessary to implement international reforms to ensure the dignity and well-being of every human being. They called for the creation of a new international order within which it is possible to build a humanistic society that contributes to the preservation of the environment, the achievement of universal equality, the assimilation and further development of the cultural values ​​of mankind.

In the same year, the fourth report was published - "Beyond the Age of Waste", carried out under the guidance of the English physicist, Nobel Prize winner D. Gabor and reflecting the results of a study of the planet's natural resources. The purpose of the report was to study the scientific and technical potential and the possibilities of using it to resolve energy, raw material and food problems. This filled the gap of the first two research projects, which did not pay due attention to the role of science and technology in dealing with global and regional crises.

The authors of the publication "Beyond the Age of Waste" came to the conclusion that the limits of economic growth, as well as the problems associated with the use of energy, raw materials and food resources, are due not so much to limited scientific and technological potential, but to those existing at the international and national levels. social institutions. Radical changes in the development of human civilization can be carried out only if appropriate social conditions to ensure the life of people, a mature society will be built that will improve the quality of life of all the inhabitants of the planet and develop a reasonable attitude of man to nature that does not violate the pre-established harmony in the world.

Written under the guidance of the American philosopher E. Laszlo and published in 1977, the fifth report - "Goals for Humanity" was devoted to the analysis of the world atlas of modern goals. The disclosure of the atlas of goals was carried out at two levels - national and transnational - with subsequent detailed description The goals of various countries, multinational corporations, the International Labor Organization, the World Council of Churches and the Roman Catholic Church.

In accordance with the conclusions of the author of the report, for the further development of mankind, a general reorientation to global goals is necessary, the achievement of which presupposes the implementation of a revolution of world solidarity. This revolution will create the necessary prerequisites for the establishment of a common global solidarity that contributes to meeting the needs of mankind in security, food security, the wise use of energy and natural resources, and development along the path of social progress.

The sixth report - "Energy: Reverse Counting" was prepared by the French researcher T. Montbrial and published in 1978. It examined the contradictions between the needs of mankind in energy resources and the possibilities of satisfying them, correlated with acute economic, social and political problems. It was also assumed that in the near future a second energy crisis could erupt, more severe in its consequences than the previous one, which took place in 1973.

As emphasized in the report, it is important to take the necessary measures to ensure that humanity is not on the verge of a global energy catastrophe, as a result of which people can become victims of an energy drama. Proceeding from this, nations, countries and states are obliged to approach the solution of the energy problem with all the responsibility assigned to them. The responsibility that is possible on the basis of active international cooperation.

In 1979, the seventh report to the Club of Rome was published - "There are no limits to learning", prepared by a teacher at the Harvard School of Education (USA) J. Botkin, a professor at the University. Mohamed V (Morocco) M. Elmanjr and Professor of the University of Bucharest M. Malitz. The focus of the presentation was on various aspects of learning, which was understood as a general approach to life, and not just school, university or other types of education.

The authors of the report expressed the idea that in recent years there has been a deep gap between the ever-increasing complexity of the world and the ability of a person to navigate in new conditions of life, due to the traditional form of education. This gap, called in the report the human gap, leads to the predicaments of mankind, which are the subject of special attention on the part of the Club of Rome.

In order to successfully solve global problems and eliminate crisis situations, it is necessary, according to the authors of the report, to radically revise existing teaching methods. It is important to introduce new forms of education based on innovative learning that orients people to foresight and active participation in creating their own future and thus a better future for humanity.

In the eighth report - "The Third World: Three Quarters of the World", prepared by the French economist M. Guernier, an attempt was made to comprehend the historical forms of economic development of the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. It called for the choice of an alternative development path, suggesting the orientation of developing countries not so much on outside assistance as on self-sufficiency.

The report stressed the need to reorganize agriculture on a priority basis, greater centralization of the financial and organizational efforts of developing countries. As for the prospects for the development of mankind as a whole, they were considered from the point of view of a careful attitude to the natural resources of the planet, the reasonable use of the achievements of science and technology, the cessation of the arms race, and the unification of efforts at the international level in order to prevent all kinds of conflicts.

The ninth report - "Dialogue on Wealth and Wealth", prepared by the Italian economist O. Giarini, focused on economic issues and thinking problems conceptual apparatus, theoretical constructions that inadequately reflect the state of affairs in the world. Particular emphasis was placed on the disclosure of the Western way of thinking as a negative legacy of European Cartesianism, which arose on the basis of the ideas of the French philosopher R. Descartes and subsequently predetermined the corresponding models of the economy, characterized by extreme rationalization.

According to the author of the report, the contradictions of modern economic development and its limits are rooted not in reality as such, but in a way of thinking that reproduces this reality in a distorted form. For the successful solution of global problems and the survival of human civilization, it is necessary to form a new concept of the economy based on the synthesis of economic and environmental components of human development. It is also necessary to put forward new strategies for achieving wealth and well-being, assuming an orientation towards the ecological and economic values ​​of life.

In the tenth report - "Routes leading to the future", prepared by the director of the International Institute of Management B. Gavrilishin, an attempt was made to determine the social efficiency of various countries. The purpose of the study was to identify acceptable landmarks or routes that are conducive to building the most effective society in terms of socio-economic, political and cultural relations.

The report analyzed individual countries in terms of the functioning of such components as the economic system, political power and values ​​of life. It has been suggested that by modifying these components and by changing the relationships between them, a corresponding increase in the efficiency of a country can be achieved. At the same time, the idea was advocated of the need for convergence of various social systems and the expediency of the general use of the model of socio-economic and political development, which in practice confirmed the effectiveness market economy based on private property.

In 1981, the eleventh report was published - "The Imperatives of North-South Cooperation" by the French researcher J. Saint-Geur. It noted that over the previous years, when global problems attracted the attention of the world community, the gap between rich and poor countries not only did not decrease, but actually increased. According to a number of indicators of their development, the countries of the North are significantly ahead of the countries of the South, which are sliding into the abyss of poverty, especially in connection with catastrophic demographic growth and the inability to provide the population with food.

The report emphasized that in the context of escalating global problems, close cooperation between the North and the South is a fruitful solution. This cooperation must take on new forms that help the developing countries get out of the crisis and thereby alleviate the fate of all mankind.

1982 was marked by the publication of the twelfth report - "Microelectronics and society: for joy or for sorrow", prepared by the German scientist G. Friedrichs and the Polish philosopher A. Schaff. Based on a large factual material, it examined various aspects of the computerization of the world and the invasion of microprocessors in all spheres of life. modern society. In connection with the microprocessor revolution, the transformations in industrial production were discussed, information support, education, healthcare.

The report drew attention to the dual nature of the microprocessor revolution. On the one hand, this revolution leads to the creation of favorable opportunities for increasing labor productivity, developing the service economy and reorganizing the ways of communication between people, improving the processes of education and medical care. On the other hand, it is accompanied by the dismissal of workers employed in traditional industries, the use of electronic dossiers to control people or put pressure on them, the restriction of the free development of the individual and the robotization of man. In a word, the report stressed, for good or bad, but microelectronics gives rise to new problems, including problems of a global nature, which require further understanding and resolution.

The thirteenth report - "The Third World Can Feed Itself", prepared by the French researcher Lenoir, was published in 1984. It analyzed the problems of food shortages in developing countries and considered scenarios for the further development of these countries, taking into account the possibilities of importing food from developed countries or their orientation for self-sufficiency.

As in the Eighth Report, this study favored third world development paths that emphasized self-sufficiency. In doing so, the thirteenth report examined specific development strategies that gave priority to independent agricultural communities and their self-government.

After the death of A. Peccei in 1984, his closest associate, the English scientist Alexander King, became the president of the Club of Rome. The time of his presidency until 1990 can be considered the fourth stage in the development of the Club of Rome. During this period, the development of research projects that began during the life of A. Peccei continued, and research was also organized to comprehend the changes that have occurred in recent times. Attention was paid to both traditional for the Club of Rome issues related to the analysis of various regions of the world in the context of global processes, and the search for new paradigms of thinking associated with going beyond growth.

In 1985, the fourteenth report was published - "Barefoot Revolution", prepared by the Secretary General of the Club of Rome B. Schneider. It is an overview of many small projects carried out by various research teams in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Based on this review, it was emphasized that the activities of non-governmental organizations that took part in the development of small projects turned out to be more effective than the work of state institutions. However, at present, according to B. Schneider, it is necessary to move from micro-projects to integrated development projects based on a global vision of the prospects of mankind. It's about about a new approach to development based on the understanding that the initiative for action moves from the North to the South, priorities political activity are devoted to meeting the needs of the rural population, more attention is paid not to the export and import of food, but to its local production and consumption.

What is happening today in Asia, Africa and Latin America can be called a "barefoot revolution". It is characterized by a peaceful character and is carried out within the framework of respect for the laws. This revolution is not yet correlated with political parties and ideological structures. However, according to B. Schneider, over time it can develop into a political movement or become a destructive force in the hands of extremist leaders.

The fifteenth report prepared by E. Mann-Borgese - "The Future of the Ocean" was published in 1986. It contained estimates as state of the art of the World Ocean, and the prospects for the development of mankind, considered through the prism of the positive and negative consequences of human activity in the seas and oceans. The report expressed concern about water pollution caused by industrial wastes and toxic substances entering the oceans and leading to the death of the living ocean world.

The sixteenth report - "Africa Before Priorities", prepared by B. Schneider and published in 1987, considered the problems of population, urbanization, the debt of African states to world banks, the onset of deserts on the African continent and hunger, covering millions of people. As in the “Barefoot Revolution” report, this study noted the positive role of non-governmental organizations in solving the acute problems of the African continent and the need for development local government in various communities. Great hope was placed on the combination of the use of new technologies and traditional forms of agricultural production, which, according to B. Schneider, should contribute to resolving the most acute crisis situations in African countries.

Written by E. Pestel and published in 1988, the seventeenth report - "Beyond Growth" is dedicated to the memory of A. Peccei and reflects many of the ideas previously put forward within the Club of Rome. It discussed actual problems modernity and promising opportunities for their solution in a global context, taking into account both the achievements of science and technology, including microelectronics, biotechnology, nuclear and other types of energy, and the international situation in the world, which causes socio-economic and political contradictions between different countries.

E. Pestel, as it were, summed up the fifteen-year debate about the limits of growth and emphasized that the issue is not growth as such, but the quality of growth. Repeating the considerations expressed in the second report to the Club of Rome, he proposed to switch to a strategy of differentiated development, characterized not by static, but by dynamic equilibrium.

In 1989, the eighteenth report was published - "Africa Without Hunger", prepared by A. Lemma and P. Malaska, and the nineteenth - "The Limits of Uncertainty", completed by O. Giarini and U. Stael. One discussed the problems of food supply for the African continent and, in fact, considered such development strategies as were proposed in previous reports to the Club of Rome on developing countries. Another raised the issue of decision-making under conditions of uncertainty, which is characteristic of the modern unstable world with its complex global systems, problems and processes that are in constant interaction with each other.

Since 1990, when Ricardo Diez Hochleitner became president of the Club of Rome, the fifth stage of this organization begins. It is characterized by the intensification of the activities of the Club of Rome, associated with the publication in 1991 of the twentieth report - "The First Global Revolution", prepared by A. King and B. Schneider, published in 20 countries and aroused considerable interest among the world community. If all previous reports were sent to this organization, then the "First Global Revolution" became the first report of the Council of the Club of Rome.

In the report of A. King and B. Schneider, the world problems were discussed in those aspects and perspectives that, from the very beginning of the theoretical and practical activities of the Club of Rome, were perceived as the most important and essential for understanding the difficulties of mankind. At the same time, the authors of the report proceeded from the fact that the current situation in the world has changed radically under the influence of microelectronics, discoveries in the field of molecular biology, as well as political events that took place in Eastern Europe and led to a new vision of international relations.

Modern changes taking place simultaneously in various societies and the problems associated with them, leading to the emergence of new conflict situations, give rise to what A. King and B. Schneider called "the first global revolution." This revolution has nothing to do with ideology. It is unprecedented in the history of human development, it is a combination of various geostrategic catastrophes and technological, socio-economic, political, cultural and moral factors, the combination of which leads to the uncertainty of the further development of mankind. The first global revolution requires a new understanding of the world and the need to solve the problem of managing it under conditions of uncertainty. Therefore, along with a detailed discussion of global issues, the report considered a set of issues related to identifying opportunities and abilities to make effective decisions.

A practical answer to the global problems is becoming one of the critical tasks facing humanity today. The solution of global problems, according to A. King and B. Schneider, should be based on an ethical vision of the world, which implies reliance on universal human values ​​of life. As for the priority tasks, they should include, first of all, the solution of the problem of reconversion, that is, the transfer of the military economy into the mainstream of the civilian economy, global warming on the planet and energy supply. Successful solution of these tasks is possible under the condition of achieving world solidarity as the highest moral principle of survival.

The ideas expressed in the report "The First Global Revolution" and further directions studies were discussed at the annual session of the Club of Rome in 1991. The twenty-year anniversary of the publication of the first report "The Limits to Growth" was approaching, which attracted the attention of the world community to the activities of this organization. To this anniversary date D. Meadows re-examined what had been done twenty years ago. It was important to demonstrate to the world community the course of human development, taking into account previous recommendations, and the real state of affairs in the last decade of the twentieth century.

The results of the re-study were reflected in the work of D. Meadows "Beyond Growth". The corresponding mathematical calculations showed that, despite all the previous recommendations to change the direction of the development of human civilization in order to preserve life on Earth, over the past twenty years, many global problems have not been resolved. The exponential growth of population and industrial production continues. There is an aggravation of the ecological situation. The problem of providing food to millions of people who are on the verge of starvation has not been solved. In general, as emphasized in the work of D. Meadows, humanity is already beyond the limits of growth and the world is approaching a global catastrophe.

According to D. Meadows' calculations, two global crises should be expected in the near future. The first is related to the depletion of the ozone layer. The second crisis will take place in the field of world fisheries. It is important now to take action to prevent these global crises. In terms of the overall outlook for human development, the exponential growth of population and physical capital must be slowed down and then virtually stopped.

Scliaff A., Friedrichs G, Microelectronics and Society: for Better or for Worse. Oxford, 1982.

King A., Schneider B. The First Global Revolution. Oxford, 1991. (King A., Schneider B. The First Global Revolution. M., 1991).

Roman club is a large non-political organization founded in the 20th century. Its main goal was to find ways to resolve the global problems of mankind. It is composed of respected academics (today has 100 members) and the club's work has an international impact.

History of the Club of Rome

The Club of Rome began its activities in 1968. It consisted of enthusiasts from the Accademia dei Lincei, which is located in Rome (which explains the name). The founder of the club was A. Peccei, an Italian scientist and activist. The reason for this collection of the best minds of Italy was the concern of the rapid pace of development. scientific revolution, active industry - all this had the other side of the coin. Here is what the founder of Peccei himself said:

The more clearly I imagined all these dangers threatening humanity, the more convinced I was of the need to take some decisive measures before it was too late. I alone could not do anything, and then I decided to create a small circle of like-minded people with whom we could think together about how to formulate these world problems (which worried not only me) and propose new approaches to their study.

At that time the club consisted of 12 people. Today there is a limit on membership: only 100 people can sit in it. In addition to scientists, influential people, including politicians, also took part in it. Mikhail Gorbachev became the most famous member of the Club of Rome.

What did you study at the Club of Rome?

So, what global problems did this club study and what did they actually achieve? In general, all global problems can be conditionally divided into societies and nature, as well as problems within the society itself or social (see the diagram below). Initially, the activities of the scientific community were aimed at environmental problems. First of all, this was due to the booming industry and ignoring any measures of its greening. The Club of Rome distinguished itself by its contribution to the study of this phenomenon. Today, statistics on the impact of many industrial wastes seem natural to us, but not so long ago people simply did not focus on this.

They raised to a new level such important issues as population growth, resource depletion, problems of unequal distribution of resources, and many others.

Scheme of global problems of mankind

Environmental and Resource Research

Up the Club of Rome lifted on high level the study of one of the most global issues, namely the topic of overpopulation of our planet, was still the famous economist of the 19th century - T. Malthus. He, in his work "The Theory of Overpopulation", tried to scientifically prove the inevitability of general hunger and depletion of resources, as the population of the Earth is growing exponentially. I hasten to please that Malthus did not take into account the scientific achievements of modern people and the possible progress in the future, so that the theory has obvious flaws. However, he took a big step by putting something as vast as the future of humanity under scientific scrutiny.

The same theme was continued by the scientists of the Club of Rome. As mentioned earlier, their initial activities were focused on the problems of the human environment. The activity of the Club was manifested by the creation of reports on world problems, the collection of statistics, the identification of new views and ways of studying, the promotion of programs on how to deal with them after all. The first such report was the work of a professor at the University of Massachusetts J. Forrester. In 1971, he first used a computer to build a model for the development of a future civilization by 2020. His book "World Dynamics" formulated the idea of ​​developing a simulator of the development of human civilization as a single system.

D. Meadows finalized and deepened this theory. Three options for the development of our society according to its work are illustrated below. "Limits to Growth"(source - http://www.krugosvet.ru)

The first scheme says that if there were no qualitative changes, then at the beginning of the 21st century. began a sharp decline in industrial production, and by the middle - and the population of the planet. And this outcome proves the likelihood of a global crisis by 2100.

Meadows, on the other hand, proposed the theory of "global conservation", that is, freezing the productivity of industry and stabilizing the population. His version of the development of events can be seen in the diagram below:

Today, almost 50 years later, we can argue that the scientist's statements were unnecessarily exaggerated. He, like T. Malthus, did not take into account the fact that the scientific and technological revolution accelerates not only the consumption of non-renewable resources and environmental pollution, but also the development of new resources, the introduction of resource-saving and environmentally friendly technologies. This gives us a more positive picture for the future than can be heard even in the statements of modern scientists.

Nevertheless, the work "Limits to Growth" can be singled out as one of the best examples work of the Club of Rome in the field of environmental problems. It was they who spoke about it officially, but loudly and publicly. There are suggestions that the popularity of environmental protection, the beginning of serious research on the environment and the development of new technologies, such as electric cars or smart homes, are due to this campaign today.

Global problems within society

So, to talk about learning how to deal with these problems, let's first clear up a couple of the most obvious examples of these kinds of problems:

The fight against these problems was organized back in the 1940s by such world-famous organizations as the UN, WHO, UNESCO. Many of their activities were based on the materials of the Club of Rome.

I found the works of J. Tinbergen to be interesting reports. He proposed the idea of ​​several new world economic organizations: a world bank that would have the right to carry out international taxation and dispose of the collected funds; a mineral resource agency responsible for the use of minerals on a global scale; global agency responsible for the development and dissemination of technology. This could help with the problems of "rich north, poor south", but in practice could not be applied. Most states felt that this violated their sovereignty.

After this issue, many scientists thought about how to change the situation without taking so many global measures in relation to the state. sovereignty. Scientists began to think about humanitarian problems, like education, more.

So report to the Club of Rome "There are no limits to learning" was devoted to the prospects for the development of mass education, which can significantly reduce the gap in the level of culture of people from different social groups and countries of the world. in the report "Barefoot Revolution" the results and prospects of development in the "third world" of small informal entrepreneurship aimed at meeting the needs of local residents were considered.

Today, the Club of Rome still continues its work, although more privately. In fact, all the work of the Club of Rome proves that for almost 50 years its members have been trying to open our eyes to important issues that affect our lives. Maybe it's time for us to think ordinary people, which are the same part of this planet?

Phenomena commonly called "global problems" arose in the middle of the 20th century and were recognized by the scientific community 20 years later. Global problems- these are problems concerning (to one degree or another) all countries and peoples, the solution of which is possible only through the combined efforts of the entire world community. The very existence of terrestrial civilization, or at least its existence, is connected with the solution of these problems. further development.

Global problems are complex in nature, closely intertwined with each other. With a certain degree of conventionality, two main blocks can be distinguished (Fig. 1):

1) problems associated with the contradiction between society and the environment (the system "society - nature");

2) social problems associated with contradictions within society (the “man-society” system).

The listed problems matured asynchronously. English economist T. Malthus in the early 19th century. made a conclusion about the danger of excessive population growth. After 1945, the threat of the development of weapons of mass destruction became obvious. The gap in the world between the advanced "rich North" and the backward "poor South" was recognized as a problem only in the last third of the 20th century. The problem of international organized crime became acute only at the end of the 20th century.

Nevertheless, it is correct to consider the middle of the 20th century as the moment of the birth of global problems. It is during this period that two processes are unfolding that seem to be the main root causes of modern global problems. The first process is the globalization of socio-economic and political life, based on the formation of a relatively unified world economy. The second is the deployment of the scientific and technological revolution (NTR), which has multiplied many times all the possibilities of man, including self-destruction. It is in the course of these processes that problems that previously remained local become global. For example, the danger of overpopulation affected all countries when waves of migrants from developing countries poured into developed countries, and the governments of these countries began to demand a “new international order” - gratuitous aid as payment for the “sins” of the colonial past.

The Club of Rome played a primary role in understanding global problems and finding ways to solve them.

Organization of the activities of the Club of Rome.

The Club began its activities in 1968 with a meeting at the Accademia dei Lincei in Rome, from where the name of this non-profit organization. Its headquarters is in Paris.

The Club of Rome has no staff and no formal budget. Its activities are coordinated by an executive committee consisting of 12 people. A.Pecchei, A.King (1984–1991) and R.Dies-Hochleitner (since 1991) have successively held the post of club president.

According to the rules, no more than 100 people from different countries peace. The members of the Club are dominated by scientists and politicians from developed countries. In addition to actual members, there are honorary and associate members.

The work of the Club of Rome is facilitated by more than 30 national associations of the Club of Rome, which promote the club's concepts in their countries.

Russia in the early 2000s is represented in the Club by three people: M. Gorbachev is an honorary member of the club, D. Gvishiani and S. Kapitsa are full members. Previously, members of the Club were E.K. Fedorov, E.M. Primakov and Ch. Aitmatov. In 1989, the Association for Assistance to the Club of Rome was established in the USSR; after the collapse of the USSR, it was reformed into the Russian Association for Assistance to the Club of Rome (President - DV Gvishiani).

The main "product" of the Club's activities are its reports on priority global problems and ways to solve them. By order of the Club of Rome, prominent scientists prepared more than 30 reports (Table). In addition, in 1991 the leaders of the Club prepared the first report on behalf of the Club of Rome itself - "The First Global Revolution".

The methods of neoclassical economics, which is dominant in economics and is based on the principle of rational individualism, seem to the members of the Club to be ineffective in understanding these problems. His research makes extensive use of computer modeling and institutional methodology based on an interdisciplinary approach and a primary focus on institutions – organizations and cultural property The concept of synergetics, proposed by I.Prigozhin (a full member of the Club), had a great influence on the development of the theory of globalistics - a system analysis of complex phenomena, the elements of which are interconnected by numerous interdependencies.

If initially the Club of Rome focused on the contradictions between society and nature, then it began to give priority to social problems.

The Club of Rome's influence on world public opinion reached its peak in the 1970s and 1980s. Under the influence of his activities, globalistics was formed as an interdisciplinary social science discipline. In the 1990s-2000s, the ideas of global studies entered the scientific culture, but the activity of the Club of Rome and the public's attention to it fell noticeably. Having fulfilled its role as a "pioneer" in the study of global problems of our time, the Club of Rome has become one of the many international organizations that coordinate the exchange of views between intellectuals on topical issues of our time.

Analysis by the Club of Rome of global problems in the "society - nature" system.

The severity of global problems associated with the contradictions between society and the environment is due to their connection with the safety of earthly civilization. The modern highly developed technological civilization has lost the ability to self-regenerate, which was possessed by more primitive ancient and medieval societies. If it collapses as a result of any cataclysm, then it will be almost impossible to restore it. Even if humanity survives this, it will not be able to return to the Iron Age, since most of the main mineral resources have already been depleted to such an extent that their extraction will require complex technologies that require metal-intensive equipment. In the event of the death of the current "world of technology", the new civilization can only be agrarian, but will never become industrial.

It was with the analysis of the relationship between society and the environment that the work of the Club of Rome began. initial work at the Club's suggestion, the event was held by J. Forrester, an American specialist in computer modeling. The results of his research, published in the book World Dynamics(1971) showed that the continuation of the previous rates of consumption of natural resources will lead to a global environmental catastrophe in the 2020s.

Report to the Club of Rome created under the guidance of the American specialist in systems research D. Meadows Limits to Growth(1972) continued and deepened the work of J. Forrester. This report has gained a reputation as a scientific bestseller, it has been translated into several dozen languages, its very name has become a household word.

The authors of this report, the most famous published by the Club of Rome, have developed several models based on extrapolation of observed trends in population growth and the depletion of known natural resources.

According to the standard model, if there are no qualitative changes, then at the beginning of the 21st century. first, a sharp decline in the average per capita industrial production will begin, and then in the population of the planet (Fig. 2). Even if the amount of resources doubles, the global crisis will only be pushed back until about the middle of the 21st century. (Fig. 3). The only way out of the catastrophic situation was the transition to the development planned on a global scale according to the model global equilibrium(in fact, “zero growth”), that is, the conscious conservation of industrial production and population (Fig. 4).

From the very beginning, the Club of Rome considered it one of its main tasks to attract the attention of the world community to global problems through its reports. The Club's order for reports determines only the topic and guarantees the funding of scientific research, but in no case affects either the progress of the work or its results and conclusions; the authors of reports, including those who are members of the Club, enjoy complete freedom and independence. Having received the finished report, the Club considers and approves it, as a rule, during the annual conference, often in the presence of the general public - representatives of the public, science, politicians, the press - and then disseminates the results of the study by publishing reports and discussing them in various audiences and countries around the world.

Encyclopedic YouTube

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  The Club of Rome organizes large-scale research on a wide range of topics, but mainly in the socio-economic field.

  The activities of the Club of Rome include a wide range of concrete scientific developments that served as an impetus for the emergence of such a new area of ​​scientific research as global modeling, global problems, general philosophical reasoning about human existence in the modern world, the values ​​of life and the prospects for the development of mankind. Works in the field of global modeling, building the first computer models of the world, criticizing the negative trends of Western civilization, debunking the technocratic myth about economic growth as the most effective means of solving all problems, searching for ways to humanize man and the world, condemning the arms race, calling on the world community to join forces, stop interethnic strife, preserve the environment, improve the well-being of people and improve the quality of life - all this is the positive aspects of the activities of the Club of Rome, which attracted the attention of progressive scientists, politicians, statesmen.

  The theoretical studies of the representatives of the Club of Rome, as well as the research methodology, are used in various sciences.

  Club membership

  Membership in the Club of Rome is limited (100 people). "As a rule, members of governments cannot be members of the Club of Rome at the same time". No member of the Club of Rome represents any state organization and does not display any one - ideological, political or national view.

  Story

  The Club of Rome laid the foundation for research work on problems called "Global Problems". To answer the questions raised by the club, a number of eminent scientists created a series of "Reports to the Club of Rome" under the general title "The Difficulties of Humanity". Forecasts of the prospects for the development of the world were made on the basis of computer models, and the results were published and discussed around the world.

  Hassan Ozbekhan, Erich Janch and Alexander Christakis, who developed mathematical model development of civilization commissioned by Aurelio Pecchei and Alexander King. The zero global mathematical computer model of the development of the world was created by the American philosopher and mathematician of Turkish origin Hasan Ozbekhan.

  In the early 1970s, at the suggestion of the Club, Jay Forrester applied his computer modeling technique to world problems. The results of the study were published in the book "World Dynamics" (1971), which stated that the further development of mankind on a physically limited planet Earth would lead to an ecological catastrophe in the 20s of the next century. The Limits to Growth project by Dennis Meadows (1972), the first report to the Club of Rome, completed Forrester's research. But the "system dynamics" method proposed by Meadows was not suitable for working with a regional world model, so the Meadows model was criticized fiercely. Nevertheless, the Forrester-Meadows model was given the status of the first report of the Club of Rome. The report "Limits to Growth" marked the beginning of a number of reports of the Club, in which issues related to economic growth, development, learning, implications of new technologies, global thinking. In 1974 the second report of the Club was published. It was headed by members of the Club of Rome M. Mesarovic and E. Pestel. "Humanity at the Crossroads" proposed the concept of "organic growth", according to which each region of the world should perform its own specific function, like a cell in a living organism. The concept of "organic growth" was fully adopted by the Club of Rome and still remains one of the main ideas it advocates.

  The Meadows-Forrester and Messarovich-Pestel models laid the foundation for the idea of ​​limiting resource consumption at the expense of the so-called industrially underdeveloped countries. The method proposed by scientists was demanded by the US government for forecasting and, accordingly, for actively influencing the processes taking place in the world.

  The next work of the members of the Club devoted to the world system is the report of J. Tinbergen "Revision of the international order" (1976). It differs significantly from previous works. Tinbergen presented in his report a project for restructuring the world economy. They made specific recommendations concerning principles of conduct and activity, main lines of policy, the creation of new or the reorganization of existing institutions in order to provide conditions for more sustainable development world system.

  An important role among the reports to the Club is played by the work of the President of the Club A. Peccei "Human qualities" (1980). Peccei proposes six, as he calls "starting" goals, which are related to the "outer limits" of the planet; "inner limits" of the person himself; cultural heritage of peoples; formation of the world community; environmental protection and reorganization of the production system. A person in his activity should proceed from the possibilities of the nature around him, not bringing them to extreme limits. The central idea of ​​this report is "internal limits", that is, the improvement of a person, the disclosure of his new potential. As the author writes: “It was necessary to make sure that as many people as possible could make this sharp leap in their understanding of reality.”

  A special place among the reports to the Club of Rome is occupied by Eduard Pestel's report "Beyond Growth" (1987), dedicated to the memory of Aurelio Peccei. It discusses the current problems of "organic growth" and the prospects for their solution in a global context that takes into account the achievements of science and technology, including both microelectronics, biotechnology, nuclear power and the international situation. “Only by developing a common point of view on these fundamental issues - and this should be done primarily by rich and strong countries - can we find the right strategy for the transition to organic growth, which we can then pass on to our partners at the subsystem level. Only then will it be possible to manage the world system and manage it reliably. Pestel's report sums up fifteen years of debate about the limits of growth and concludes that the issue is not growth per se, but the quality of growth.

  In 1991, for the first time, a report appeared on behalf of the Club of Rome itself, written by its president, Alexander King. (English) and General Secretary Bertrand Schneider - "The First Global Revolution". Summing up the results of its twenty-five years of activity, the Council of the Club again and again refers to the recent changes in the world and characterizes the current state of global issues in the context of the new situation in international relations that arose after the end of the long confrontation between East and West; a new economic situation emerging as a result of the creation of new blocs, the emergence of new geostrategic forces; new priorities in such global problems as population, environment, resources, energy, technology, finance, etc. The authors of the report carried out a systematic analysis of the activities of the Club of Rome, summarized the materials of the reports presented by the club, did an enormous amount of research work and, on this basis, proposed an action program for solving world problems. This is the most significant work describing the main activities of the Club of Rome.

  In 1997, another report of the Club of Rome “Factor Four. Costs - half, return - double ", which was prepared by Weizsäcker E. , Lovins E. , Lovins L. The purpose of this work was to solve the questions posed in previous works of the Club of Rome and, above all, in the first report "Limits to Growth". The main idea of ​​this report aroused unprecedented interest around the world. Its essence lies in the fact that modern civilization has reached a level of development at which the growth of production in virtually all sectors of the economy can be carried out in a progressive economy without attracting additional resources and energy. Humanity "can live twice as rich with only half the resources."

  Modernity

  At the beginning of 2008, the international secretariat of the Club of Rome was relocated from Hamburg, Germany to Winterthur, Switzerland (Canton of Zurich). The Club of Rome is currently continuing to study the current state of the world, in which fundamental changes have taken place, especially in geopolitics. It is also worth remembering that the ecological situation on the planet continues to deteriorate. In close cooperation with many scientific and educational organizations In May 2008, the Club of Rome developed a new three-year program, A New Path for World Development, which outlines the main areas of activity until 2012.

  Roman Club in Russia

  In 1989, the Association for Assistance to the Club of Rome was established in the USSR. After 1991, it was reformed into the Russian Association for the Promotion of the Club of Rome and operates under the auspices of the Advanced Research Support Fund.

  IN different time Academicians of the Russian Academy of Sciences D. M. Gvishiani , E. K. Fedorov , E. M. Primakov , A. A. Logunov , V. A. Sadovnichy , writer Ch. T. Aitmatov were full members of the club. Honorary members were M. S. Gorbachev and B. E. Paton.

  Until 2012, Russia was represented in the Club of Rome as a full member by Professor S. P. Kapitsa.

  The president

  • 1984-1990 Alexander King
  • 1990-2000 Ricardo Diez-Hochleitner
  • Co-chairs since September 2007: Ashok Khosla, Eberhard von Kerber
  • Co-chairs since 2012: Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker, Anders Wijkman

  Reports

  • 1972 - " The Limits to Growth ", Dennis Meadows and others.
  • 1974/75 - "Mankind at the Turning Point", Mikhailo Mesarovich and Eduard Pestel
  • 1976 - "Reshaping the International Order", Jan Tinbergen
  • 1977 - "Goals for Mankind", Erwin Laszlo and others.
  • 1978 - "Beyond the Age of Waste", Denis Garbor and others.
  • 1978/79 - "Energy: The Countdown" ("Energy: The Countdown"), Thierry de Montbrial
  • 1978/79 - "No Limits to Learning", J. Botkin, E. Elmanjra, M. Malica
  • 1980 - "Third World: Three Quarters of the World" ("Tiers-Monde: Trois Quarts du Monde"), Maurice Guernier
  • 1980 - "Guides to the future: towards more effective societies" ("Road maps to the future - towards more effective societies"), Bogdan Gavrylyshyn [remove template ]
  • 1980 - Dialogue on Wealth and Welfare: An Alternative View of World Capital Formation, Orio Giriani
  • 1981 - "Imperatives of North-South Cooperation" ("L'impératif de coopération nord / sud"), Jean, Saint-Jour
  • 1982 - "Microelectronics and Society" ("Microelectronics and Society"), G. Friedrichs, A. Schaff
  • 1984 - "The third world is able to feed itself" ("Le tiers monde peut se nourrir"), Rene Lenoir
  • 1986 - "The Future of the Oceans", Elisabeth Mann-Borgese
  • 1988 - "The Barefoot Revolution" ("The Barefoot revolution"), Bertrand Schneider
  • 1989/93 - "The Limits to Certainty", Orio Giarini and Walter Stachel
  • 1989 - "Beyond the Limit to Growth", Eduard Pestel
  • 1989 - Africa Beyond Famine (Africa Beyond Famine), Aklilu Lemma and Pentti Malaska
  • 1991 - "The First Global Revolution", Alexander King and Bertrand Schneider
  • 1994/2001 - "The Capacity To Govern", Ezekiel Dror
  • 1995 - "The Scandal And The Shame: Poverty And Underdevelopment" ("The Scandal And The Shame: Poverty And Underdevelopment"), Bertrand Schneider
  • 1995 - "Taking Nature into Account", Van Dieren
  • 1995/96/97/98 - Factor Four: Doubling Wealth, Halving Resource Use (Factor Four: Doubling Wealth, Halving Resource Use), E. Weizsacker, E. Lovins, L. Lovins.
  • 1997/98 - The Limits to Social Cohesion: Conflict & Mediation in Pluralist Societies, Peter Berger
  • 1996/98 - "The Employment Dilemma and the Future of Work", Giarini Orio and Liedtke Patrick
  • 1998 - "The Oceanic Circle: Governing the Seas as a Global Resource", Elisabeth Mann-Borgese
  • 1998 - "Network: How new media will change our lives" ("La Red: Cómo cambiaran nuestras vidas los nuevos medios de comunicación"), Cebrian Juan Luiz
  • 2000 - "Humanity wins" ("Menschlichkeit gewinnt"), Mont Reinhard
  • 2002 - "The Art of Interconnected Thinking", Frederic Vester
  • 2003 - "The Double Helix of Learning and Work", Orio Giarini and Mircea Malica
  • 2004 - "The Limits to Growth: The 30-year Update", D. Meadows and others.
  • 2005 - "The Limits of Privatization: How to Avoid Too Much of the Good?" ("Limits to Privatization: How to Avoid Too Much of a Good Thing"), Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker and others.
  • 2006 - "Essay on Human Growth Theory: The Demographic Revolution and Information society» ("Global Population Blow-Up and After: The demogrphic Recolution And Information Society"), S. P. Kapitza
  • 2009/10 - "The Blue Economy: 10 Years, 100 Innovations, 100 Million Jobs", Gunter Pauli
  • 2010 - "Factor Five: Transforming the Global Economy through 80% Improvements in Resource Productivity", Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker, Charlie Hargroves, Michael H. Smith, Cheryl Desha, Peter Stasinopoulos Earthscan
  • 2012 - "Bankrupting Nature: Denying Our Planetary Boundaries", Anders Wijkman and Johan Rockström
  • 2012 - "2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years" (2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years), Jorgen Randers
  • 2014 - Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth is Plundering the Planet, Ugo Bardi
  • 2015 - Change the Story, Change the Future: A Living Economy for a Living Earth, David Korten
  • 2015 - "On the Edge: The State and Fate of the World's Tropical Rainforests", Claude Martin
  • 2015 - "To Choose Our Future: Development Alternatives", Ashok Khosla
  • 2016 - Reinventing Prosperity: Managing Economic Growth to Reduce Unemployment, Inequality and Climate Change by Graeme Maxton and

  I read excerpts from the latest report of the Club of Rome - “Come On! Capitalism, myopia, population and the destruction of the planet. Article on Aftershock - "Club of Rome, anniversary report: "The Old World is doomed. New world inevitable!" - https://aftershock.news/?q=node/601798&full .

  Most of all, my attention was drawn to the section - The End of Oil and Alternative Energy. Here is a quote from that section:

  “The end of the fossil fuel era is predetermined. It is very likely that it will end faster than previously predicted. The cost of clean (solar and wind) energy is decreasing every year, and its production is increasing many times. Growth in demand for oil will stop by 2020, and if Stanford researcher Tony Seba is right, the transition to renewable sources could happen as early as 2030. Huge deposits of oil and gas will remain in the ground. Lost profits are estimated in the range of six to twenty trillion dollars. The oil and gas sector is becoming a huge bubble that can completely depreciate in a few years. Some analysts and banking structures are already warning clients about the unacceptable risks of investing in such enterprises.

  Think, key phrase here - "The oil and gas sector is becoming a huge bubble that can completely depreciate in a few years."

  I thought for a long time, maybe the report is fake? Could the minds of the Club of Rome have written this? That is, the problem is not in the inflated public debt of the States? No. Maybe in stock quotes driven to the skies? No. Maybe the fact that TseBeshki are pouring into the stock markets? That quite recently was simply unthinkable and was listed as a topic of the most schizophrenic conspiracy theories. No. Cryptocurrencies? No. In the topics listed above, the Club of Rome does not observe bubbles. But the oil and gas sector is one big bubble in trillions.

  To understand any phenomenon, you need to start studying it, from how it appeared, what first steps it took; what idea was laid inside, in the embryo; which external environment was at the time of its appearance. About how the Club of Rome appeared. Here is what the official source of information - Wikipedia - says about the Club of Rome - “The Club of Rome is an international public organization ( analytical center) created by Italian industrialist Aurelio Peccei (who became its first president) and OECD Director General for Science Alexander King on April 6-7, 1968, bringing together representatives of the world's political, financial, cultural and scientific elite.

  Unofficial information gives more details. The decision to establish the Club of Rome was made in the spring of 1968. At a meeting of the most powerful people in the world at the home of David Rockefeller in Bellagio, Italy. The meeting was organized by the Italian industrialist Aurelio Peccei. Who was on the board of Fiat and was vice president of Olivetti. Picchei's mother is Italian. And on the father - Hungarian. That is, the rebellious Magyar spirit was laid in the Club of Rome. Regarding the Hungarian origin and the rebellious spirit of the Magyars, Soros immediately pops up. It would be interesting to see their intersections. And Edward Teller is the "father of the hydrogen bomb", nurtured from his student days by the Rockefellers. Also marked by rebelliousness. Nisvel from the "Olympus" of fame and honor of Robert Oppenheimer, testifying at the trial against the "father of the nuclear bomb."

  And of course, one must take into account (knowing that the founder of the Club of Rome is a Hungarian by father), the eternal genetic Russophobia of the Magyars. They cannot forgive us for 1848-1849. Yes, and 1956, too. But that's another story. Back to the Club of Rome.

  Among the ideologists and fathers of the founders of the Club of Rome include Henry Kissinger. As well as the Morgenthau Group. So called economists, lawyers and politicians who made a plan for the post-war structure of Germany, under the leadership of Hans Morgenthau. The plan involved the destruction of Germany's heavy industry, the decentralization of finance, the destruction of vertically integrated companies, the transfer of Germans from an industrial to an agricultural nation. And one way or another gave a target for reducing the population by 25 million people. The plan was not adopted in its entirety. By different reasons. Our intelligence also had a hand in this. But that's a completely different story. And about her another time.

  And I paid attention to the Morgenthau Group in connection with the creation and filling of the ideologies of the Club of Rome for the following reason. The theme of the need to reduce the population will become one of the main ones in the ideology of the Club of Rome.

  In general, it is interesting that almost all the founding fathers of the club have roots in Germany. Both Hans Morgenthau and Henry Kissinger were born in Germany. The Rockefeller family also has German roots. The current co-chairman of the Club of Rome is Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker. Also from Germany. From a famous family whose members are: former German President Richard von Weizsäcker, nuclear physicist Karl Friedrich von Weizsäcker (one of the leading scientists of the Third Reich Uranium Project, associate of Werner Heisenberg), Secretary of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ernst von Weizsäcker (then is in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Third Reich was the second leader in the official hierarchy after Ribbentrop) one of the ideologists of the Munich Agreement. There is something to think about in this regard. I'm talking about the German roots of the founders.

  And further. It turns out that the current co-chairman of the Club of Rome, Ernst Ulrich von Weizsacker, is of a very difficult origin. By the way, he is also a co-author of the report – “Come On! Capitalism, myopia, population and the destruction of the planet.

  According to conspiracy theorists, the decisions of the club should have been aimed at establishing a New World Order with a World Government at the head.

  The club includes about a hundred of the world's most influential capitalists, economists and scientists. And the Club of Rome, along with the Bilderberg Club, is the main foreign policy lever of the Secret World Government, which is represented and designated in the media either by the "Committee of 300" or by the "Round Table". The first name makes me associate with three hundred Spartans. And the second, in my opinion, is a clear reference to King Arthur.

  And here it is interesting that not so long ago documentaries were released on the "educational" Anglo-Saxon channels. Where seemingly serious scientists seem to be quite seriously engaged in archaeological searches for Avalon, King Arthur's palace and the knightly round table. What is it for?

  Regarding the first steps, one should look at the report of the Club of Rome forty-six years ago. A report that outlined the contours of a real challenge for the World. First report of the Club of Rome.

  In 1972, the Club of Rome presented a report by American analyst Dennis Meadows, The Limits to Growth. In my opinion, the key message of this report is that the population is growing, consumption is increasing, and resources are running out. And soon they will reach their peak. At the same time, Dennis Medoz himself said that - "Oil is the most limited of the key fossil fuels." And the founder of the Club of Rome, Aurelio Peccei, commented on the report: “While the current growth trends continue in a finite planet, the next generations of humanity will reach the limits of demographic and economic expansion, which will lead the system as a whole to an uncontrollable crisis and collapse.”

  “The conclusions made by the authors made us think about the future of the Earth. According to the forecast of D. Meadows and his colleagues, humanity was confidently moving towards a catastrophe, which could not be avoided only by taking measures to limit and regulate the growth of production and change the criteria for progress. The book warned that material growth could not continue indefinitely on a physically finite planet, and demanded that the increase in quantity (growth) be abandoned in favor of quality (development).” This is a commentary on the report by Meadows, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Professor GA Yagodin and Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Professor NP Tarasov.

  Now about external factors - the environment in which the Club of Rome took its first steps. And this is the time at which the report was made public. On March 13, 1972, in Washington, DC, the Smithsonian Institution presented its first paper entitled The Limits to Growth. Report to the Club of Rome.

  And on August 13, 1971, Nixon held a secret meeting at which it was decided to abandon the peg of the dollar to gold. And the refusal to exchange dollars for gold. Then it was decided to increase the money supply through the printing press.

  At the same time, the Nixon administration reaches an agreement with Saudi Arabia - to sell oil only for dollars. Here again, Henry Kissinger. It is he who, using carrots and sticks, threats and ambassadors, is trying to get the Saudis to decide what the United States needs. Moreover, King Faisal ibn Abdul-Aziz Al Saud is helping Kissinger persuade OPEC member countries to switch to dollars. Decoupled the dollar from gold. They tied the dollar to oil. The printing press can be turned on.

  In the course of these negotiations, Kissinger also bargains a lot for the Rockefeller clan from Arabia.

  And seven months later, as I indicated above, on March 13, 1972, the report of the Club of Rome comes out. Resources are depleted. A main resource- oil. That is, as it is impossible, by the way. It turns out that the report had a certain opportunism. However, it was long term. And this, firstly. And secondly, it was based on objective data and prerequisites.

  Of course, we can say that the preparation of the report began in the summer of 1970. But the decision to decouple the dollar from gold and end the Bretton Woods system did not come overnight.

  But this is 1972. Maybe now the opinion of the compilers of the report has changed? No.

  In April 2012, in the magazine "Expert" an article "It will not seem enough" was published. This is an interview with Dennis Meadows. Here are some quotes from this article:

  “Now I will show you a graph that shows the time range from 1930 to the present moment, to 2010, and then a forecast estimate. On it, all really explored reserves are marked in green - that is, what was accurately confirmed by sampling and drilling. So, all available oil is the integral under this green curve (the area of ​​everything that is in the green area). The black curve shows the actual oil production. And already in 1984, for the first time, the total annual volume of oil produced exceeded the volume of new explored deposits.

  Moreover, since 1984, more oil has been pumped out each year than new proven reserves have been discovered.”

  “Of course, it’s stupid to argue with this thesis, but let’s ask again: why are you talking so confidently about a 50% drop in production by the beginning of the 2030s?

  In response, I will repeat myself: this is not my own estimate, so maybe not 50, but 20 percent will turn out in the end, but maybe all 60. But what I am sure of for sure is that that the oil production curve will soon go down, not up. Here I have no doubts. And on the graph that I showed you, you can literally see with the naked eye: the gap between the produced and explored oil is already so large that even by increasing the return from other energy sectors, this fall will not be fully compensated for.”

  And here is the conclusion that Expert magazine sums up based on the results of the interview - “The peak of world oil production has already been passed, and the peak of gas production will soon be passed. There is no hope for alternative energy sources, because it takes decades and a huge amount of non-renewable resources to launch them.”

  Expert - http://expert.ru/expert/2012/16/malo-ne-pokazhetsya/

  Now some conclusions. First. The Club of Rome is a serious organization. Analytical center of semi-explicit, semi-behind-the-scenes rulers of the world. And the mouthpiece that sets the agenda for the elites writes and announces publicly a guide to action.

  Second. The co-chairman of the Club of Rome and the co-author of the report under review comes from a very representative family. This, of course, does not guarantee anything. But anyway. And his previous works did not break away from reality.

  Third. In an interview with Expert magazine, Dennis Meadows talks about the failure of oil production by 2030. And in the report - “Come On! Capitalism, short-sightedness, population and the destruction of the planet" says - "Growth in demand for oil will stop by 2020, and if Stanford researcher Tony Seba is right, the transition to renewable sources could happen as early as 2030." And the connection between these dates is obvious. The author of the first report of the Club of Rome believes that global problems with energy resources will happen by the year 30. And to be blunt, by this time the energy carrier will become more expensive than gold. And the authors of the current report - "The oil and gas sector is becoming a huge bubble that can completely depreciate in a few years."

  Hence the fourth. About the first report of the Club of Rome, Wikipedia writes the following - “the Forrester-Meadows model was given the status of the first report of the Club of Rome. The report "The Limits to Growth" marked the beginning of a number of reports of the Club, in which issues related to economic growth, development, learning, the consequences of the use of new technologies, and global thinking were deeply developed. That is, this report became the basis for the work of the Club of Rome for forty-six years. Defined - global thinking. This 2017 report breaks the old ground. It marks, frankly denotes a departure from the basic principle - with a drop in energy production, the world is in for a catastrophe. Dennis Meadows isn't so blunt about this. He says that - "the world will roll back." But back - how many years? Or decades? Or centuries? In the nineteenth century? Or straight into the tenth?

  Hence the fifth. The first report of the Club of Rome marked a turning point. On steamships from Europe stuffed with shredded green paper with a demand to return these steamships stuffed with gold, and the loss-catastrophe of Vietnam, America reacted by refusing to guarantee the dollar in gold and jumping off the Bretton Woods system. And that started a chain of events. The Bretton Woods system is not just the organization of monetary relations and trade settlements. This is also the Keynesian model of economics. The chain of events rushed towards monetarism. Then Milton Friedman, "Chicago Boys", Raygonomics, post-industrialism, politics on the debt load of everything and everything .... In general, something began, the results of which the world has already begun to reap. It was what we are now in.

  Hence the sixth. The first report of the Club of Rome came out against the backdrop of upheavals among the indigenous. And partly as a reaction to them. Rejection of gold as a guarantor of the world currency. A departure from Keynesian economics. Loss of face and respect by the main country Western world after the failure in Vietnam. And so on and so forth. And hence the question? Is the current report the reaction of the World elite to the events that have already taken place, or are shocks just ahead?

  And the seventh. To the statement in the report - “Huge deposits of oil and gas will remain in the ground. Lost profits are estimated in the range of six to twenty trillion dollars. The oil and gas sector is becoming a huge bubble that could completely depreciate in a few years.” In general, the terminology and turns of speech from the yellow press - "huge deposits", "huge bubble", "will remain in the ground", "will depreciate in a few years." And especially about the range - "from six to twenty trillion dollars." Then they are counting on a change in the GDP of each country and the whole World, fifty years ahead. Broken down by year. And with almost accuracy to the third digit after the decimal point. That gives such a gigantic range of losses for asset holders in the "oil and gas bubble", from six to twenty trillion. In such a most important, blood-blood sector!

  The numbers of losses are frighteningly gigantic. Trillions! The figures are announced without regret. So I remember a comic, and maybe a real (who knows?) story about Suvorov. When he was compiling a report for the Empress about the killed enemies. To a surprised question, and not how many dead enemy soldiers he pointed out, Suvorov replied - “Why feel sorry for their adversaries?”.

  But maybe we do not know something that the members of the Club of Rome and their curators know? I'll try the options why the Club of Rome draws such conclusions. Maybe already open - "Thermoyad". And somewhere in silence, top secrecy and protection of something, like the Manhattan Project, industrial installations are already being made? And now the sockets are connected to them. And the happy hipsters will finally be right. Electricity is taken from the socket! But of course it's humor.

  And now about the serious. I said above that the Club of Rome and its founding fathers are delusional, they dream of reducing the population. And maybe they know the reason why something terrible will happen by 2030. And the population will remain so much that really - "Huge deposits of oil and gas will remain in the ground." It's just that there will be so many people that six to twenty trillion dollars won't need oil and gas. Maybe a few billion-million will not be required? And what will the remaining population need already somewhere in the vaults? Carefully disguised as gigantic neutrino research facilities?

  Eighth. Or RK powders the brain. On the one hand, take your eyes off the real problems of "bubbles". Either it acts opportunistically - a reaction to rising oil prices, and this is a source of happiness for Russia. And China is moving in settlements with Saudi Arabia in yuan. That is, we do not need to declare it. Some oil for some yuan. It will not be required by 2030 anyway. At all. Gold is black.

  I don't even know which is worse. The transformation of the RK into a tabloid for draining the necessary information with a momentary result. Or puddling the brain, diverting from real problems-bubbles. Which, however, is also momentary.

  Or maybe what the impure is not joking about is the frank and public recognition by the World elite, the World rulers that they are not able to see and identify real problems. And from here to give adequate advice to the satraps. That is, it is not capable of essentially managing the World. Then it turns out that they threw out the White Flag?

  Roman Klepakov

  
  

  What questions does the world elite think about? The leaders of the "Club of Rome" and its leading experts have come to an unambiguous conclusion about the inevitability of a radical change in the paradigm of the development of our civilization. Harsh criticism of capitalism, rejection of financial speculation, rejection of materialism and a simplified understanding of the world, a call for an alternative economy, a "new Enlightenment", spiritual and moral ...