Ria rating. Quantitative analysis of the ICO market

"I cited figures from which it was possible to see that in Russia, mainly state-owned companies, their subsidiaries, as well as numerous budget institutions, which together control 70% of the Russian economy. They are mainly a source of replenishment of the budget of the Russian Federation. Individuals in the Russian Federation form approximately 10% of the budget, while in the US this share is approximately 64%.

Below we will see how the capitalization of the most expensive Russian companies has changed in recent years:

*h-private company

I included ALROSA, the Moscow Exchange, the Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port as public-private companies.

As can be seen from the table, from 2014 to 2017, the capitalization of state-owned companies in $ increased by an average of 207.18%, and private ones by 85.09%.

1. KLA - 1279.15%
2. Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port - 585.75%
3. Tinkoff Bank - 490.93%
4. "Aeroflot - Russian Airlines" - 326.69%
5. Sberbank - 307.83%
6. MMK - 293.65%
7. FGC UES - 260.23%
8. Pole - 209.82%
9. X5 Retail Group - 202.10%
10. Rosseti - 134.20%
11. Yandex - 121.64%
12. NLMK - 121.56%
13. Akron Group - 105.04%
14. Tatneft - 99.85%
15. VSMPO-Avisma Corporation - 97.38%
16. Mail.ru Group - 86.73%
17. Bashneft - 78.44%
18. Moscow Exchange - 75.35%
19. Severstal - 75.27%
20. Gazprom Neft - 69.80%
21. PIK Group - 65.39%
22. EVRAZ - 61.57%
23. MTS - 51.93%
24. NOVATEK - 50.97%
25. RusHydro - 48.85%
26. Lukoil - 46.13%
27. PhosAgro - 45.62%
28. Rosneft - 44.93%
29. Polymetal 41.26%
30. Norilsk Nickel - 28.52%
31. ALROSA - 17.71%
32. Surgutneftegaz - 13.70%
33. RUSAL - 4.76%

UAC became the fastest growing company. Apparently this was facilitated by the introduction of advanced technologies industrial production. For example, the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) has implemented the concept of a virtual design bureau, when engineers from several design bureaus and production sites work on designing an aircraft model in a single digital environment.

Apple shares are up 70% since the start of 2019. This is the most significant percentage increase among similar companies. Capitalization has grown strongly, despite the decline in iPhone sales

Apple's market value exceeded the combined capitalization of all oil and gas companies USA. At the time of writing, Apple is worth $1.19 trillion. companies included in the S&P 500 Energy index is $1.1 trillion.

The S&P 500 Energy index includes 28 US oil and gas companies, including Apache, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Schlumberger and many others.

Since the beginning of the year, Apple quotes have added 70%. The company was the leader in terms of growth among the participants of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. At the same time, the smartphone manufacturer managed to overtake Microsoft: in 2019, Bill Gates' company has risen in price by 50%, being in second place.

Apple's capitalization for the first time exceeded $1 trillion on August 2, 2018. On that day, the shares of the iPhone manufacturer rose to $207.39. Apple managed to gain a foothold above $ 1 trillion recently - in September 2019.

In 2020, we should expect further growth in Apple shares, analysts are sure. In their opinion, the slowdown in iPhone sales growth will not greatly affect the company's results: instead, quotes will support the new revenue models that Apple has come up with. First of all we are talking about services.

Apple has already managed to get iPhone owners to pay for services like Apple Music and Apple TV+. In the most recent quarter, services revenue at Apple rose 18% while device sales declined. Now revenues in this area account for just under 20% of Apple's total sales.

Judging by the comments of profile experts, expectations for the segment of iPhone smartphones are low. "Apple will continue to focus on services and installed base growth," said Citigroup analyst Jim Suva.

Citigroup has a price target for Apple shares from $250 to $300 a share. The financial company recommends buying securities. According to Jim Suva, AirPods wireless headphones and Apple Watch smartwatches will provide Apple with strong sales and profits during the holiday season. JP Morgan predicts that over the year's horizon, Apple shares will rise by 11% to $296 per share.

“We believe that the consensus underestimates the demand for Apple Watch and Apple AirPods,” Jim Suva explained his expectations. Wearables sales are likely to top $10 billion this quarter, Citi predicted.

Not all experts are as positive about the future of Apple. Maxim Group analyst Nehal Chokshi doubts that the tech giant will be able to receive further high income from services. In his opinion, buyers may prefer Android, abandoning the iPhone due to a growing portfolio of paid services.

Plans to switch to Android were reported by 9% of people who were surveyed this year in the Maxim Group. In 2017, 5% answered yes to a similar question. Perhaps this is not so much. But, according to Choksha, this is enough to refute the optimists' argument that the iPhone user will remain an iPhone user for the foreseeable future, and a growing portfolio of services will boost sales.

The analyst's target price for Apple is $190 per share, one of the lowest on the market. It assumes a reduction in the price of shares by 29% in the coming year. Some subject matter experts included in the Refinitiv consensus seem to agree with Maxim Group's arguments.

The consensus forecast is for Apple shares to decline by 2% over the year horizon, to $261.63 per share. 26 people surveyed by Refinitiv recommend buying the tech giant's stock. Another 13 respondents believe that the paper is worth holding, four are advised to sell.

You can right now on RBC Quote. The project was implemented jointly with VTB Bank.

To assess the changes that have taken place among Russian issuers and on the Russian stock market as a whole, the experts of the RIA Rating agency prepared the next annual, fifth in a row, Rating of the 100 most expensive public companies in Russia as of the beginning of 2018.

The main ruble index (Moscow Exchange) fell by 5.5% over the year, while the dollar index (RTS) grew by only 0.2%. Nevertheless, despite the decline in the index, among the largest companies by capitalization, the majority showed an increase in quotations in 2017. According to the rating, the total capitalization of the TOP-100 Russian companies over the past year increased by 1.3% or $8.4 billion to $643 billion as of December 29, 2017. For comparison, in 2016 the growth was much higher - +58% or +233 billion dollars. The median capitalization of the Russian 100 public companies did not change and amounted to $1.8-1.9 billion. In turn, the minimum capitalization size with which one could get into the top 100 most expensive companies at the end of 2017, amounted to 318 million dollars, against 267 million dollars in the last year's ranking and 157 as of December 31, 2015. (Thus, the lower bar for entering the top 100 most valuable companies in Russia has doubled in two years.

The top ten, according to the rating, also includes the following companies: Sberbank, Gazprom, Rosneft, LUKOIL, NOVATEK, Norilsk Nickel, Gazprom Neft, Tatneft, Surgutneftegaz and NLMK. It is worth noting that two companies at once left the TOP-10 at the end of the year, and, accordingly, two newcomers are in the top ten. Magnit and VTB Bank left the top ten largest companies in Russia by capitalization.

Among the 100 most valuable companies, market capitalization in 2017 increased for 55, which is significantly less than last year's result (91 companies). Ingrad development company became the leader in terms of market capitalization growth among the TOP-100 companies in 2017. The capitalization of this company during the year increased by more than 8 times. The second company in terms of growth rates was Lenenergo, whose capitalization increased by 4.7 times, which is also mainly due to the additional issue. In general, in 5 companies, capitalization growth in 2017 was multiple, which in most cases was due to additional issues. For comparison, in 2016, 25 companies showed a multiple increase in capitalization, which was most often determined by the dynamics of shares.

The largest decrease in capitalization in 2017 among the companies included in the rating was demonstrated by the financial sector company FG "Future". AFK Sistema, Magnit, Bashneft, VTB Bank, Nizhnekamskneftekhim, Lenta, Chelyabinsk Zinc Plant, Rusagro, Uralkali and Polyus were also among the companies with a significant decrease in market capitalization.

RIA Rating is a universal rating agency of the media group MIA "Russia Today" specializing in assessing the socio-economic situation of the regions of the Russian Federation, the economic condition of companies, banks, economic sectors, countries. The main activities of the agency are: the creation of ratings of regions of the Russian Federation, banks, enterprises, municipalities, insurance companies, securities, other economic objects; complex economic research in the financial, corporate and government sectors.

MIA "Russia Today" - an international media group whose mission is prompt, balanced and objective coverage of events in the world, informing the audience about different views on key events. RIA Rating as part of MIA Rossiya Segodnya is included in the line information resources agencies, including: RIA News , R-Sport , RIA Real Estate , Prime , InoSMI. MIA Rossiya Segodnya is the leader in terms of citation among the Russian media and is increasing the citation of its brands abroad. The agency also occupies a leading position in terms of citation in Russian in social networks and the blogosphere.

Having some cash savings, each of us thinks about how not only to save this amount, but also to make a profit. One of profitable options investment of funds - a deposit bank deposit.

This option of investing funds does not require the active participation of the depositor in the fate of the deposit and involves receiving good income by percentage. An option such as capitalization will help increase the profitability of the deposit.

This term is understood as the automatic addition of interest on the deposit to the principal amount at certain time intervals. In the future, interest is accrued on the increased amount.

Today it is not easy to choose a deposit program among dozens of banking offers, especially if the potential depositor does not have special knowledge in the financial sector. In our article, we will try to figure out how profitable the capitalization of the deposit is and when it is better not to choose this option.

What is capitalization?

The capitalization of a deposit is its periodic increase by adding interest already accrued. Interest on capitalization can be added to the principal amount of the deposit once a year, quarterly, monthly or even every day.

The more often this happens, the greater the benefit to the investor. This is due to the fact that the next amount of interest will no longer be accrued from the “bare” amount of the deposit, but from the amount + the previous accrued interest.

Accordingly, each time, the amount of accrued interest increases in proportion to the increase in the amount in the bank account.

This deposit option allows the client to accumulate money in the account faster, but usually does not imply the ability to withdraw interest or partially the principal amount of the deposit before the expiration date specified in the bank agreement. This is the main feature of deposits with capitalization - they are beneficial when the depositor does not plan to withdraw funds in the near future.

Compound interest formula

The capitalization of deposits in the banking sector is also called compound interest on a deposit. The formula for calculating compound interest looks like this:

• FV- the future amount of the deposit;
• PV– today's deposit amount;
• R- interest rate on the deposit;
• n- the number of periods in which the capitalization of the deposit is made.

How to calculate interest on a deposit with capitalization?

To understand what capitalization of a deposit is and how interest is calculated, it is necessary to compare the conditions of a simple bank deposit and programs with capitalization.

The classic deposit assumes that interest on it will be accrued at the end of the period for which it was issued. For example, if a depositor places 100,000 rubles at 10% per year, at the end of the year he will receive 110,000 rubles. The net profit for the investor in this case will be 10,000 rubles. The calculation of the return on the deposit will be calculated according to the formula:

100,000 + 100,000 x 0.1 \u003d 110,000 rubles

If we assume that the depositor withdraws only interest, and leaves the principal amount on deposit for three years, it is obvious that his profit will be 30,000 rubles.

If the deposit provides for the capitalization option, the formula will contain an additional parameter - the number of capitalization periods. For the monthly capitalization of the deposit, this parameter will be equal to 12 (the number of months in a year). In this case, the return on the deposit for 3 years will be calculated using the following formula:

100,000 x (1 + 0.1 / 12) 12 * 3 \u003d 134,818.2 rubles

This means that the net profit of the depositor on the same deposit with capitalization will be 34,818.2 rubles, which is obviously more than in the first option. As the amount of the deposit and the period of keeping funds on the deposit increase, the difference between the return on the classic deposit and the program with capitalization will also grow in favor of the second one.

Types of capitalization of deposits

Depending on how often interest is added to the principal amount of the deposit, capitalization is divided into the following types:

• annual;
• quarterly;
• monthly;
• daily, etc.

Purely theoretically, capitalization can be hourly, minutely and even every second. However, Russian banks today are not ready to offer even daily capitalization, due to the difficulties of servicing such a deposit. Most often, clients are offered annual, quarterly and monthly interest capitalization.

Increasing the contribution with annual capitalization

Let's take an illustrative example. Let's say the amount of the deposit is 30,000 rubles. The interest rate on the deposit is 8%. To calculate the amount of annual capitalization, we use the formula:

For the year: 30,000*(1.08) = 32,400 rubles

Accordingly, net income will be 2,400 rubles. If we apply this formula to two and, respectively, three years of annual capitalization, we get the following figures:

For two years: 30,000*(1.08)(1.08) = 34,992 rubles

For three years: 30,000*(1.08)(1.08)(1.08) = 37,791 rubles

Thus, using the annual capitalization scheme, the return on a deposit in the amount of 30 thousand rubles at 8% will be 7,791 rubles.

Increasing the contribution with quarterly capitalization

If we consider the same example with quarterly capitalization and use the formula presented above, it becomes obvious that the profit will be calculated as follows:

For the year: 30,000* (1+0.08/3) 3*1 = 32,464 rubles

For two years: 30,000* (1+0.08/3) 3*2 = 35,131 rubles

For three years: 30,000* (1+0.08/3) 3*3 = 38,017 rubles

It is obvious that the quarterly capitalization is more profitable, in comparison with the annual scheme of adding interest.

Increasing the deposit with monthly capitalization

Now let's consider this example if capitalization on the deposit will be made every month. A simple calculation will present the following indicators of the profitability of the deposit:

For the year: 30,000* (1+0.08/12) 12*1 = 32,490 rubles

For two years: 30,000* (1+0.08/12) 12*2 = 35,214 rubles

For three years: 30,000* (1+0.08/12) 12*3 = 38,107 rubles

This option becomes even more beneficial for the bank client. Accordingly, the more often capitalization occurs, the more profitable this option of the deposit program is for the client.

Continuous capitalization

Based on the fact that frequent capitalization is beneficial for the investor, experts have developed a formula for continuous capitalization. It allows you to calculate the maximum possible profit on a deposit with capitalization, if this process is carried out continuously. The formula looks like this:

• FV- the future amount of the deposit;
• PV– today's deposit amount;
• e= 2.7183 (exponent);
• r- nominal interest rate;
• n- number of years.

If we substitute the parameters of our example into this formula, where the amount of the initial deposit is 30,000 rubles, and the annual percentage is set at 8%, we get the following return on a deposit with continuous capitalization:

30.000 * 2.7183 0.08 * 3 \u003d 30.000 * 2.7183 * 0.24 \u003d 38,137 rubles

This formula demonstrates that continuous capitalization is the most profitable option for the investor. It is not yet possible to find such offers in Russian banks, but most likely in the future this formula can also be used in the formation of new deposit programs.

What is the effective interest rate?

The effective interest rate is an indicator that is calculated for deposits with capitalization in order to compare them with the conditions of classic deposit programs.

So, for example, the interest rate on a deposit without capitalization in our example is 8%. If we consider the option with monthly capitalization, it was previously calculated that 32,490 rubles would be accumulated in the account over the year.

To calculate the effective interest rate, we divide this indicator by the principal amount of the deposit:

30 000/ 32 490 = 1,083

Accordingly, the effective interest rate on a deposit with monthly capitalization will be 8.3%, which is obviously higher than the 8% offered on a standard deposit. When calculating, it should be understood that due to the capitalization of the deposit, the effective rate is always higher than the nominal one.

Top offers of leading Russian banks

Choosing the most profitable deposit program, the depositor should pay attention to the tricks of banks. So, more profitable deposits with capitalization usually have a lower percentage.

For example, if a regular deposit is offered by a bank at 10.5% per annum, and a deposit with a capitalization at 10%, the benefit from the capitalization option is nullified.

A year later, the client will receive the same amounts on both deposits, but the regular deposit program will allow him to regularly withdraw interest and withdraw funds, while a deposit with capitalization usually does not provide for such opportunities.

Leading Russian banks in 2019 offer the following conditions for deposits with capitalization:

• Sberbank. This bank offers a huge variety of deposit programs. Minimum size a deposit in Sberbank is only 1,000 rubles, and the term starts from six months. The interest rate for deposits with capitalization is relatively low - up to 8.1%.
• Summer Bank. A very profitable program with monthly capitalization in Leto Bank is the Capital deposit. The amount of such a contribution lies in the range of 5,000–1,500,000 rubles, and the rate ranges from 9.7 to 10.36%.
• Alfa Bank. Alfa-Bank's deposits most in demand were Pobeda and Liniya Zhizni. These programs provide for monthly capitalization and offer interest rates of 10.25% and 9.8% respectively. The maximum term for placing funds under such deposit programs is 3 years.
• Home Credit Bank. This bank offers three profitable programs with monthly capitalization - "Profitable Year", "Maximum Income", "Pension". Interest on such deposits ranges from 8% to 8.75% per annum, and the maximum term for placing money is three years. Home Credit Bank also offers the "Capital" deposit, in which the regularity of interest accrual is determined by the depositor himself.
• UniCredit Bank. This bank offers two profitable products with monthly capitalization - "For Friends" (only new bank customers can open) and PRIME (for holders of a premium service package). Interest rates range from 6.50% to 9.00%. The advantages of this bank are that for many years it has been in the TOP-10 in terms of reliability according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

Deposits with capitalization of interest on the modern Russian market banking services are not uncommon. Choosing such a deposit, the client must understand that it will be possible to feel all its benefits only if cash he won't need it anytime soon.

Apple or Google: which company will be the first to be valued at $1 trillion

Apple: at the finish line

Closest to the cherished mark of a trillion crept up Apple, whose capitalization on February 6 is estimated at more than $821 billion. The company reported an all-time record revenue of $88.3 billion in the December quarter - up 13% year-over-year and over $20 billion. net profit, which is 12% more than the result of 2016 and higher than analysts' forecasts.

Apple previously said it would pay $38 billion in taxes on overseas assets. However, the payment will be for the current year, and therefore this did not affect the profit for the quarter. At the same time, the company's cash flow reached a record $285 billion.

The key issue for the report for the quarter that ended on December 30 was the dynamics of iPhone sales. In early November 2017, the iPhone X hit the market, and Apple's risky bet on a $1,000-plus flagship smartphone could work both for and against the company.

The results were predictable: Apple sold 1% fewer devices than in the same period in 2016, but iPhone revenue was 13% higher thanks to a higher average price.

According to Apple CEO Tim Cook, the iPhone X has been the company's best-selling smartphone since it hit the market in November. iPad sales increased by 6%, but in the Mac segment, revenue decreased by 5%.

The total number of activated devices of the company exceeded 1.3 billion.

Active growth - by 13% - was again observed in sales of services (App Store, Apple Music, Apple Pay, etc.). In "other products", which the company refers to as Apple Watch, revenue increased by 36%. In the same segment, Apple will report on sales of the Homepod smart speaker, which it launches on the market in February.

However, the company's conservative forecast for the current quarter disappointed investors. Revenue expectations of $60 to $62 billion came in below market expectations of $65.44 billion. Against this backdrop, the company's shares are trading around $160 per share - at the level of mid-October. If this trend continues for the entire quarter, it will slow down the implementation of Apple's trillion-dollar ambitions.

Google: in catching up

Apple's closest competitor is its main competitor in the mobile market, Alphabet (Google's parent company). The company, with a current capitalization of $736.7 billion, has shown less stock volatility than Apple over the past five years. However, the results of the fourth quarter of 2017 hit Alphabet quotes - and here's why.

The company reported revenue growth of 24% year-over-year to $32.3 billion, higher than market forecasts. But under the influence of the new tax law, the company lost about $9.9 billion in net profit. As a result, Alphabet's quarterly net loss was over $3 billion.

Immediately after the announcement, class A shares lost about 4% of their value and continue to decline. It was not only the lower-than-expected results of operating profit that affected, but also the size of investments in. The company also disclosed its cloud services revenue for the first time - Google Cloud and G-Suite generated $1 billion in the quarter, five times lower than Amazon's AWS results, for example.

At the same time, Google's rising ad revenue (up 21.5% QoQ), dominance in the search market, and long-term investments in innovative projects, including self-driving cars, keep the company on the list of top contenders for trillion capitalization.

Microsoft: silent glanders

Against the backdrop of flashy announcements and announcements from other tech giants, Microsoft remained slightly in the shadows in 2017. However, under the leadership of Satya Nadella, the company managed to build a strong b2b vertical and increase the value of the shares by more than 46% in a year. Now the company's capitalization is estimated at $ 691.9 billion - for a trillion, you need to repeat the result.

For October-December 2017, the company reported revenue of $28.9 billion, almost $12 billion more than a year earlier and higher than market forecasts. However, the net loss amounted to $6.3 billion - tax payments of $13.8 billion affected. Excluding the tax burden, operating profit grew by 10%.

The largest segment - consumer products - grew by only 2% to $12.2 billion. The largest growth was recorded in gaming business- thanks to the Xbox One X, the company increased revenue here by 8%.

In the segment of solutions for productive work, where Office and LinkedIn are flagships, revenue grew 25% to $9 billion.

"Cloud" solutions brought the company $7.8 billion - 15% higher compared to the previous year.

On the way to the trillion Microsoft will have to overcome the image of the "pursuer". During the conference call, questions arose about how the company intends to compete with the Sony Playstation in the number of exclusive games available, and with Amazon Alexa in the popularity of its Cortana service.

Amazon: breakthrough of the year

Looking at how companies started in 2018, Amazon is leading so far. Over the past month, the company's shares have added almost 17%, and the capitalization of $683.8 billion has come close to Microsoft. If the company manages to maintain momentum until the end of the year, then it has every chance to become a leader.

For the fourth quarter of 2017, Amazon reported a 38% increase in revenue to $60.5 billion. Unlike Google and Microsoft, Amazon also reported a net profit for the quarter of $1.86 billion - 2.5 times higher than last year's result.

Of course, unlike "colleagues", the specifics of Amazon's business, like other online retailers, implies super-successful sales.

However, in addition to "better than expected" (according to the company) sales of Amazon Alexa-powered smart speakers, Amazon's cloud services division saw a big jump in revenue.

Revenue in this segment grew from $3.5 billion in the December quarter of 2016 to $5.1 billion in 2017.

Amazon calls the negative impact of the new taxation on its business "negligible." At the same time, the company included $789 million in its financial report for the quarter, which it won by reducing the federal corporate tax rate. In addition, about 62% of Amazon's sales come from the US - by comparison, Apple receives 65% from abroad.

: on the halfway

Finally, the most implicit trillion contender among technology companies is . The company's current capitalization of $528.9 billion needs to be almost doubled.

Is it possible? In quarterly results, it reported a 47% increase in revenue to $12.97 billion and a 20% increase in net profit to $4.27 billion.

The company noted that due to the new tax, an additional $2.27 billion in taxes had to be paid in 2017, which affected the results of both the quarter and the whole year.

Despite the end of the quarter "in the black", it unpleasantly surprised investors. The time that users spend daily on the social network has decreased by 5% or 50 million hours: the new policy on viral videos has affected. In addition, it lost some users in the US and Canada.

Positives include a 43% increase in ad rates and the fact that 89% of ad revenue is generated by mobile. As a reserve, we have divisions with minimal monetization: WhatsApp, Oculus, Instagram. And the head of the company Mark Zuckerberg previously promised to look towards cryptocurrencies, although specific plans not yet announced.

Of course, it's not just tech companies that are in the race to the trillion. However, their leadership in the list of the most valuable companies and the sharp ups and downs in this particular segment make it so exciting to watch.

Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization and New Opportunities

In the article “Change in the rate of cryptocurrencies: causes and factors”, we have already considered the general reasons for fluctuations in the rate of bitcoin and the rates of other cryptocurrencies (altcoins), for example, LTC and ETH.

Now, having studied the events of 2017, let's take an interest in what trends particularly strongly determined their courses in practice.

Having dealt with the events that contributed to the success of cryptocurrencies in 2017 in more detail, we will analyze what additional factors may contribute to the rise in prices for cryptocurrencies this year.

On December 13, 2017, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market crossed the historical mark of $500 billion, and at the beginning of 2018, this indicator of the market volume continued to grow and exceeded $700 billion. At the time of writing, there was a correction, the trends in the market are clearly visible in the charts below.

The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and its changes in the period from January 2017 to January 2018 is shown in Chart 1.

Reasons for the growth of cryptocurrency market capitalization in 2017

The total capitalization of all cryptocurrencies from mid-October to mid-December 2017 more than tripled. A significant rise in prices for cryptocurrencies was predicted in advance, and it is not difficult to identify its reasons after the fact. According to experts, many of these reasons will remain relevant in 2018.

Growing general interest in cryptocurrencies

Indeed, the general increase in interest in bitcoin, the increase in confidence in it on the part of large investors, not only quite naturally led to an increase in the rate of BTC itself; it also improved the position of other dominant cryptocurrencies. It can be said that in terms of reputation, bitcoin, as the dominant cryptocurrency, pulled other altcoins with it like a locomotive, thus increasing their exchange rate and contributing to the growth of capitalization.

Involvement in the cryptocurrency market of large corporations

The immediate improvement of the business climate, including around the most promising altcoins, has been and remains important for the popularization of cryptocurrencies. Thus, the news about the establishment of partnerships between Microsoft Corporation and the Ethereum Foundation led to an immediate increase in the quotes of the ETH cryptocurrency.

Increasing the role of cryptocurrencies in various sectors of the economy

Improving the software mechanisms of bitcoin and, especially, altcoins, endowing them with new functions and expanding their role in the banking sector and other sectors of the economy - all these factors also contributed to the rise in the price of cryptocurrencies and further growth in demand for them. Thus, the successful introduction of the SegWit update on Litecoin in the spring of 2017 led to an increase in the price of this asset by 6-7 times only in the spring months (the rate growth continued later).

Increasing confidence in cryptocurrencies and opportunities to use blockchain technology

Blockchain technology, which is the basis of cryptocurrencies and, first of all, bitcoin, is becoming more and more widespread in the world. The possibilities of applying this technology in practice are expanding; its uniqueness and importance for the development of the IT sector have been recognized at the state level in many countries.

Thanks to this, blockchain technology began to be used in state and international projects in 2017. The “technology of the future”, as blockchain is often called, according to many analysts, will become the basis for global business.

Such trends, of course, also increase the level of trust in cryptocurrencies, which have become a vivid example of the implementation of blockchain technology in practice.

Exit of cryptocurrencies to traditional exchanges

The increase in the “legality” of cryptocurrencies, increased confidence in them from regulators, and Bitcoin’s entry into traditional exchanges also contributed to strengthening the position of altcoins.

To learn more about what a futures contract is and why exactly it became the basis for BTC entering the global stock markets, read the article by EXMO experts “Bitcoin futures: what is the point?”. The advantages and disadvantages of bitcoin futures can be found in the material "Bitcoin futures: features and prospects".

Entry into the market of large investors and speculative influences

In 2017, large investors showed great interest in buying cryptocurrencies, which stimulated the growth of the rates of the most popular coins, primarily bitcoin. The speculative component of price growth also took place in the past year - it was signaled by periods of particularly rapid price growth for many cryptocurrencies.

Depending on the behavior of major players on cryptocurrency exchanges and a number of other factors, the rates of leading cryptocurrencies may stabilize in the foreseeable future (possibly with a “correction”).

Of course, too rapid and unstoppable growth, like the one we recently observed, reinforces the speculative components of cryptocurrency prices, threatening cryptocurrency rates not only with a serious decline in the final segment with growth, but also, possibly, with a long price depression following it.

Prospects and opportunities for the cryptocurrency market

The growing market provides favorable prospects for both experienced traders and those who have just entered the cryptocurrency.

Bull traders (i.e., buying an asset during price declines and selling it when the price rises) see the advantages of a rising market in that when entering the market at the wrong point (when the purchase of an asset is followed by a local decrease in price, instead of the expected increase), there is enough high chances to wait for the recovery and price growth in a reasonable time.

For novice traders who are just getting acquainted with cryptocurrencies, the growing market is good because they get acquainted with cryptocurrencies in an environment of price optimism, which provides newcomers with a certain psychological stability.

It is important to understand that growth cannot be endless, so you need to assess the situation on the market calmly and carefully. This is one of the main rules of working in the cryptocurrency market.

For information on what mistakes you should not make in trading, read the article “10 Trader's Mistakes. How to avoid them?

Of course, along with the possibility of “corrective” trends, we can expect the development of favorable trends in the market. According to some forecasts, 2018 could be the “year of altcoins”, providing them with opportunities for growth.

Trends in the altcoin market are well illustrated by Chart 2. Here are the changes in the total capitalization of the altcoin market, i.e. all cryptocurrencies except BTC between January 2017 and January 2018.

Market trends could not but affect the development of the EXMO cryptocurrency platform. The exchange team summed up the results of the past year. So, in 2017, more than 1,000,000 users were registered on the platform, and the number of active traders per day exceeded 100,000 people. The number of currency pairs available on the platform was also increased from 13 to 46 in 2017.

Event Horizon: How the Cryptocurrency Market Grows in 2017

So the year 2017 has come to an end, which, undoubtedly, turned out to be one of the most successful for the entire crypto industry. It turned out to be extremely eventful: many cryptocurrencies grew exponentially, there was a real boom in ICOs, and on the Internet people began to be interested in bitcoin much more than Justin Bieber and even Donald Trump.

It is time to sum up some results and find out which coins grew most dynamically, how much the market as a whole has grown, how things are going with bitcoin volatility, and what forecasts experts give for the next year.

Market capitalization

question about economic sense the concept of "capitalization" is one of the most controversial. On the one hand, the capitalization of a cryptocurrency is the product of its supply and the current weighted average price of a coin. On the other hand, each digital asset has its own emission volume and its own monetary policy, and therefore comparing some coins with others by capitalization is a rather controversial undertaking.

Nevertheless, in our opinion, it is possible and even necessary to analyze the dynamics of the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market as a whole. So, some coins appear, while others disappear without a trace or fall in price to indecently low values. However, the total value of the market as a whole is growing, and this must be reckoned with.

At the very least, this means that more and more people are interested in cryptocurrencies and enter this market, increasing its capitalization. The price depends on demand, which means that if there was no widespread interest in cryptocurrencies, then the capitalization of digital assets would not grow so dynamically.

In 2017, like mushrooms after the rain, new cryptocurrency hedge funds appeared. Largely thanks to futures on the CME and CBOE exchanges, even the most “hard-nosed” giants such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan began to pay attention to bitcoin.

Those who used to “spill dirt” on bitcoin now reckon with it and no longer scatter stereotyped phrases about “financial pyramids” and “unsupported by anything”, do not perceive cryptocurrency only as a “tool for laundering criminal proceeds”.

So, if on the first day of 2017 the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market was only $17.7 billion, by December 29 this figure reached $592 billion.

Data: Coinmarketcap

Thus, over the year the market grew by about 33 times. This suggests the idea that a well-diversified and balanced portfolio of cryptocurrencies formed at the beginning of the year would bring a good profit to its owner.

This year, the first cryptocurrency was also rapidly growing in price. A logical question arises: what is more profitable - holding bitcoin or investing in a portfolio of carefully selected cryptocurrencies?

How did bitcoin grow in 2017?

For "digital gold" this year was perhaps one of the most successful. The development of infrastructure, the interest of institutional investors and the general public, the implementation of SegWit and the legalization of bitcoin in Japan are just some of the main factors in the growth of the price of the first cryptocurrency.

If on the first day of the outgoing year bitcoin for the first time since 2013 overcame the $1,000 mark, then by mid-December it was actively testing the $20,000 mark. exchange Bitfinex).

Data: Coinmarketcap

The chart below illustrates how much, in percentage terms, bitcoin has grown over the past six months, a year, two years, and five years:

Data: CoinDance

Thus, severely limited supply and exponentially growing demand work wonders.

If we compare the growth dynamics of the market as a whole and the price of bitcoin, then in percentage terms the indicators will be quite comparable. Therefore, in a portfolio that is balanced in terms of risk / return, a significant share may well be allocated to bitcoin.

The thesis that among all cryptocurrencies Bitcoin has the highest Sharpe ratio is confirmed in the infographic taken from woobull.com:

Many famous economists and old-timers financial market scold bitcoin for its high volatility. However, by examining the following chart, we can conclude that over time, the average range of Bitcoin price fluctuations is decreasing:

Currently, bitcoin is much more liquid than before, and its volatility does not greatly exceed many commodities and popular fiat currencies.

Now less and less people doubt that the first cryptocurrency is an attractive investment object. On the other hand, a crypto-enthusiast does not live by bitcoin alone. Many will be interested to know how the most liquid altcoins grew in 2017, so that later, probably, they will be included in their crypto portfolio.

Growth record holders among altcoins

According to the blocklink.info service, the absolute record holder for price growth is the Ripple (XRP) cryptocurrency, which has grown by more than 24,000% over the year (the last column of the table):

Data as of 12/29/2017

It is also clear from the data in the table that DASH, Ethereum and Litecoin cryptocurrencies grew significantly (albeit with a large lag behind XRP) in 2017. These digital assets can already be considered “old-timers” of the market, because they are traditional regulars at the top of the Coinmarketcap rating.

It is also worth noting an interesting detail - the cryptocurrency market as a whole (indicated in the table as “CryptoCurrencies”) grew more actively than bitcoin (3092% vs. 1397%). Monero and Ethereum Classic also showed quite good dynamics in 2017.

Among other things, data from the Blocklink service confirms that currently investments in cryptocurrency are many times over. more profitable than investments in shares largest companies, including Alibaba, PayPal, Amazon and.

From " latest discoveries” on the market, the Verge cryptocurrency (XVG) can be distinguished. Back in early December, the price of one XVG coin did not exceed $0.006, and today the weighted average exchange rate is $0.16.

Is it too late to enter this market now?

Many experts believe that the growth limit of bitcoin and other liquid cryptocurrencies is still far away. In particular, Fundstrat Global Advisors analyst Tom Lee is confident in the long-term growth prospects of the market. His fund regularly buys bitcoins on price rollbacks, while Lee himself predicts a second test of the $20,000 level in mid-2018.

A less conservative forecast for bitcoin comes from investor and billionaire Mike Novogratz. He is confident that by the end of next year, "digital gold" will cost $40,000. The Ethereum cryptocurrency, the investor believes, can grow by about three times more.

The long-term forecast of the head of Standpoint Research Ronnie Moas is interesting. He believes that due to the “breathtaking imbalance of supply and demand”, bitcoin can soar to levels in the region of $400,000.

Moas compares bitcoin to Amazon stock, which over the past 15 years had to be “held” and bought “at the bottom”.

In August, he suggested that the total capitalization in ten years could grow to $2 trillion.

Convinced that the current price of bitcoin has not reached the limit, the owner of the Golden State Warriors basketball club and founder of the venture capital firm Social Capital Partnership Chamath Palihapitiya. In three or four years, he believes, Bitcoin will be bought at $100,000, and in 20 years it could be worth as much as a million dollars. At one time, Palihapitiya bought bitcoin at $100.

Bitcoin billionaires, the Winklevoss brothers, are completely sure that BTC is able to grow another twenty times and even replace gold. Despite the multiple growth since the beginning of the year, the twins believe that bitcoin is only at the beginning of the “long journey”.

A very bullish forecast for the cryptocurrency market is given by Breadwallet co-founder Aaron Lasher. He believes that in ten years the capitalization of bitcoin alone will reach five trillion dollars. At the same time, he urges crypto investors not to lose vigilance, because along with the "bulls" there are always "bears" that can exert severe pressure on the market.

Also, according to Lasher, cryptocurrencies can serve as useful tools for portfolio diversification, hedging tools and / or assets with high potential growth and associated risks. It all depends on the financial goals of the investor.

There are always pessimists among the experts, who can often pass themselves off as "realists". So, in early December, Saxo Bank published the traditional list of provocative and shocking forecasts for 2018.

It notes that at some point in 2018, the price of bitcoin will exceed $60,000. However, soon, analysts are sure, some countries will “knock the ground out from under bitcoin.”

As a result, by the beginning of 2019, “digital gold” will fall in price to $1,000.

Unlike Saxo Bank, cryptocurrency fund Blocktower Capital appears to be much more optimistic. A vivid confirmation of this thesis can be considered the purchase by the fund of a call option for 275 bitcoins at $50,000 at the end of December 2018. The option premium paid was $1 million.

Perhaps, many also remember the forecast of the eloquent crypto enthusiast and CEO of MGT Capital Investments John McAfee. In July, he promised to “eat his penis on TV” if the price of bitcoin does not reach $500,000 in three years.

Just a few months later, McAfee upped the ante, suggesting that "digital gold" would be worth a million dollars in 2020. Thus, the creator of the McAfee antivirus proved to be a convinced and courageous bitcoin maximalist, who considers the first cryptocurrency to be the best long-term investment.

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History of Gazprom capitalization: dynamics by years

PJSC Gazprom is one of the largest energy companies in the world engaged in the full cycle of exploitation of natural resources: exploration, production, transportation, processing, storage and sale. The organization is interested in two types of fuel:

• Oil (included in the TOP-3 oil producing enterprises in Russia);
• Natural gas and gas condensate (the concern owns 17% of global gas reserves and 72% of Russian ones).

In the future, the above figures are likely to increase, as currently there is an active development of gas fields in many regions of Russia and in other countries of the world.

The company also develops alternative energy sources, however, this area is secondary and farmed out subsidiaries Gazprom.

Maintenance of such capacities would be impossible without an extended network of main gas pipelines with a total length of more than 170,000 kilometers.

Until 2013, the organization remained the only gas exporter from the Russian Federation, however, to date, this kind of monopoly has been preserved only in relation to pipeline gas.

In addition to the energy sector, the concern has many subsidiaries and affiliated companies, the most famous of which are Gazprombank and Gazpromneft.

History of share capital

Gazprom was founded in 1990 by transforming the Ministry of Gas Industry of the USSR into a single state enterprise. The concern was headed by Viktor Chernomyrdin, who, in fact, retained his former post (before that, he headed the aforementioned ministry).

The subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union had a negative impact on the company, since the collapse of the USSR meant the loss of property (pipelines, processing stations, sources of raw materials), which was located on the territories of other Soviet republics.

Nevertheless, despite financial difficulties, until the end of August 1992, Gazprom was wholly owned by the state.

November 5, 1992 the company was transformed into Joint-Stock Company, and in April 1994, along with market reforms in the Russian Federation, privatization began. According to the charter of the organization, foreign citizens in total could have no more than 9% of the shares.

The bulk of the shares were sold in 1998-2000, when Gazprom was required to pay billions in tax debts. By 2004, only 38.7% of the shares remained in the hands of the state.

In the course of a series of transactions, this figure increased to 50.01%, and in December 2005 the State Duma passed a law establishing a minimum state stake at 50% plus one share, foreign holders were allowed to own 20% of the company's shares (this restriction was then removed).

As of December 1, 2017, 50.23% of the shares are controlled by the Russian Federation (owned directly or by state corporations), 26.86% are held by the owners of ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), 22.91% are the property of other registered persons. The organization's securities are traded on various exchanges (Moscow Exchange, London Stock Exchange, etc.).

Dynamics by years

Capitalization of Gazprom by years, in billion dollars:

The growth of indicators on the graph in 1997-98 is mainly due to tax breaks and state protection, which the company received thanks to the appointment of Viktor Chernomyrdin to the post of Prime Minister of the Russian Federation. His resignation in 1998 as well economic crisis seriously affected the quotations of the concern.

The growth that followed continued until May 2008, when capitalization rose to $364.8 billion. At about the same time, Alexei Miller, chairman of the board of Gazprom, said that in 7-8 years capitalization should grow to 1 trillion. However, a number of factors (economic crisis, falling demand for energy resources, image scandals, etc.)

) led to a sharp decline and depreciation of the holding.

Given that the dependence of European consumers on Russian gas has not disappeared, the company gradually restored its position. But the growth in value was modest and at a new peak in the spring of 2011, the concern is far from pre-crisis figures.

Then again there was a steady decline, and in 2014 there was a sharp collapse in quotations due to the conflict in Ukraine. Having previously imported large volumes of gas, Kyiv has sharply reduced the level of consumption of Russian energy carriers.

The company was also hit by the imposition of sanctions, since Gazprom, in addition to pursuing its commercial interests, is also an instrument of Russia's foreign economic and foreign policy influence.

Capitalization of Gazprom today

At the beginning of December 2017, the Russian “national treasure” was estimated at about $53.5 billion. Compared to the optimistic forecasts of “capitalization of 1 trillion”, the result is more than modest. However, it is not worth burying the gas giant prematurely - such low numbers are a standard story for Russian companies, many of which are significantly undervalued.

For example, Apple is estimated at 18 times more expensive than Gazprom, but at the same time its EBITDA (pre-tax profit) is only 1.5 times less. That is, an American corporation, earning not much more, has simply prohibitive value in comparison with a Russian concern.

In addition, Gazprom has $10 trillion in undeveloped reserves at its disposal (and these are only confirmed), the company's shares have a good dividend yield (6.5% versus 3.5% for foreign peers), and the return on capital is much higher than average by industry (5.9% vs. 3%). There is a clear underestimation Russian company due to a number of reasons:

• Unattractive investment climate;
• Unstable national currency (Russian ruble);
• Low efficiency of Gazprom's investment activities.

Against the background of all of the above, talk about the possible bankruptcy of the gas concern is mostly groundless. Even taking into account multibillion-dollar investments in new projects and not the most far-sighted pricing policy no financial shocks threaten the company in the near future.

In the event that someday Gazprom nevertheless goes bankrupt, it is natural that this will result in negative consequences for many citizens of the country. Today, the corporation provides 400,000 jobs and provides gas to almost the entire population and enterprises of the Russian Federation. Consequently, a large number of people will be left without work, and gas prices will skyrocket.

It is also worth noting that the state budget of the Russian Federation is significantly tied to the work of the concern (the company's income provided 8% of the country's GDP). Therefore, bankruptcy would seriously affect both the general welfare of the state and the stability of the economy as a whole.

Analyst forecasts

Experts suggest that Gazprom's market capitalization is unlikely to increase significantly in the coming years, as the company simply does not have the right resources and leverage.

As mentioned above, there is a serious underestimation of Gazprom in the market, but given the current foreign policy situation, the situation in this area will not improve in the near future.

Factors that scare off potential investors (state interference in the activities of the gas corporation, economic sanctions, political problems) will be relevant for a long time, and therefore one should not expect much progress.

This will require a significant qualitative breakthrough in the field of innovation and technology. It will not be possible to achieve imaginary growth, as, for example, in the situation with Apple, since Gazprom represents the real sector of the economy.

In fact, even in improbable scenarios (for example, if the dollar depreciates several times and the subsequent increase in the attractiveness of energy resources from the Russian Federation), a strong increase in the shares of the “national treasure” is unlikely. After all, such shocks, as a rule, affect the entire world economy, significantly reducing the overall demand for energy resources.

Nevertheless, many analysts are confident that a slight increase in quotes for Gazprom shares is still quite possible. The reason for this should be the previously mentioned underestimation of the company, as well as the planned increase in selling export prices in the European direction.

Gazprom projects

In 2017, the gas giant actively invested in future projects. Conventionally, they should be divided into two groups: the development of new fields and the construction of gas pipelines. The first category includes the following programs:

• The Yamal megaproject is the construction of a gas production center on the Yamal Peninsula, which in the future will become the main source of energy in Russia. Already, 67.5 billion cubic meters are being produced there. m. of gas. In the future, it is planned to increase this figure to 360 billion cubic meters. m. of gas per year.
• The Eastern Gas Program is a state project to create in the east of the country unified system production, processing and transportation of gas. On this moment work is underway to launch four gas production centers: the Kovykta and Chayandinskoye fields, Kamchatka and Sakhalin-3.
• LNG projects - involve the construction of plants for the production of liquefied natural gas in the regions natural gas(Sakhalin-2, Vladivostok-LNG, Baltic LNG, Kaliningrad-LNG).

To transport huge volumes of gas that will be supplied by the fields listed above, Gazprom is building three large gas pipelines at once:

• The Power of Siberia is a modern transportation system in the east of Russia, with a planned length of 3,000 km. Part of the gas pipeline sections will run along hard-to-reach natural routes (permafrost, mountain ranges, wetlands and seismically active areas).
• Nord Stream 2 is an export gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, passing through the Baltic Sea. It will increase the volume of Russian gas supplies abroad. The length of the new route is 1200 km.
• Turkish Stream is a gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey passing through the Black Sea.

  The goal of the project is to expand gas export channels to Turkey and Southern Europe.

Based on the foregoing, it can be concluded that some significant changes in the capitalization of "Gazprom" in the direction of growth or decline are unlikely. Raising the value of the company is hampered by the concern's weak investment attractiveness and a number of foreign policy factors. At the same time, the corporation itself has never carried out intentional actions to increase capitalization.

On the other hand, the demand for Russian gas from Europe will not go away for many more years (there is simply no alternative yet), and all the conflicts that arise do not significantly affect the volume of supplies. Therefore, there is no need to seriously talk about the decline in Gazprom's quotations, and even more so about bankruptcy.

The study presents data on the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market and the ICO market in 2017.

1. General analysis of the market of cryptocurrencies and assets (per quarter, year). Market dynamics in 2017

1.1. General analysis of the cryptocurrency and asset market

Tab. 1.1. Quarterly dynamics of the crypto market and top 10 cryptocurrencies by capitalization from 01/01/2017 to 01/01/2018

Over the past 2017, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies (Total Market Capitalization) increased by almost 600 billion US dollars, from 17.7 to 612.9 billion US dollars, i.e. 34.6 times (as of January 01, 2018 00:00 UTC; see Table 1.1). On fig. 1 shows the evolution of the crypto market in 2017.

The most intensive growth in the capitalization of the crypto market was in November-December 2017, and on December 21, the capitalization exceeded 650 billion US dollars, followed by a slight correction. General gain occurred mainly due to the increase in the capitalization of Bitcoin by about 220 billion US dollars, from 15.5 to 236.7 billion US dollars, in addition, the capitalization of altcoins increased by 374 billion US dollars, from 2.2 to 376.2 billion US dollars . At the same time, the total number of types of cryptocurrencies and crypto assets on the exchange increased from 617 to 1,335 units over the year (according to coinmarketcap.com), i.e. more than 2 times. Due to the emergence of a large number of competing altcoins, the share of the main cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, in the market decreased quite significantly over the year - from 87.5% to 38.6%. On fig. 2 and 3 show the structure of the crypto market in terms of capitalization (USDbillion) and dominance (%) at the beginning of 2017 and 2018.

The structure of the crypto market changed intensively during 2017, although Bitcoin has always been the leader in terms of capitalization. The second, third and fourth places were most often occupied by the main altcoins: Ethereum, Ripple and Bitcoin Cash, which appeared as a result of the Bitcoin hard fork on August 1. Thus, the share of the Ethereum cryptocurrency, which was 3.9% at the beginning of 2017, reached 27.3 by July 1 %, but decreased to 11.9% by the end of the year, as a result of which Ripple took the second place in terms of capitalization, the rate of which increased significantly in 2017 (Fig. 6).

In turn, the Bitcoin exchange rate in 2017 increased by more than 14 times, from $964 to $14,112. 4 shows the dynamics of this growth.

On fig. Figure 4 shows how actively the crypto market reacted to the news about the start of trading in Bitcoin futures on the Cboe Global Markets (December 10, 2017) and CME Group (December 18, 2017) exchanges. Immediately before the start of trading in Cboe futures, the Bitcoin exchange rate exceeded several thresholds at once. In just two weeks (from November 26 to December 08, 2017), it doubled, from $9,000 to $18,000. However, in the next two days, there was a correction, and by the beginning of trading on Cboe (12/10/2017), the rate fell up to $13,300 - 15,500.

Similarly, prior to the start of futures trading on the world's largest commodities exchange, CME Group, the price of Bitcoin recovered in a week and exceeded $20,000 (12/17/2017), but just a day before the start of trading, by 12/18/2017, there was again a small correction to $18,500-19,000. After the launch of CME Group trading in Bitcoin futures, its rate fell even to $12,000 in four days (December 22, 2017), but gradually recovered and until the end of December, BTC traded in the range from $12,300 to $16 800.

It can be assumed that immediately before the start of trading in Bitcoin futures (one to two weeks), a sufficiently large amount of cryptocurrency was bought up to ensure that its exchange rate could be adjusted in the future. Obviously, the fact that Bitcoin was recognized as a valuable financial asset and the emergence of futures had a positive impact on the crypto market in general and attracted additional attention to this currency, and, consequently, caused additional demand for it.

The above data indicates the high liquidity of the crypto market and the readiness of traders to extract additional profits due to short-term changes in rates. At the same time, there are many individual traders and few large institutional players on the crypto market. However, if such players arrive, the economy of the crypto market may undergo significant changes associated with the emergence of new risk hedging mechanisms (futures contracts), the emergence of high-frequency robots that make transactions in microseconds based on the developed trading algorithms, and an increase in the influence financial funds. As you know, Goldman Sachs, one of the largest financial and investment companies, is already helping its clients buy and sell Bitcoin futures contracts. In the future, the number of financial derivatives on the crypto market will increase, which will attract large funds and require the introduction of clearer rules for its regulation.

To analyze the activity of trading on crypto exchanges in 2017, below is the quarterly dynamics of the rates of cryptocurrencies included in the top 10 in terms of capitalization (Fig. 5).

On fig. 5 shows that the fourth quarter of 2017 was the most successful for the crypto market and significantly influenced the rates of the main cryptocurrencies. Especially noticeable in the period from October 1, 2017 to January 1, 2018, the rate of the following cryptocurrencies increased:

• Cardano - from $0.022 to $0.72 (more than 32 times)
• Stellar - from $0.0135 to $0.36 (more than 25 times)
• Ripple - from $0.198 to $2.30 (more than 10 times)

In table. Table 1.2 shows the results of calculations of the quarterly dynamics of the crypto market and the top 10 cryptocurrencies by capitalization from 01/01/2017 to 01/01/2018 in percent. The values ​​in USD from Table 1 are taken as a basis. 1.1.

Tab. 1.2. Quarterly dynamics of the crypto market and top 10 cryptocurrencies by capitalization from 01/01/2017 to 01/01/2018 (in %)

Many media outlets have repeatedly called 2017 the year of cryptocurrencies. And, indeed, the growth of the rates of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by capitalization in 2017 was truly a record (see Fig. 6). For example, the Ripple rate increased by 35 160% over the year, from $0.006523 to $2.30, i.e. 352.6 times.

The growth of rates for the fourth quarter of 2017 is shown in Fig. 7.

In table. Table 1.3 presents the key events of 2017 that influenced the rate of dominant cryptocurrencies and the crypto market as a whole, indicating the nature and direction of their influence.

Tab. 1.3. Key events that influenced the crypto market in 2017

In table. Table 1.4 presents a list of events, information about which can affect both the rate of individual cryptocurrencies and the market as a whole.

Tab. 1.4. Events that may affect the rate of cryptocurrencies (cryptomarket) in 2018

2. General market analysisICOfor 2017

2.1. Brief market overview (important events for 2017)

• 01/08/2017 – 2016: The Year Blockchain ICOs Disrupted Venture Capital
• 01/24/2017 – Watch Out – The ICOs Are Coming
• 03/01/2017 – CoinDesk Research: Speculation Driving Boom in Blockchain ‘ICOs’
• 03/10/2017 – Investment Firm Blockchain Capital is Launching a $10 Million ICO
• 04/16/2017 – Blockchain Capital Raises $10 Million ICO for VC Startup Fund
• 25.04.2017 –
• 05/06/2017 – Blockchain Asset Fund TaaS Raises $7.7 Million Through ICO
• 18.05.2017 –
• 01.06.2017 –
• 06/29/2017 – Pantera Capital to Raise $100 Million for ICO Fund
• 07/17/2017 – $7 Million Lost in CoinDash ICO Hack
• 07/21/2017 – ICO Mania: $1.2 Billion Raised in 2017, $600 Million in the Last 30 Days
• 08/04/2017 – Filecoin startup raises $52 million ahead of ICO
• 08/22/2017 – Estonia is preparing to host the world's first public ICO
• 09/08/2017 – Filecoin platform sets a new record for ICO - $257 million
• 09/27/2017 – Kik completes ICO with $98.8 million investment
• 07.10.2017 –
• 10/27/2017 – Billionaire Warren Buffett: Bitcoin is a “real bubble”
• 11/17/2017 – Tezos investors made another attempt to recover funds through the court
• 11/29/2017 – Tokenized Fund-of-Funds to Raise $100 Million Via ICO
• 12/04/2017 – SEC Accuses PlexCoin ICO Organizers of Fraud
• 12/22/2017 – Belarus legalizes mining and operations with cryptocurrencies

2.2. Aggregated indicators of the dynamics and efficiency of the market of past (ended, fromcompleted) ICO

To assess the dynamics and efficiency of the market of successfully completed and/or listed ICOs, a set of tools is offered (see Table 2.1).

Tab. 2.1. Tools for evaluating the effectiveness of the market successfully completed and / or entered the exchangeICO

Tab. 2.2. Aggregated indicators of the dynamics and efficiency of the market of past (ended,Completed) ICOin 2017

The data from the beginning of 2017 has been adjusted to reflect the emergence of more complete information on past ICOs. As a result, the total amount of funds raised in 2017 amounted to more than 6 billion US dollars (taking into account the amount of funds raised through 382 ICOs). During the fourth quarter of 2017, ICO collections exceeded $3.1 billion. This amount is made up of the results of the 196 most successful completed ICOs, with the largest amount raised approximately $258 million (ICO Hdac). The average amount of funds raised per project is $16 million. More detailed data on the main ICOs of the past year are presented in Table. 2.3.

2.3. Quantitative analysis of the ICO market

1. The amount of funds raised and the number of ICOs

Tab. 2.3.The amount of funds raised and the number of ICOs

Tab. 2.3 shows that the largest number ICO funds were raised in June and December 2017.

2. Quarterly analysis of the top ICOs of 2017

Tab. 2.4.Top 10 ICOs by Funds Raised, Q1 2017

In table. 2.4 shows the top 10 ICOs successfully completed in the first quarter of 2017.

At the moment, according to the Token Performance indicator, all projects from the top 10 have values ​​from 0.73x to 101.85x. One of the most successful ICOs in terms of the amount of funds raised was the ChronoBank project, and in terms of the process of entering the stock exchange, the Augmentors project, because. it is this project that has the Current Token Price to Token Sale Price ratio of 101.85x. When considering this indicator, one should take into account the completion date of the Augmentors ICO (February 2017), i.e. growth of 101.85 times occurred in about 10 months.

On fig. Table 2.2 shows the top ten ICOs completed from January to March 2017.

Tab. 2.5.Top 10 ICOs by Funds Raised, Q2 2017

In table. Table 2.5 shows the top 10 ICOs successfully completed in the second quarter of 2017.

The EOS project turned out to be the leader in terms of funds raised. The highest value in terms of "Efficiency" (Token Performance), i.e. the best ratio of Current Token Price to Token Sale Price is 16.25x and belongs to ICO Status. Its market capitalization is this moment is about 2 billion US dollars.

On fig. Table 2.3 shows the top ten ICOs completed from April to June 2017.

Tab. 2.6.Top 10 ICOs by Funds Raised, Q3 2017

In table. Table 2.6 shows the top 10 ICOs successfully completed in the third quarter of 2017.

The Filecoin project turned out to be the leader in terms of funds raised. the best ratio of Current Token Price to Token Sale Price is 62.14x and belongs to ICO ICON. Its market capitalization is currently around $2.7 billion.

On fig. 2.4 shows the top ten ICOs completed from July to September 2017.

Tab. 2.7.Top 10 ICOs by Funds Raised, Q4 2017

In table. 2.7 shows the top 10 ICOs successfully completed in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The Hdac project turned out to be the leader in terms of the amount of funds raised and the most successful throughout the ICO. It raised $1 million more than the Filecoin project mentioned above, which until now held the top spot in terms of fees.

Hdac is an acronym for Hyundai Digital Asset Currency. This is a hybrid project that creates a giant, constantly evolving information platform based on the blockchain and the Internet of Things (IoT). This project offers an ecosystem with public (Public) and private (Private) keys to interact with the devices around you, the number of which will constantly grow (smart home, smart car, smartphone, smart watch, TV, refrigerator, stove, kettle, etc. .). The Hdac configuration creates a reliable, confidential, consistent and controlled communication system that will allow you to carry out fast transactions, increase the convenience of all types of payments: taxes, settlements with clients, investments, loans, etc.

On fig. Table 2.5 shows the top ten ICOs completed from November to December 2017.

3. TopICOsince the beginning of 2017

In table. Table 2.8 shows the top 10 largest ICOs in terms of funds raised in 2017, most of which fall into the Infrastructure category.

Tab. 2.8.Top 10 ICOs in terms of funds raised in 2017

Over the past 2017, 382 projects successfully completed ICOs, each of which raised more than 100 thousand US dollars, while the total amount of funds raised was at least 6 billion US dollars. The leader of the year was the Hdac project ($258 million).

Glossary